Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, but a decrease of 3.04 trillion yuan compared to June, falling short of the expected 1.41 trillion yuan[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in July was 9.0%, slightly below the expected 9.08%[2] - New RMB loans in July were -426.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year-on-year and a drop of 2.79 trillion yuan from June[2] Group 2: Financing Structure and Trends - Government bond financing and direct financing supported new social financing, with notable increases in government bonds, corporate bonds, stock financing, and trust loans compared to the previous year[2] - The proportion of government bonds in the financing structure increased by 0.24 percentage points from June, while RMB loans decreased by 0.25 percentage points[2] - M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year in July, while M1 and M0 grew by 5.6% and 11.8%, respectively[2] Group 3: Deposit and Loan Dynamics - In July, new deposits totaled 500 billion yuan, with significant increases in non-bank deposits (2.14 trillion yuan) and fiscal deposits (770 billion yuan), while corporate and resident deposits decreased by 1.46 trillion yuan and 1.11 trillion yuan, respectively[2] - New loans were weak, with a total decrease of 500 billion yuan, primarily driven by declines in medium and long-term loans and residential loans[2] - The decline in residential medium and long-term loans indicates weakening demand in the real estate market, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 billion yuan[2] Group 4: Policy Implications and Economic Outlook - The importance of boosting domestic demand has increased, with government policies focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations[2] - The report suggests that internal demand will be a key driver for economic growth in the medium to long term, alongside potential fiscal and monetary policy adjustments[2] - Risks include a potential rise in global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and complex international situations[2]

固收 如何看待社融数据、货政报告 20250817 摘要 当前贷款需求疲软，降息预期下降，财政政策成为主要经济推动力， OMLO 降息效果减弱。金融行业反内卷，7 月新增贷款超季节性回落， 可能导致银行缩表，影响整体经济。 银行资产负债表可能因债券和贷款受限而收缩，导致市场上优质资产减 少，"资产荒"逻辑减弱。信贷和债券需求降低，未来优质投资机会将 更加稀缺。 贴息政策通过补贴降低贷款利率，绕过传统银行间放贷流程，但操作并 不顺畅，因此下半年债市利好预期谨慎。 货币政策重心在于直接支持实体经济，而非依赖银行间市场流动性投放 或大幅降息。M2 增速上升至 8.8%，M1 增速显著变化，反映居民风险 偏好提升，存款转移至风险资产。 债市面临预期变化带来的波动，缺乏强有力利好支撑。10 年期国债收益 率可能因预期变化回调 30-40 个基点。30 年期国债相对 10 年期国债已 跌透，提供一定上涨空间。 预计国债收益率曲线可能继续呈现弱势，存在上行压力。30 年期与 10 年期国债利差调整幅度较大，结构性策略如做平曲线可能更具优势。 信用债市场情绪偏弱，缺乏趋势性行情，但科创债和绿色金融债等结构 性机会值得关注。机 ...

Financial Data Overview - In July, new social financing (社融) in China amounted to CNY 1.16 trillion, below the expected CNY 1.41 trillion[2] - New RMB loans decreased by CNY 500 billion, contrary to the expected decrease of CNY 150 billion[2] - M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth of 8.3%[2] Social Financing Insights - July's social financing data shows resilience in total volume but significant structural differentiation, with a year-on-year increase of CNY 389.3 billion, raising the growth rate to 9.0%[5] - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by government financing, contributing 142.8% to the year-on-year increment, and direct financing, contributing 26.4%[5][11] - New credit unexpectedly fell to -CNY 500 billion, marking a rare negative growth, with both household and corporate loans declining[5] Loan and Deposit Trends - New loans fell to a historical low, with a wide measure showing a decrease of CNY 500 billion, down CNY 3.1 trillion year-on-year[7][12] - Total deposits increased by CNY 500 billion, with M2 growth accelerating to 8.8%[24] - Household loans shrank by CNY 4.89 trillion, indicating weak consumer demand despite seasonal factors[15] Future Outlook - The recovery of private sector credit faces two main challenges: the need for a substantial recovery in real estate sales and improvements in household income expectations[6] - Continued government financing and low interest rates are expected to support total social financing, but private credit remains weak, potentially affecting monetary transmission efficiency[6]

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Loan Data - In July, new social financing (社融) was 1.16 trillion yuan, below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.63 trillion yuan[1] - New RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, contrasting with the expected increase of 3 billion yuan, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 3.1 billion yuan[4] - M2 growth accelerated to 8.8% year-on-year, up from 8.3% in June, exceeding the expected 8.3%[7] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The net issuance of government bonds in July was 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 555.9 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing approximately 4.1 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of social financing[4] - Total net issuance of government bonds for the first seven months reached 8.9 trillion yuan, up by 4.9 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a proactive fiscal policy[1] - Broad fiscal spending grew by 8.9% in the first half of the year, significantly higher than the -2.8% in the same period last year[6] Group 3: Loan Demand and Economic Indicators - The year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans fell to 6.9% in July from 7.1% in June, reflecting weak private sector loan demand[4] - July saw a decrease of 3.1 billion yuan in new short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for residents, primarily due to weakened real estate demand[6] - The month-on-month growth rate of social financing adjusted for seasonality increased from 8.4% in June to 9.6% in July, indicating a potential stabilization in short-term economic growth[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is bullish, and for coking coal is also bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rumor of crude steel production restrictions has boosted the sentiment of the sector, and coal and coke are oscillating. The market tends to trade policy expectations due to the combination of economic pressure and policy relaxation expectations. The social financing data in June exceeded expectations, and the short - term bullish sentiment remains strong. However, the possible implementation of steel production control may suppress the price increase of coal and coke spot, but it may also drive the overall repair of industrial chain profits. Currently, coking coal faces resistance after basis repair and may have short - term correction pressure [1][4][5] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month, with significant increases in government and corporate financing [1] 3.2 Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of coking coal increased, while the futures price oscillated downward. The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal was 950 yuan/ton, the active contract was 897 yuan/ton (-14.5), the basis was 73 yuan/ton (+14.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -46.5 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Mine production resumed, but the intensity was lower than expected. The demand contracted. The operating rate of 523 mines was 85.52% (+1.7), and that of 110 coal washing plants was 62.32% (+2.6). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72% (-0.48) [2] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory decreased, and downstream inventory increased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 377.18 million tons (-32.43), that of coal washing plants was 197.07 million tons (-17.91), that of 247 steel mills was 782.93 million tons (-6.76), that of 230 coking enterprises was 752.44 million tons (+36), and the port inventory was 321.64 million tons (+12.37) [2] 3.3 Coke - **Spot and Futures**: There is an expectation of spot price increase, and the futures price oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton, and some steel mills in Tianjin accepted the first - round spot price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The active contract was 1494.5 yuan/ton (-19.5), the basis was -183 yuan/ton (+19.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -44 yuan/ton (+2.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Both supply and demand declined, but there was still a gap. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72% (-0.48), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.9% (-0.39), and the daily average pig iron output was 239.81 million tons (-1.04) [3] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory decreased, and downstream inventory increased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 59.58 million tons (-2.02), that of 247 steel mills was 637.8 million tons (+0.31), and the port inventory was 200.08 million tons (+8.96) [3] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs to July 31. The market's attitude towards tariffs is mainly risk - prevention without further pricing. Domestically, the anti - involution campaign continues to develop, and the social financing data in June exceeded expectations. For coking coal, mine production resumed but was less than expected, and the spot trading volume reached a new high this year. For coke, some steel mills accepted a 50 - yuan/ton spot price increase. The blast furnace profit remained at around 180 yuan. The rumor of crude steel production restrictions increased, and the pig iron output declined, but the supply and demand of coke remained tight. It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and hold long positions in JM09 while reducing positions at high prices in a timely manner [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] Core Viewpoints - The base spread repair is nearing its end, and coal and coke are oscillating [1] - The market tends to trade on policy expectations due to the combination of economic pressure and policy relaxation expectations. The short - term bullish sentiment remains strong [5] - For coking coal, although mine production is increasing, downstream restocking enthusiasm persists. For coke, the supply - demand gap remains despite a decline in both supply and demand, and industry chain profits are expected to transfer from steel to furnace materials [5] - It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and hold long positions in JM09 while reducing positions at high prices in a timely manner [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: Spot prices are rising, while futures are oscillating. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 950 yuan/ton (+23), and the active contract is 911.5 yuan/ton (-8.5). The base spread is 58.5 yuan/ton (+31.5), and the September - January spread is - 50.5 yuan/ton (-7) [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Mine production is resuming, while demand is contracting. The operating rate of 523 mines is 85.52% (+1.7), and that of 110 coal - washing plants is 62.32% (+2.6). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.72% (-0.48) [2] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 377.18 million tons (-32.43), and that of coal - washing plants is 197.07 million tons (-17.91). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 782.93 million tons (-6.76), that of 230 coking enterprises is 752.44 (+36), and port inventory is 321.64 million tons (+12.37) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures**: Spot price increases have partially taken effect, and futures are rising. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1220 yuan/ton (-0), and some steel mills in Tianjin have accepted the first - round spot price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The active contract is 1514 yuan/ton (-11). The base spread is - 202 yuan/ton (+11), and the September - January spread is - 46.5 yuan/ton (-2.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Both supply and demand have declined, but the gap remains. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.72% (-0.48). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 89.9% (-0.39), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.3981 million tons (-1.04) [3] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 59.58 million tons (-2.02), that of 247 steel mills is 637.8 million tons (+0.31), and port inventory is 200.08 million tons (+8.96) [3] Strategy and Market Environment - **Tariff and Policy**: Trump extended the reciprocal tariff suspension period to July 31. China's reciprocal tariffs will start on August 12. The market is mainly focused on risk prevention regarding tariffs [4] - **Social Financing**: In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month [1] - **Anti - Involution**: The anti - involution campaign is ongoing, and this round of capacity reduction may be more moderate and longer - term [4]

Group 1: Monetary Indicators - In June, the new social financing scale reached 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - The year-on-year growth of M1 rose to 4.6% in June from 2.3% in May, while M2 increased to 8.3% from 7.9%[2] - The M2-M1 spread narrowed to 3.7%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] Group 2: Government Financing and Debt - Government bonds accounted for 32.3% of social financing in June, down from 63.8% in the previous month[3] - Net financing of government bonds in June was 1.3548 trillion yuan, an increase of 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - By June, the total government bond issuance for the year reached 7.66 trillion yuan, representing 65% of the annual issuance plan[3] Group 3: Corporate and Household Loans - Corporate loans in June saw a seasonal increase of 1.77 trillion yuan, up 140 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term loans rising by 1.16 trillion yuan[3] - Household loans increased by 3.353 trillion yuan for medium to long-term and 2.621 trillion yuan for short-term loans, reflecting a slight recovery in consumer confidence[3] - Overall, the performance of household credit remains moderate, indicating cautious economic expectations[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Trump's tariff pressure is escalating, leading to games among countries in negotiation, counter - measures, and buffering. Domestically, China's June economic data is better than expected, with exports and imports improving and the trade surplus expanding. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold is in shock, while silver has started a catch - up rally, and it is expected that the catch - up rally of silver will continue [4][5]. - Copper: The LME's visible inventory has increased, and Lun copper is under pressure at high levels. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has increased significantly, and Shanghai aluminum has reduced positions and adjusted. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. - Alumina: There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and alumina will maintain a shock [10]. - Zinc: With the macro and micro factors in a tug - of - war, zinc prices will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Lead: Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. - Tin: The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. - Industrial silicon: Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mine - end disturbances is limited, and lithium prices will oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event [17][18]. - Nickel: The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. - Crude oil: There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. - Steel products: The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices of steel products will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. - Iron ore: The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. - Palm oil: India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's tariff pressure is escalating. The EU warns of counter - tariffs on $720 billion of US products, Trump threatens Russia with 100% secondary tariffs, Brazil requests tariff reduction and postponement, and the US starts a 232 investigation on drone and polysilicon imports. The dollar index rose above 98, and the stock and commodity markets had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - Domestically: China's June exports and imports were better than expected, the trade surplus expanded, and the financial data marginally improved. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce on Monday. The current gold price is in shock [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce on Monday. Silver has started a catch - up rally, reaching a new high in nearly 14 years. It is expected that the catch - up rally will continue [4][5]. 3.3 Base Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract was weakly oscillating, and Lun copper oscillated around $9700. The LME inventory rose to 109,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415 yuan per ton, down 1.45%. The social inventory of aluminum increased significantly, and the market's long - position confidence declined. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3145 yuan per ton, down 0.6%. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected to maintain a shock [10]. Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and rose after a low opening at night. The overall zinc price will oscillate at a low level due to the tug - of - war between macro and micro factors [11]. Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract fluctuated greatly during the day and first declined then rose at night. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. 3.4 Industrial Products Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the futures price of lithium carbonate was running strongly, and the spot price rose slightly. The impact of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event is uncertain, and lithium prices will oscillate [17][18]. 3.5 Energy Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated weakly. There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. 3.6 Steel Products Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated. The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated. The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. 3.7 Agricultural Products Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract also rose. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27].

Core Insights - The financial data for June exceeded expectations, driven by three main factors: improved corporate liquidity due to debt resolution policies, strong foreign exchange settlement intentions under the expectation of currency appreciation, and a narrowing of household balance sheet contraction [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - The growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% in June, up from 8.7%, with new social financing amounting to 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan [1]. - New government debt reached 1.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, while new loans amounted to 2.36 trillion yuan, up 171 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - The balance of loans remained stable at a year-on-year growth rate of 7.1%, with foreign currency loans increasing by 32.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.3 billion yuan, marking the third-largest contribution to June's social financing [1]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Financial Data - **Factor 1: Debt Resolution Policies** Corporate liquidity has significantly improved under debt resolution policies, with a notable increase in government debt and stable government deposits, leading to a substantial rise in corporate deposits and short-term loans [6]. - **Factor 2: Currency Appreciation Expectations** Following a weakening of the US dollar, corporate willingness to settle in foreign currency has surged, contributing positively to corporate deposits amid expectations of renminbi appreciation [6]. - **Factor 3: Household Balance Sheet Adjustments** The contraction of household balance sheets has narrowed, with a noticeable decrease in early repayment rates for housing loans in June, although the elasticity of household loan growth remains to be observed [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the game of policy expectations, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Last week, Treasury bond yields showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although social financing data increased year-on-year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom-bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk aversion, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Despite the signal of financial opening released at the Lujiazui Forum, there were no more-than-expected easing measures, which cooled the market's expectation of the central bank's buying and selling of Treasury bonds, causing interest rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of easing policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra-long-term Treasury bond trading was active, but it was still restricted by the policy vacuum period [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.20% and a year-on-year change of -0.10%. China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.40% and a year-on-year change of -3.30% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%. M2 year-on-year was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.95, a decrease of 0.43 and a decline rate of 0.44%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1754, a decrease of 0.011 and a decline rate of 0.15%. SHIBOR 7 days was 1.63, an increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.82%. DR007 was 1.67, an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 10.67%. R007 was 1.64, a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%. The 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.61, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04% [8]. 2. Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts and the price changes of various Treasury bond futures varieties [9][12]. 3. Money Market Capital Situation - On June 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.629%, 1.697%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the inter - period spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - varieties [36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield [43]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract [51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the T main contract [62]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract [69]. Strategies - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging. The short - term fluctuation of the yield curve intensifies, and the trend still depends on the further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].