梁永慧认为，贵金属特别是黄金的长期多重上涨逻辑仍未改变。美联储降息周期方向相对明确，宽松的 货币政策将推动实际利率下行与美元走弱，继续降低贵金属持有成本，构成周期性支撑。同时，央行购 金与去美元化形成结构性托底，工业需求则赋予白银、铂金、钯金更高弹性。此外，市场资金与情绪正 逐步回暖，ETF持仓回流，也将成为贵金属上涨的重要支撑因素。 近期，贵金属市场再次成为投资者关注的焦点。2025年12月24日，黄金、白银同步创历史新高，国际现 货黄金首次突破4500美元/盎司，现货白银最高触及72.7美元/盎司，年内涨幅分别超过70%和逼近 150%。然而，就在市场情绪高涨之时，贵金属价格却突然迎来"急转弯"，12月29日现货白银剧烈回 调，单日跌幅达到9.08%，市场波动风险凸显。 市场人士普遍认为，市场情绪与资金轮动也是助推本轮涨势的重要因素。2025年全年贵金属多次创新 高，市场形成强烈看涨惯性，叠加国内铂钯期货上市吸引市场关注度提升，投机资金与趋势资金加速入 场，进一步放大了价格涨幅。此外，全球央行仍在延续自2022年以来的"购金热"，对金价形成长期托 底。世界黄金协会数据显示，各国央行2025年10月份净买入 ...

Core Insights - The precious metals market has gained significant attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in industry dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, 2025, international spot gold surpassed $4500 per ounce, while silver peaked at $72.7 per ounce, with annual increases of over 70% for gold and nearly 150% for silver [1]. - The overall trend for precious metals in 2025 was characterized by a volatile upward movement, influenced by heightened risk aversion and increased capital inflow into the sector [1][2]. Group 2: Catalysts for Price Movement - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve emerged as a primary catalyst, with the U.S. unemployment rate reaching a recent high in November 2025 and core CPI falling below market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for monetary easing [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflow into precious metals as a safe haven, further driving prices upward [2]. - Structural demand imbalances, particularly in industrial applications such as solar energy and AI servers, have significantly boosted silver consumption [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - Market sentiment and capital rotation have played crucial roles in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [3]. - Central banks continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% month-over-month increase, highlighting the strategic value of precious metals [3]. - Recent volatility in precious metals and industrial metal futures has prompted exchanges to raise margin requirements, indicating increased market risk [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term volatility in precious metal prices is expected to persist, influenced by profit-taking and potential underperformance of monetary policy easing [4]. - Long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks, which support the investment value of precious metals [4]. - The complex factors influencing gold prices include Federal Reserve policies and U.S. inflation, while silver's price is closely tied to gold but exhibits greater volatility due to its industrial applications [4].

回顾2025年贵金属市场，受避险情绪升温等因素拉动，市场资金进一步加速对贵金属的配置，贵金属价 格走势整体呈现震荡上涨。短期来看，贵金属因前期涨幅过大，需警惕投资者获利回吐、货币政策宽松 不及预期等带来的回调压力。但长期看来，随着全球货币宽松周期开启、各国央行持续购金与全球去美 元化进程深化，叠加地缘政治风险居高不下，贵金属仍具有较好的配置价值。 近期，贵金属市场再次成为投资者关注的焦点。12月24日，黄金、白银同步创历史新高，国际现货黄金 首次突破4500美元／盎司，现货白银最高触及72.7美元／盎司，年内涨幅分别超过70％和逼近150％， 大幅跑赢全球多数资产类别。此轮贵金属价格的大幅上涨，主要是受到多重宏观变量与产业格局变化的 共同驱动。 首先，美联储政策降息预期是重要催化剂。美国11月失业率升至近四年新高，核心CPI低于市场预期， 经济疲软信号强化了政策宽松预期，市场对2026年美联储多轮降息的押注持续升温，这推动美元走弱、 实际利率下行，降低了持有贵金属的机会成本。其次，全球地缘政治风险持续发酵，促使资金加速涌入 贵金属市场避险。此外，工业供需失衡引发结构性行情。受光伏装机扩张、AI服务器需求激增等 ...