投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开拓进取 日内观 ...

回顾2025年贵金属市场，受避险情绪升温等因素拉动，市场资金进一步加速对贵金属的配置，贵金属价 格走势整体呈现震荡上涨。短期来看，贵金属因前期涨幅过大，需警惕投资者获利回吐、货币政策宽松 不及预期等带来的回调压力。但长期看来，随着全球货币宽松周期开启、各国央行持续购金与全球去美 元化进程深化，叠加地缘政治风险居高不下，贵金属仍具有较好的配置价值。 近期，贵金属市场再次成为投资者关注的焦点。12月24日，黄金、白银同步创历史新高，国际现货黄金 首次突破4500美元／盎司，现货白银最高触及72.7美元／盎司，年内涨幅分别超过70％和逼近150％， 大幅跑赢全球多数资产类别。此轮贵金属价格的大幅上涨，主要是受到多重宏观变量与产业格局变化的 共同驱动。 首先，美联储政策降息预期是重要催化剂。美国11月失业率升至近四年新高，核心CPI低于市场预期， 经济疲软信号强化了政策宽松预期，市场对2026年美联储多轮降息的押注持续升温，这推动美元走弱、 实际利率下行，降低了持有贵金属的机会成本。其次，全球地缘政治风险持续发酵，促使资金加速涌入 贵金属市场避险。此外，工业供需失衡引发结构性行情。受光伏装机扩张、AI服务器需求激增等 ...

白银价格持续走强。2025 年 12 月，全球现货白银价格创下历史性纪录。 （1）从白银定价逻辑来看，白银具有工业和金融两大属性。从工业属 性来看，2025 年工业用银占比超 60%，鉴于白银本身具有的高导电特性， 白银成为科技革命与能源转型的"战略血液"，数据中心建设和逆变器 及充电设施等需求场景，使得白银具有类似铜的工业品属性。从金融属 性看，全球信用货币信任度因财政赤字扩大和地缘动荡下滑，使白银成 为黄金之外另一种避险资金的优选标的。（2）从短期触发因素来看， 纽约 COMEX 交易所 12 月初四天内 60%的注册库存（约 4760 万盎司）被 实物交割，注册库存较 2020 年峰值下降超 70%，白银实物挤兑是发生白 银飙涨的直接触发因素。（3）往后看，中长期来看，白银支撑逻辑未 改，供需缺口持续扩大，供应端伴生矿属性导致扩产刚性，主产国扰动 进一步限制增量；光伏、AI、新能源汽车等领域的工业需求增长，叠加 全球货币宽松周期延续，降低持有成本并强化避险配置需求，金银比仍 存修复空间。短期需警惕美联储宽松预期透支、"去银化"技术突破等 可能扰动行情。 多资产图景： 整体收益方面，本周（12 月 6 日 ...

12月22日，沪深两市小幅回暖，有色金属板块上涨1.54%，小金属板块上涨2.04%，黄金板块上涨 2.22%。截至11点05分，有色金属ETF(512400.SH)涨2.21%，紫金矿业涨4.15%。 总体看，有色金属板块 投资逻辑聚焦三大主线： 近期周贵金属价格表现强势，现货黄金、白银价格持续攀升并屡创新高；铂钯期货主力合约尤为亮眼， 日内涨幅超5%且多次触及涨停，品牌铂金零售价突破800元/克。核心驱动因素在于市场对美联储后续 降息的预期持续升温，叠加全球地缘政治不确定性引发避险情绪攀升，同时贵金属库存处于低位，有机 构预测或存在逼仓风险。政策面来看，主要经济体货币政策调整符合市场预期：日本央行加息25个基点 至0.75%，英国央行如期降息25个基点至3.75%，欧央行维持2%利率水平不变，进一步强化了全球货币 宽松周期开启的预期。当前市场聚焦美联储主席人选变动，预计相关结果将于1月份公布。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （二）工业金属：货币宽松+稳增长共振，铜紧铝弱格局初显 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> （三）新能源金属与小金属：碳酸锂高位震荡，稀土短期偏弱待复苏 碳酸锂 ...

早上好，先来看下重要消息。 年末最关键的一周来了 华泰证券预计，未来两周，国内将迎来政策超级周，重磅会议将召开。 国盛证券也称，历年中央经济工作会议多为12月上中旬召开，为来年的经济政策定调。 华泰证券预期，宏观政策有望聚焦三大主线：一是突出"开好局"，二是着力"扩内需"，三是科技"促创新"，并可能更加重视物价因素和GDP名义增速。 本周将迎来超级央行周，加拿大、澳大利亚、瑞士、巴西、秘鲁、菲律宾、南非、乌克兰、土耳其等国的央行及美联储将公布利率决议。 央行继续增持黄金 12月7日，国家外汇管理局更新了官方储备资产。统计数据显示，截至2025年11月末，黄金储备报7412万盎司（约2305.39吨），环比增加3万盎司（约0.93 吨），为连续第13个月增持黄金。 世界黄金协会表示，全球黄金ETF在11月底的总持仓量升至3932吨，连续第六个月增长。2025年新增买入超过700吨，有望创下黄金ETF历史上最大的年 度持仓增幅，而中国成为11月黄金ETF净流入的最大单一来源。 白银价格年内涨逾100%，大量资金流入白银ETF 近期，国内外白银价格再创历史新高，截至上周五收盘，伦敦银现货价格年内累计上涨101.74 ...

早上好，先来看下重要消息。 年末最关键的一周来了 华泰证券预计，未来两周，国内将迎来政策超级周，重磅会议将召开。 国盛证券也称，历年中央经济工作会议多为12月上中旬召开，为来年的经济政策定调。 世界黄金协会表示，全球黄金ETF在11月底的总持仓量升至3932吨，连续第六个月增长。2025年新增买入超过700吨，有望创下黄金ETF历史上最大的年 度持仓增幅，而中国成为11月黄金ETF净流入的最大单一来源。 白银价格年内涨逾100%，大量资金流入白银ETF 近期，国内外白银价格再创历史新高，截至上周五收盘，伦敦银现货价格年内累计上涨101.74%。 华泰证券预期，宏观政策有望聚焦三大主线：一是突出"开好局"，二是着力"扩内需"，三是科技"促创新"，并可能更加重视物价因素和GDP名义增速。 本周将迎来超级央行周，加拿大、澳大利亚、瑞士、巴西、秘鲁、菲律宾、南非、乌克兰、土耳其等国的央行及美联储将公布利率决议。 央行继续增持黄金 12月7日，国家外汇管理局更新了官方储备资产。统计数据显示，截至2025年11月末，黄金储备报7412万盎司（约2305.39吨），环比增加3万盎司（约0.93 吨），为连续第13个月增持黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise on November 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, driven by significant gains in the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt stocks [1]. Industry Summary - The President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Ge Honglin, stated that the country's recycled nonferrous metals industry is rapidly developing, with production expected to grow from 14.5 million tons at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 19.15 million tons by the end of 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 7.2%. It is anticipated that production will exceed 20 million tons by the end of 2025, addressing resource and environmental bottlenecks in the industry [1]. - According to Dongfang Securities, the nonferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance amid global monetary easing, enhanced resource strategic positioning, and the resonance of new and old industrial transformations. The sector's performance is expected to be relatively independent, with a focus on gold, lithium, rare metals, tungsten, and copper and aluminum [1].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a net inflow of over 14.6 billion yuan, ranking second among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [1] - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) experienced a peak increase of 4.12% during the morning session, currently up 4.01% and maintaining above all moving averages [1] - Key stocks such as Yahua Group, Guocheng Mining, Yongxing Materials, and Shengxin Lithium Energy hit the daily limit, while other stocks like Xingye Silver Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous also saw significant gains [1] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to end a historic government shutdown, which may restart economic data releases and enhance expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [2] - A Federal Reserve rate cut could boost non-ferrous metal prices through three main channels: currency depreciation leading to a preference for physical assets, a weaker dollar making metals cheaper globally, and lower borrowing costs stimulating demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - Orient Securities anticipates a new cycle for non-ferrous metals driven by global monetary easing, resource strategic positioning, and the transformation of old and new industries, with a focus on gold, lithium, rare earths, and tungsten [2] Group 3 - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide a diversified investment approach by passively tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which has weightings in copper (27.7%), aluminum (14.4%), gold (13.2%), rare earths (10.2%), and lithium (9.1%) [4] - This diversified approach helps mitigate risks compared to investing in a single metal sector, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, influenced by global monetary easing, strategic resource positioning, and the transformation of old and new industries, with a focus on gold, lithium/rare earths, and copper [1] - Gold is highlighted for its safe-haven properties and strategic resource status, performing well in a loose monetary environment [1] - The overall non-ferrous metals industry is showing structural opportunities in the new cycle, with an improved supply-demand pattern supporting price resilience [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Non-Ferrous Index by nearly 10% this year, indicating a more concentrated leadership with a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by a tight supply-demand balance, supported by global monetary easing, enhanced resource strategic positioning, and the resonance of old and new industrial transformations [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is characterized by a relatively independent performance due to structural supply-demand contradictions and the overlapping demands of old and new industries [1] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are gaining attention due to improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - In the small metals sector, strategic resources like lithium and rare earths are experiencing sustained demand growth in the context of the energy transition [1] - Gold maintains its allocation value as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2: ETF and Index Information - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects 60 listed companies involved in the entire non-ferrous metal industry chain from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The index has a high weight distribution in sub-sectors such as gold, rare earths, and lithium, while also maintaining good industry diversification [1] - The index comprehensively reflects the overall performance of listed companies in China's non-ferrous metals industry [1]