Core Insights - The precious metals market has gained significant attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in industry dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, 2025, international spot gold surpassed $4500 per ounce, while silver peaked at $72.7 per ounce, with annual increases of over 70% for gold and nearly 150% for silver [1]. - The overall trend for precious metals in 2025 was characterized by a volatile upward movement, influenced by heightened risk aversion and increased capital inflow into the sector [1][2]. Group 2: Catalysts for Price Movement - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve emerged as a primary catalyst, with the U.S. unemployment rate reaching a recent high in November 2025 and core CPI falling below market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for monetary easing [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflow into precious metals as a safe haven, further driving prices upward [2]. - Structural demand imbalances, particularly in industrial applications such as solar energy and AI servers, have significantly boosted silver consumption [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - Market sentiment and capital rotation have played crucial roles in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [3]. - Central banks continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% month-over-month increase, highlighting the strategic value of precious metals [3]. - Recent volatility in precious metals and industrial metal futures has prompted exchanges to raise margin requirements, indicating increased market risk [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term volatility in precious metal prices is expected to persist, influenced by profit-taking and potential underperformance of monetary policy easing [4]. - Long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks, which support the investment value of precious metals [4]. - The complex factors influencing gold prices include Federal Reserve policies and U.S. inflation, while silver's price is closely tied to gold but exhibits greater volatility due to its industrial applications [4].

Group 1 - Spot silver prices increased by 3.29%, reaching $74 per ounce [2] - Both spot platinum and palladium prices rose by over 2% [3] - Since 2025, precious metals like gold have seen significant capital interest, with New York gold futures rising over 64%, marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [5] Group 2 - Silver futures prices increased by over 141% in the same period, driven by speculative funds and strong industrial demand, while global silver supply has been in structural shortage for five consecutive years [5] - Platinum and palladium futures prices surged by over 124% and 81% respectively, influenced by a more than 9% decline in the US dollar index [5] - Domestic gold jewelry prices stabilized, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook reporting prices of 1360 CNY and 1357 CNY per gram respectively [5] Group 3 - Retail demand for gold has surged, with reports of limited availability for smaller gold bars and increased foot traffic in jewelry stores during the holiday season [14][15] - Young consumers are increasingly purchasing gold for both emotional value and as a means of preserving wealth, with a 20% increase in pre-orders for the New Year compared to the previous year [17] - HSBC forecasts gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce in 2026, while domestic silver prices have surged due to industrial demand and low inventory levels [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's CPI data is lower than expected, opening up room for interest rate cuts, which is likely to lead to strong performance in metal prices [1] - Precious metal prices are expected to remain high due to the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, combined with global geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand [1] - Domestic expectations for policy and infrastructure demand are boosted by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, with fiscal and monetary policies likely to maintain a dual easing approach, improving macro sentiment that supports basic metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 2 - The copper sector is benefiting from an increase in both the quantity and price of mined copper, with an improved supply-demand balance leading to significant price elasticity under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors [1] - The Mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities related to the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The Mining ETF (561330) has an excess return of over 10% compared to the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, featuring a more concentrated selection of leading companies, with a higher proportion of "gold + copper + rare earths" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price has reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical factors and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Performance - As of October 8, the spot gold price hit $4000.49 per ounce, marking a 0.14% increase, with a year-to-date rise exceeding 50% [1]. - COMEX gold futures also reached a new high of $4004.80 per ounce, reflecting a 0.71% increase [1]. - Gold prices have experienced five consecutive weeks of increases, catalyzed by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates on September 17 [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about gold's upward momentum, predicting a "difficult to decline" trend due to ongoing geopolitical risks and the Fed's easing policies [1][2]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the liquidity from the Fed's rate cuts will lead to continued inflows into global gold ETFs, with expectations for a gradual upward trend in gold prices [2]. - Goldman Sachs projects that central banks in emerging markets will continue diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings, forecasting an average purchase of 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, with a price prediction of $4900 per ounce by December 2026 [2].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is experiencing slight fluctuations, trading around 3404, after a previous drop of 0.34% to 3369.19 per ounce, following a peak of 3390 [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after a period of gains, particularly after weak U.S. employment data led to increased risk aversion [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have risen, influenced by geopolitical tensions from tariff measures by the Trump administration against countries like India and Switzerland [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - If gold maintains support at 3360, it may rebound towards resistance at 3385, with potential for further upward movement if it breaks this level [2] - The short-term strategy suggests avoiding aggressive trading and considering light positions near support levels [2] - The analysis indicates that if gold stabilizes above 3385, it could reach levels around 3390 to 3400, with strong resistance at 3416 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have rebounded slightly after five consecutive days of decline, with Brent crude rising 0.7% to $67.47 per barrel and WTI crude up 0.9% to $64.97 [5] - The market is concerned about potential increased U.S. sanctions on Russia, which has contributed to recent price drops, but upcoming high-level talks between U.S. and Russian leaders may provide some market relief [5] - The rebound in oil prices is supported by declining inventories and market speculation regarding negotiations, but long-term price direction will depend on OPEC+ production rates and geopolitical developments [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The recent trend in oil prices has shifted to a consolidation phase after three days of gains were reversed by three days of losses [6] - The MACD indicator suggests a lack of bullish momentum, indicating that oil prices may enter a new range of volatility [6] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on short positions during price rebounds, with resistance levels identified at 65.0-66.0 and support at 62.0-61.0 [6]

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings indicates that the scope of global geopolitical risk scenarios is expanding [1] Group 1 - The increasing complexity of geopolitical tensions is affecting global markets and investment strategies [1] - Companies are advised to reassess their risk management frameworks in light of these evolving geopolitical dynamics [1] - The potential for economic disruptions due to geopolitical events is becoming more pronounced, necessitating a proactive approach from businesses [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations. The US announced that the annual rate of April CPI was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021, and the core CPI of 2.8% was flat with the expected and previous values. After the data release, the market reaction was mild, and the impact of tariffs has not been reflected yet [1]. - Recent trade and geopolitical negotiations have reduced the market's bets on a US economic recession, causing the gold price to give back its previous risk premium. The international gold price is in an adjustment process, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at $3200 per ounce [1]. - The market generally expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September. Although the current inflation pressure is not high, inflation may rise again in the next few months as the tariff effect emerges. This expectation is prompting more investors to use gold as a tool to hedge against inflation [2]. - Gold faces three key variables: the follow - up progress of China - US trade negotiations, the Fed's monetary policy direction, and global geopolitical risks [2]. Summary by Related Aspects CPI Data - The US April CPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, and the core CPI was 2.8%, flat with the expected and previous values. The April CPI rose only 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% [1][2]. Market Expectations - The market generally expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September [2]. Gold Variables - Variables affecting gold include the follow - up progress of China - US trade negotiations, the Fed's monetary policy direction, and global geopolitical risks such as the evolution of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the India - Pakistan conflict [2]. Gold Price Movement - The international gold price is in an adjustment process, and attention should be paid to the support at $3200 per ounce [1].

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3255 per ounce, with a significant buying interest emerging after a dip to $3207.30 per ounce, indicating strong investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a slight easing of inflation pressures, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease from 2.4% to 2.3%, which is below expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, reaffirming the negative correlation between the dollar's performance and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The outlook for gold is influenced by three key variables: the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and global geopolitical risks, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and India-Pakistan tensions [4] - The easing of tariffs is viewed positively, suggesting that trade resumption with China may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its current course and gradually resume rate cuts later this year [4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials and the discussions at the NATO informal meeting regarding security priorities and defense investments [4]