Core Viewpoint - The gold price has reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical factors and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Performance - As of October 8, the spot gold price hit $4000.49 per ounce, marking a 0.14% increase, with a year-to-date rise exceeding 50% [1]. - COMEX gold futures also reached a new high of $4004.80 per ounce, reflecting a 0.71% increase [1]. - Gold prices have experienced five consecutive weeks of increases, catalyzed by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates on September 17 [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about gold's upward momentum, predicting a "difficult to decline" trend due to ongoing geopolitical risks and the Fed's easing policies [1][2]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the liquidity from the Fed's rate cuts will lead to continued inflows into global gold ETFs, with expectations for a gradual upward trend in gold prices [2]. - Goldman Sachs projects that central banks in emerging markets will continue diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings, forecasting an average purchase of 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, with a price prediction of $4900 per ounce by December 2026 [2].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is experiencing slight fluctuations, trading around 3404, after a previous drop of 0.34% to 3369.19 per ounce, following a peak of 3390 [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after a period of gains, particularly after weak U.S. employment data led to increased risk aversion [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have risen, influenced by geopolitical tensions from tariff measures by the Trump administration against countries like India and Switzerland [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - If gold maintains support at 3360, it may rebound towards resistance at 3385, with potential for further upward movement if it breaks this level [2] - The short-term strategy suggests avoiding aggressive trading and considering light positions near support levels [2] - The analysis indicates that if gold stabilizes above 3385, it could reach levels around 3390 to 3400, with strong resistance at 3416 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have rebounded slightly after five consecutive days of decline, with Brent crude rising 0.7% to $67.47 per barrel and WTI crude up 0.9% to $64.97 [5] - The market is concerned about potential increased U.S. sanctions on Russia, which has contributed to recent price drops, but upcoming high-level talks between U.S. and Russian leaders may provide some market relief [5] - The rebound in oil prices is supported by declining inventories and market speculation regarding negotiations, but long-term price direction will depend on OPEC+ production rates and geopolitical developments [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The recent trend in oil prices has shifted to a consolidation phase after three days of gains were reversed by three days of losses [6] - The MACD indicator suggests a lack of bullish momentum, indicating that oil prices may enter a new range of volatility [6] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on short positions during price rebounds, with resistance levels identified at 65.0-66.0 and support at 62.0-61.0 [6]

惠誉评级：全球地缘政治风险情景范围正在扩大。 ...

| 11/11/2 | ■技能采 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月14日 | | 贵金属 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属震荡。 美国公布4月0P1年率为2.3%低于预期的2.4%, 为2021年2月以来新低,核心CP12.8%持平于预期 和前值,数据发布后市场反应温和,关税影响尚未体现。近期贸易和地缘谈判降低市场对于美国经济衰退的 押注，情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢价。国际金价处于调整过程中，关注3200美元/盎司处支撑有效性。 美国劳工部周二公布的数据显示,4月CPI环比仅上涨0.2%,低于预期的0.3%。市场普遍预期美联储将在9月 恢复降息。值得注意的是,尽管当前通胀压力不大,但未来几个月随着关税效应的显现,通胀可能再度抬 头。这种预期正在促使更多投资者将黄金作为对冲通胀的工具。 黄金面临三 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3255 per ounce, with a significant buying interest emerging after a dip to $3207.30 per ounce, indicating strong investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a slight easing of inflation pressures, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease from 2.4% to 2.3%, which is below expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, reaffirming the negative correlation between the dollar's performance and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The outlook for gold is influenced by three key variables: the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and global geopolitical risks, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and India-Pakistan tensions [4] - The easing of tariffs is viewed positively, suggesting that trade resumption with China may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its current course and gradually resume rate cuts later this year [4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials and the discussions at the NATO informal meeting regarding security priorities and defense investments [4]