1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for industrial silicon may weaken significantly in Q1 2026 due to potential joint production cuts by silicone enterprises during the off - season and the inevitable production cuts in the polysilicon industry as "anti - involution" progresses. If the northwest silicon plants maintain their current operating rates, industrial silicon is likely to accumulate inventory in Q1 2026 [4][41]. - The short - term futures price of industrial silicon may rebound, with a support level for decline at around 8000 yuan/ton and a resistance level for rebound between 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. In Q1 2026, after the demand weakens and the factories accumulate large - scale inventory, the futures price may fall to near the cash cost line of northwest power - purchased silicon plants, with a low price reference of 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton [5][43]. - The recommended strategies are to potentially see a short - term rebound and short at high prices in the medium term for single - side trading, and to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage [6][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Supply - Demand Outlook - In December 2025, polysilicon and silicone have no plans to cut production. After the southwest silicon plants cut production at the beginning of the month, industrial silicon inventory accumulated but the amplitude was not significant. In Q1 2026, the off - season of silicone terminal demand may trigger joint production cuts by silicone enterprises, and production cuts in the polysilicon industry are inevitable as "anti - involution" advances, leading to a significant weakening of industrial silicon demand. On the supply side, silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan have little room to cut production, while northwest plants have low inventory and high operating rates. If they maintain the current rates, industrial silicon will likely accumulate inventory in Q1 2026 [4][41]. 3.1.2 Trading Logic - When the futures price is below 8500 yuan/ton, northwest silicon plants have little profit from warehouse delivery. Currently, with low inventory, their willingness to support prices is strong, and it may be difficult to repeat the negative feedback between futures and spot prices in May and June. The short - term support level for decline is 8000 yuan/ton, and the price may rebound to repair the basis, with a resistance level between 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. In Q1 2026, after the demand weakens and large - scale inventory accumulation occurs, negative feedback conditions will be met, and the futures price may fall to near the cash cost line of northwest power - purchased silicon plants, with a low price reference of 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton [5][43]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side trading: There may be a short - term rebound, and short at high prices in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [6][44]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Analysis of the Driving Factors of the Recent Sharp Decline - The sharp and rapid decline of industrial silicon futures in recent days is due to both fundamental factors and market sentiment. Key reasons include the decline in industrial silicon exports since October, inventory accumulation during the dry season after the near - full operation of the leading manufacturer's Shanshan capacity, concerns about cost collapse due to the sharp decline of coking coal futures, and the negative impact on industrial silicon demand from the inevitable large - scale production cuts in the polysilicon industry as "anti - involution" progresses [9]. 3.2.2 December Demand is Acceptable, but Q1 2026 Demand is Expected to be Poor - **Silicone (DMC)**: Since 2022, the traditional construction industry has been sluggish, and the photovoltaic industry has also declined since 2025, reducing the demand for silicone. The silicone monomer industry has been in surplus since new capacities were put into operation in H2 2024, and DMC prices have been falling. After the call for joint production cuts in February 2025, the production of silicone monomers has gradually decreased, and factory inventories have been reduced. In December 2025, the DMC operating rate is expected to be flat compared to November, but in Q1 2026, the off - season of terminal consumption may trigger joint production cuts and reduce the demand for industrial silicon [16][17]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand for polysilicon is likely to weaken in Q1 2026 and may improve after March. If polysilicon enterprises maintain their December production schedule, the industry will accumulate 90,000 tons of inventory in three months, with a cash occupation of nearly 4 billion yuan. Given the continuous losses and high inventory, some enterprises need to cut production, and Q1 2026 is the most suitable time [25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In Q1 2026, the demand for aluminum alloy may weaken marginally, and seasonal production cuts by aluminum alloy enterprises may lead to a slight decline in the operating rate. The export of industrial silicon may gradually recover in Q1 2026, and the December export volume may be between that of September and October [28]. 3.2.3 Production Cuts by Northwest Silicon Plants in Q1 2026 Due to Losses are Needed to Restore Supply - Demand Balance - As of December 4, 2025, the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased, and they have little room to further reduce the operating rate in Q1 2026. The monthly production of industrial silicon in the four northwest provinces has reached 354,000 tons. If production is not cut, the oversupply situation will continue. The full cost of northwest power - purchased silicon plants is 8300 - 8600 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang power - purchased silicon plants need a futures price above 8500 yuan/ton to break even [35]. 3.2.4 The Current Inventory Structure Does Not Support a Deep Decline in the Futures Price, and Further Inventory Accumulation is Needed - The current visible inventory of industrial silicon is 970,000 tons, including 558,000 tons of social inventory, 185,100 tons of inventory in sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan, and 230,800 tons of downstream raw material inventory. Southwest silicon plants will not sell below cost after shutting down, and only a few northwest manufacturers have inventory pressure. With high intermediate inventory and concentrated ownership, the basis is difficult to weaken. It is difficult to repeat the negative cycle between futures and spot prices in May and June. Only after further inventory accumulation, when futures price decline squeezes the sales space of manufacturers and forces them to cut prices, can the negative cycle occur [38][39]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: In December 2025, polysilicon and silicone have no production - cut plans. After production cuts by southwest silicon plants at the beginning of the month, industrial silicon inventory has accumulated but the amplitude is not significant. In Q1 2026, the demand for industrial silicon may weaken significantly due to potential production cuts in the silicone and polysilicon industries. If the northwest silicon plants maintain their current operating rates, industrial silicon is likely to accumulate inventory [41][43]. - **Trading Logic**: When the futures price is below 8500 yuan/ton, northwest silicon plants have little delivery profit. Currently, with low inventory, they are strongly willing to support prices, and it is difficult to repeat the negative feedback between futures and spot prices in May and June. The short - term support level for decline is 8000 yuan/ton, and the price may rebound to repair the basis, with a resistance level between 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. In Q1 2026, after the demand weakens and large - scale inventory accumulation occurs, the futures price may fall to near the cash cost line of northwest power - purchased silicon plants, with a low price reference of 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton [5][43]. - **Operation Strategy**: Single - side trading: Short - term rebound is possible, and short at high prices in the medium term. Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [6][44].