| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【供需展望】 | | 2 | | 【交易逻辑】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、本轮大跌驱动分析 | | 3 | | 二、12 | 月工业硅需求尚可，2026 年一季度需求预期较差 | 4 | | 三、2026 | 年一季度西北硅厂因亏损而减产才能推动工业硅供需再平衡 8 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | 免责声明 | | 11 | 有色板块研发报告 工业硅专题报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 工业硅快速下跌，后市逻辑推演 第一部分 前言概要 【供需展望】 12 月多晶硅、有机硅暂无减产计划，西南硅厂月初减产后工业硅虽 累库但幅度不明显。2026 年一季度有机硅终端需求淡季可能触发有机硅 企业联合减产，多晶硅行业"反内卷"推进必然伴随减产，我们认为一 季度工业硅需求可能显著走弱。供应方面，云南、四川硅厂基本无减产 空间，西北四省厂家库存较低，开工率较高，倘若保持现有开工率，2026 年一季度工业硅大概率累库。 【交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but compared with the industry inventory of over 1 million tons, the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After the previous hedging, short - term price decline is difficult to cause production cuts, but the price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to bring obvious supply increments in the dry season or the next wet season. With the cost floor identified, the lower limit of the industrial silicon price may be clearer. In Q4, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips at the lower end of the range [78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 25Q3 Market Review - In 25H1, the price of industrial silicon dropped significantly due to inventory accumulation during the dry season, resumption of production by large manufacturers, and cost collapse driven by falling coal prices. In 25Q3, the price rebounded sharply due to the continuous strengthening of the basis, outflow of warehouse receipts, lower - than - expected resumption of production by large manufacturers, and the "anti - involution" trading. After the "anti - involution" trading declined, the price fluctuated between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton [3]. Cost Analysis - **Electricity Price**: The cost floor in terms of electricity price has emerged. In Xinjiang, self - supplied electricity is about 0.2 yuan/kWh, and subsidized purchased electricity is about 0.3 yuan/kWh, with 0.35 yuan/kWh in Yili. In Yunnan, the electricity price rises slightly in the normal - water period in October and increases by 0.15 - 0.2 yuan/kWh in the dry season from November to December. In Sichuan, the electricity price rises by 0.05 - 0.1 yuan/kWh in the normal - water period in November and by 0.16 - 0.21 yuan/kWh in the dry season in December compared with the wet season [8][10]. - **Raw Materials**: The cost floor for raw materials has also emerged. The cash cost of self - supplied electricity in Xinjiang is 6,800 yuan/ton, and that of purchased electricity is 7,800 yuan/ton. The cash cost in the wet season in Sichuan is 8,500 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan, it is 9,900 yuan/ton. In the dry season, the cash cost in Baoshan is 11,500 yuan/ton, and in other south - western regions, it is 12,500 yuan/ton [22][23][30]. Supply Analysis - **Seasonal Production Cuts**: In the dry season, the supply elasticity is weakened by hedging. Xinjiang's large manufacturers plan to increase the number of furnaces in the eastern base to 50, and may further increase to 60. Yunnan and Sichuan will start production cuts at the end of October, with Yunnan's operation possibly dropping to more than 20 furnaces and Sichuan's to about 35 furnaces. Inner Mongolia's polysilicon integrated and self - supplied electricity - advantaged capacities are operating at full capacity. In Gansu, the operation is expected to change little [31]. - **Potential Supply Pressure**: There are many built - but - not - yet - commissioned capacities, posing a large potential supply pressure. Newly commissioned capacities include Tongwei Baotou, Tongwei Guangyuan, Xin'an Yanjin, and Yongchang Silicon Industry. Built but postponed commissioning includes Qiya Silicon Industry, Qinghai Hongshi, Hesheng Zhaotong, Trina Solar, and Shangnan Zhongjian [37][38]. Demand Analysis - **Polysilicon**: After the "anti - involution" trading, the mainstream transaction price of dense materials from first - tier enterprises rose to 50 - 52 yuan/kg, with a net profit margin of over 10%. The upstream factory inventory is 20 - 21 million tons, mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. The downstream raw material inventory is over 2 months. From January to September 2025, the polysilicon output was 951,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33%. Considering the dry - season production cuts and the resumption expectations of some enterprises, the polysilicon production schedule for Q4 2025 is expected to be 376,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [50]. - **Organic Silicon**: The real estate market remains weak. In terms of photovoltaic, from January to September, the domestic component output of Chinese enterprises was 412.3GW, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Considering the weakening demand, the production schedule for Q4 2025 is expected to be 136GW, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. For new - energy vehicles, from January to August, the sales volume was 9.592 million, a year - on - year increase of 36%. Due to the high base in Q4 last year, the annual growth rate is adjusted down to 24%, with a year - on - year increase of 9.5% in Q4. In terms of exports, from January to August, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxane was 373,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. However, the US tariff adjustment is expected to reduce exports to the US. From January to August, the output of organic silicon intermediates was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The production of organic silicon DMC in Q4 2025 is expected to be 677,000 tons, the same as the previous year [51][62][68]. - **Aluminum Alloys and Exports**: From January to August, the output of primary aluminum alloys was 941,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%, and the output of recycled aluminum alloys was 4.056 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Q4 is the seasonal peak season for aluminum alloys. Aluminum plants mainly purchase industrial silicon as a rigid demand, buying on dips and consuming inventory at other times. The demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloys in Q4 2025 is expected to be 230,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to August, the export of industrial silicon was 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30% [69]. Supply - Demand Balance and Price Outlook - **Supply - Demand Balance**: On the supply side, with Xinjiang's large manufacturers' eastern base operating 50 furnaces, the operating rate in the southwest drops significantly in the dry season. On the demand side, polysilicon production is affected by dry - season cuts and some enterprises' resumption, organic silicon production remains the same year - on - year, and aluminum alloy demand increases slightly year - on - year. Inventory accumulates in October, and about 50,000 tons are depleted from November to December in the dry season. However, if Xinjiang's large manufacturers fully resume production, it may be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a small amount will be depleted in December [73]. - **Price Outlook**: The lower limit of the industrial silicon price may be clearer with the cost floor identified. The main contract in Q4 is expected to trade in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [78].

Report Information - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance. The supply has increased significantly, while the demand has no obvious growth. The market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and attention should be paid to the support level at 8200 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8470 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. The trading volume was 345,613 lots, and the open interest was 281,480 lots, with a net decrease of 3,969 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The industrial silicon spot price started low and ended high, fluctuating. The Sichuan 553 price was 8900 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 was 8550 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9150 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 9600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The supply increase is obvious, with the weekly output reaching 90,000 tons, equivalent to about 390,000 tons per month. The demand has no obvious increase. The polysilicon production in September was reduced from 145,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons. The total volume of organic silicon, alloys, and exports remained stable. The industry is in a supply - demand imbalance, and there is no inventory reduction drive. Policy implementation does not focus on the industrial silicon industry, and the weak fundamental drive has led to a recent decline in high - priced silicon, with the market fluctuating widely [4]. 3.2 Market News - On September 3, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,029 lots, a net decrease of 371 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, China's metallic silicon exports were 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total metallic silicon exports were 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1109.6GW, and the newly added installed capacity was 223.25GW. In July, the newly added installed capacity was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industrial silicon industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for industrial silicon is bullish. The market sentiment is strong due to factors such as the reduction in production scale of leading large - scale manufacturers, the small - scale production capacity in the southwest region, the upcoming release of the steady - growth work plan for key industries, and the low inventory of industrial silicon factories. The price is expected to strengthen further, with a pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 47,800 tons, a 1.92% increase; the weekly output of polysilicon was 23,400 tons, a 0.21% increase; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,300 tons, a 1.5% increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan and Sichuan, decreased in Xinjiang, and increased in Inner Mongolia. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 547,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang was 123,600 tons, a 0.24% decrease [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Leading large - scale manufacturers have expanded their production cuts. The restarted production capacity in the southwest consists of small - sized furnaces. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in July will decrease by 20,000 - 30,000 tons compared to June. There is a supply - demand gap before the leading large - scale manufacturers resume production. The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong in the short term, and the price is expected to strengthen further [3]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a bullish approach in the short term. For options, buy protective put options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell. Southwest manufacturers carried out large - scale hedging around 9,000 yuan. As of Friday, the main futures contract closed at 8,695 yuan/ton. The spot price of industrial silicon increased significantly, generally rising by 300 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Downstream Demand**: The output of DMC increased, the output of polysilicon slightly increased, and the operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable. It is expected that the output of organic silicon in July will be flat compared to June, and the output of polysilicon will increase [9][13]. - **Industrial Silicon Output**: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased by 1.5% this week. The number of open furnaces changed in different regions. Overall, the output in July is expected to decrease compared to June before the large - scale manufacturers in the northwest resume production [23]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The factory inventory and social inventory decreased slightly. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.73%, and the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang decreased by 0.24%. However, the inventory of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased by 0.37%, and that in Sichuan decreased by 3.7% [24]. - **Related Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased this week. The prices of DMC and its terminal products also strengthened [30][34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon - Related Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [30]. - **Organic Silicon - Related Product Prices**: The prices of DMC and its terminal products strengthened this week [34]. - **Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data**: The operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable [43]. - **Industrial Silicon Raw Material Prices**: The spot price of refined coal in Xinjiang stopped falling [45]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the polysilicon industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for polysilicon is bullish. The price is expected to be strong next week. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of (40,000, 47,000) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the situation of manufacturers selling for delivery [51]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: There are many rumors in the polysilicon market, and the main trading logic is "anti - involution" and selling at no less than cost. The increase in polysilicon price can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of (40,000, 47,000) yuan/ton. The price is expected to be strong next week, and attention should be paid to the situation of manufacturers selling for delivery [51]. - **Operation Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish in the short term and participate with a light position. For options, buy call options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [52]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Price**: This week, the spot quotes of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable. N - type granular silicon decreased slightly. The market generally agrees on selling at no less than cost, but there are no direct high - price orders, mainly a combination of old and new orders [53][65]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. Silicon wafer enterprises started to quote based on full cost, and the battery price has not been adjusted according to the benchmark cost price determined in the self - discipline meeting. Attention should be paid to the actual transaction situation next week [66][71]. - **Component Price**: The prices of components in centralized and distributed projects are expected to increase. Many manufacturers plan to raise component quotes due to the increase in the prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and batteries [80]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: In July, the orders of photovoltaic component enterprises did not improve. It is expected that the production schedule of photovoltaic components in July will be reduced to 45GW [81]. - **Battery Fundamental Data**: The inventory of professional battery manufacturers increased to 15.96GW, and the production schedule of photovoltaic battery enterprises was reduced to 54GW in July [87]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: This week, the silicon wafer inventory decreased to 16.02GW, the output was 13.04GW, and the production schedule in July is about 52.2GW [91]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: This week, the polysilicon output increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased to 276,800 tons. The output in July is variable due to the复产 and postponed复产 of some production capacities [94].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Industrial silicon [4] Group 2: Market Performance - Futures price: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,425 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The trading volume was 451,986 lots, and the open interest was 317,763 lots, with a net decrease of 1,130 lots [4] - Spot price: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price range of 553 was 8,100 - 8,300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Supply: Industrial silicon production has not reached the quantity required for supply - demand balance. The resumption of production during the wet season is continuing to increase the supply [4] - Demand: There is no change in the demand side. Domestic demand remains at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remain at around 50,000 tons. If polysilicon increases the production cut, it will further negatively affect industrial silicon [4] - Inventory: The futures and spot inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, and there is no inventory - reduction driver in the short term [4] - Market trend: Although the supply - demand situation has not improved, the commodity index has continued to rebound recently. The spot price of industrial silicon is supported by the cash cost and remains stable. In the short term, the long and short sides have initially reached a weak balance, and the price will move within a narrow range. The resistance increases when the price rebounds above 7,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Market News - Futures warehouse receipts: On June 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 55,620 lots, a net decrease of 448 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Policy news: The CSRC will allow qualified overseas investors to participate in on - site ETF option trading from October 9, 2025, and the trading purpose is limited to hedging [5] - Export data: According to customs statistics, in April 2025, industrial silicon exports were 60,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.19%. The overall overseas market is relatively stable, and the change in export volume is small [5]