孙伟东 首席分析师(有色金属) 从业资格号：F3035243 投资咨询号：Z0014605 联系人：肖嘉颖 从业资格号：F03130556 东证衍生品研究院 蛰伏之季 静候春雷 ——2025Q4工业硅季度观点 成本底已现：电价 2025.09 25Q3行情回顾：反内卷冲高回落 25H1：交易枯水期累库+大厂复产+煤价下跌带动成本坍塌，工业硅价格大幅下跌。 25Q3：基差持续走强+仓单流出+大厂复产不及预期+"反内卷"交易，工业硅价格大幅反弹。 "反内卷"交易阶段性衰退后，工业硅价格在8200-9200元/吨之间震荡。 图：工业硅期货价格复盘 图：工业硅主力基差走势 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 2025-01 2025-01 2025-01 2025-02 2025-02 2025-03 2025-03 2025-04 2025-04 2025-05 2025-05 2025-06 2025-06 2025-07 2025-07 2025-07 2025-08 2025-08 2025-09 2025-09 元/吨 期货收盘价（活跃） 春节前需求 真 ...

Report Information - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance. The supply has increased significantly, while the demand has no obvious growth. The market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and attention should be paid to the support level at 8200 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8470 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. The trading volume was 345,613 lots, and the open interest was 281,480 lots, with a net decrease of 3,969 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The industrial silicon spot price started low and ended high, fluctuating. The Sichuan 553 price was 8900 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 was 8550 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9150 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 9600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The supply increase is obvious, with the weekly output reaching 90,000 tons, equivalent to about 390,000 tons per month. The demand has no obvious increase. The polysilicon production in September was reduced from 145,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons. The total volume of organic silicon, alloys, and exports remained stable. The industry is in a supply - demand imbalance, and there is no inventory reduction drive. Policy implementation does not focus on the industrial silicon industry, and the weak fundamental drive has led to a recent decline in high - priced silicon, with the market fluctuating widely [4]. 3.2 Market News - On September 3, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,029 lots, a net decrease of 371 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, China's metallic silicon exports were 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total metallic silicon exports were 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1109.6GW, and the newly added installed capacity was 223.25GW. In July, the newly added installed capacity was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industrial silicon industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for industrial silicon is bullish. The market sentiment is strong due to factors such as the reduction in production scale of leading large - scale manufacturers, the small - scale production capacity in the southwest region, the upcoming release of the steady - growth work plan for key industries, and the low inventory of industrial silicon factories. The price is expected to strengthen further, with a pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 47,800 tons, a 1.92% increase; the weekly output of polysilicon was 23,400 tons, a 0.21% increase; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,300 tons, a 1.5% increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan and Sichuan, decreased in Xinjiang, and increased in Inner Mongolia. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 547,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang was 123,600 tons, a 0.24% decrease [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Leading large - scale manufacturers have expanded their production cuts. The restarted production capacity in the southwest consists of small - sized furnaces. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in July will decrease by 20,000 - 30,000 tons compared to June. There is a supply - demand gap before the leading large - scale manufacturers resume production. The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong in the short term, and the price is expected to strengthen further [3]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a bullish approach in the short term. For options, buy protective put options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell. Southwest manufacturers carried out large - scale hedging around 9,000 yuan. As of Friday, the main futures contract closed at 8,695 yuan/ton. The spot price of industrial silicon increased significantly, generally rising by 300 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Downstream Demand**: The output of DMC increased, the output of polysilicon slightly increased, and the operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable. It is expected that the output of organic silicon in July will be flat compared to June, and the output of polysilicon will increase [9][13]. - **Industrial Silicon Output**: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased by 1.5% this week. The number of open furnaces changed in different regions. Overall, the output in July is expected to decrease compared to June before the large - scale manufacturers in the northwest resume production [23]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The factory inventory and social inventory decreased slightly. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.73%, and the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang decreased by 0.24%. However, the inventory of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased by 0.37%, and that in Sichuan decreased by 3.7% [24]. - **Related Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased this week. The prices of DMC and its terminal products also strengthened [30][34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon - Related Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [30]. - **Organic Silicon - Related Product Prices**: The prices of DMC and its terminal products strengthened this week [34]. - **Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data**: The operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable [43]. - **Industrial Silicon Raw Material Prices**: The spot price of refined coal in Xinjiang stopped falling [45]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the polysilicon industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for polysilicon is bullish. The price is expected to be strong next week. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of (40,000, 47,000) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the situation of manufacturers selling for delivery [51]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: There are many rumors in the polysilicon market, and the main trading logic is "anti - involution" and selling at no less than cost. The increase in polysilicon price can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of (40,000, 47,000) yuan/ton. The price is expected to be strong next week, and attention should be paid to the situation of manufacturers selling for delivery [51]. - **Operation Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish in the short term and participate with a light position. For options, buy call options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [52]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Price**: This week, the spot quotes of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable. N - type granular silicon decreased slightly. The market generally agrees on selling at no less than cost, but there are no direct high - price orders, mainly a combination of old and new orders [53][65]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. Silicon wafer enterprises started to quote based on full cost, and the battery price has not been adjusted according to the benchmark cost price determined in the self - discipline meeting. Attention should be paid to the actual transaction situation next week [66][71]. - **Component Price**: The prices of components in centralized and distributed projects are expected to increase. Many manufacturers plan to raise component quotes due to the increase in the prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and batteries [80]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: In July, the orders of photovoltaic component enterprises did not improve. It is expected that the production schedule of photovoltaic components in July will be reduced to 45GW [81]. - **Battery Fundamental Data**: The inventory of professional battery manufacturers increased to 15.96GW, and the production schedule of photovoltaic battery enterprises was reduced to 54GW in July [87]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: This week, the silicon wafer inventory decreased to 16.02GW, the output was 13.04GW, and the production schedule in July is about 52.2GW [91]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: This week, the polysilicon output increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased to 276,800 tons. The output in July is variable due to the复产 and postponed复产 of some production capacities [94].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Industrial silicon [4] Group 2: Market Performance - Futures price: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,425 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The trading volume was 451,986 lots, and the open interest was 317,763 lots, with a net decrease of 1,130 lots [4] - Spot price: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price range of 553 was 8,100 - 8,300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Supply: Industrial silicon production has not reached the quantity required for supply - demand balance. The resumption of production during the wet season is continuing to increase the supply [4] - Demand: There is no change in the demand side. Domestic demand remains at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remain at around 50,000 tons. If polysilicon increases the production cut, it will further negatively affect industrial silicon [4] - Inventory: The futures and spot inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, and there is no inventory - reduction driver in the short term [4] - Market trend: Although the supply - demand situation has not improved, the commodity index has continued to rebound recently. The spot price of industrial silicon is supported by the cash cost and remains stable. In the short term, the long and short sides have initially reached a weak balance, and the price will move within a narrow range. The resistance increases when the price rebounds above 7,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Market News - Futures warehouse receipts: On June 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 55,620 lots, a net decrease of 448 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Policy news: The CSRC will allow qualified overseas investors to participate in on - site ETF option trading from October 9, 2025, and the trading purpose is limited to hedging [5] - Export data: According to customs statistics, in April 2025, industrial silicon exports were 60,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.19%. The overall overseas market is relatively stable, and the change in export volume is small [5]