1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for industrial silicon may weaken significantly in Q1 2026 due to potential joint production cuts by silicone enterprises during the off - season and the inevitable production cuts in the polysilicon industry as "anti - involution" progresses. If the northwest silicon plants maintain their current operating rates, industrial silicon is likely to accumulate inventory in Q1 2026 [4][41]. - The short - term futures price of industrial silicon may rebound, with a support level for decline at around 8000 yuan/ton and a resistance level for rebound between 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. In Q1 2026, after the demand weakens and the factories accumulate large - scale inventory, the futures price may fall to near the cash cost line of northwest power - purchased silicon plants, with a low price reference of 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton [5][43]. - The recommended strategies are to potentially see a short - term rebound and short at high prices in the medium term for single - side trading, and to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage [6][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Supply - Demand Outlook - In December 2025, polysilicon and silicone have no plans to cut production. After the southwest silicon plants cut production at the beginning of the month, industrial silicon inventory accumulated but the amplitude was not significant. In Q1 2026, the off - season of silicone terminal demand may trigger joint production cuts by silicone enterprises, and production cuts in the polysilicon industry are inevitable as "anti - involution" advances, leading to a significant weakening of industrial silicon demand. On the supply side, silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan have little room to cut production, while northwest plants have low inventory and high operating rates. If they maintain the current rates, industrial silicon will likely accumulate inventory in Q1 2026 [4][41]. 3.1.2 Trading Logic - When the futures price is below 8500 yuan/ton, northwest silicon plants have little profit from warehouse delivery. Currently, with low inventory, their willingness to support prices is strong, and it may be difficult to repeat the negative feedback between futures and spot prices in May and June. The short - term support level for decline is 8000 yuan/ton, and the price may rebound to repair the basis, with a resistance level between 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. In Q1 2026, after the demand weakens and large - scale inventory accumulation occurs, negative feedback conditions will be met, and the futures price may fall to near the cash cost line of northwest power - purchased silicon plants, with a low price reference of 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton [5][43]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side trading: There may be a short - term rebound, and short at high prices in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [6][44]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Analysis of the Driving Factors of the Recent Sharp Decline - The sharp and rapid decline of industrial silicon futures in recent days is due to both fundamental factors and market sentiment. Key reasons include the decline in industrial silicon exports since October, inventory accumulation during the dry season after the near - full operation of the leading manufacturer's Shanshan capacity, concerns about cost collapse due to the sharp decline of coking coal futures, and the negative impact on industrial silicon demand from the inevitable large - scale production cuts in the polysilicon industry as "anti - involution" progresses [9]. 3.2.2 December Demand is Acceptable, but Q1 2026 Demand is Expected to be Poor - **Silicone (DMC)**: Since 2022, the traditional construction industry has been sluggish, and the photovoltaic industry has also declined since 2025, reducing the demand for silicone. The silicone monomer industry has been in surplus since new capacities were put into operation in H2 2024, and DMC prices have been falling. After the call for joint production cuts in February 2025, the production of silicone monomers has gradually decreased, and factory inventories have been reduced. In December 2025, the DMC operating rate is expected to be flat compared to November, but in Q1 2026, the off - season of terminal consumption may trigger joint production cuts and reduce the demand for industrial silicon [16][17]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand for polysilicon is likely to weaken in Q1 2026 and may improve after March. If polysilicon enterprises maintain their December production schedule, the industry will accumulate 90,000 tons of inventory in three months, with a cash occupation of nearly 4 billion yuan. Given the continuous losses and high inventory, some enterprises need to cut production, and Q1 2026 is the most suitable time [25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In Q1 2026, the demand for aluminum alloy may weaken marginally, and seasonal production cuts by aluminum alloy enterprises may lead to a slight decline in the operating rate. The export of industrial silicon may gradually recover in Q1 2026, and the December export volume may be between that of September and October [28]. 3.2.3 Production Cuts by Northwest Silicon Plants in Q1 2026 Due to Losses are Needed to Restore Supply - Demand Balance - As of December 4, 2025, the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased, and they have little room to further reduce the operating rate in Q1 2026. The monthly production of industrial silicon in the four northwest provinces has reached 354,000 tons. If production is not cut, the oversupply situation will continue. The full cost of northwest power - purchased silicon plants is 8300 - 8600 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang power - purchased silicon plants need a futures price above 8500 yuan/ton to break even [35]. 3.2.4 The Current Inventory Structure Does Not Support a Deep Decline in the Futures Price, and Further Inventory Accumulation is Needed - The current visible inventory of industrial silicon is 970,000 tons, including 558,000 tons of social inventory, 185,100 tons of inventory in sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan, and 230,800 tons of downstream raw material inventory. Southwest silicon plants will not sell below cost after shutting down, and only a few northwest manufacturers have inventory pressure. With high intermediate inventory and concentrated ownership, the basis is difficult to weaken. It is difficult to repeat the negative cycle between futures and spot prices in May and June. Only after further inventory accumulation, when futures price decline squeezes the sales space of manufacturers and forces them to cut prices, can the negative cycle occur [38][39]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: In December 2025, polysilicon and silicone have no production - cut plans. After production cuts by southwest silicon plants at the beginning of the month, industrial silicon inventory has accumulated but the amplitude is not significant. In Q1 2026, the demand for industrial silicon may weaken significantly due to potential production cuts in the silicone and polysilicon industries. If the northwest silicon plants maintain their current operating rates, industrial silicon is likely to accumulate inventory [41][43]. - **Trading Logic**: When the futures price is below 8500 yuan/ton, northwest silicon plants have little delivery profit. Currently, with low inventory, they are strongly willing to support prices, and it is difficult to repeat the negative feedback between futures and spot prices in May and June. The short - term support level for decline is 8000 yuan/ton, and the price may rebound to repair the basis, with a resistance level between 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. In Q1 2026, after the demand weakens and large - scale inventory accumulation occurs, the futures price may fall to near the cash cost line of northwest power - purchased silicon plants, with a low price reference of 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton [5][43]. - **Operation Strategy**: Single - side trading: Short - term rebound is possible, and short at high prices in the medium term. Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [6][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views Carbonate Lithium - The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium on Friday was 72,398 yuan/ton, down 406 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation, and downstream material factories were actively placing orders and making deals. It's the peak demand season, and with the approaching National Day stock - building period, downstream procurement willingness is strong at relatively low prices [3]. - This week, the output of carbonate lithium was 19,963 tons, close to a record high. All lithium extraction processes saw output increases. The total sample inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1580 tons, with inventory transfer from lithium salt enterprises to downstream. The apparent weekly demand reached a record high of 21,543 tons, and the available inventory days dropped to 45 days [4]. - Currently, the supply and demand of lithium salts are both strong. The short - term inventory reduction trend may accelerate. Downstream enterprises are advised to seize the opportunity for futures buy - hedging according to their risk management needs. The support for the main contract is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan [5]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon has been increasing, and the operating rate has continued to rise. Last week, the weekly output of metallic silicon was about 93,000 tons, up 2920 tons. The demand from polysilicon enterprises has increased after profit improvement, while that from the organic silicon and aluminum alloy sectors is relatively weak, and the export demand is good. In the short term, the fundamental contradiction is limited under the dual increase of supply and demand, and the inventory remains at a high level. The price game continues due to strong downstream price - pressing sentiment [6]. - Given the strong expectations and weak reality, an interval trading approach is recommended. Consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips. The support for the main contract is 8200 - 8300 yuan, and the resistance is 8900 - 9000 yuan [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market is dominated by policy expectations and relevant news, with rapid trend changes and increased volatility. The supply is at a high level and still increasing. The spot price has been raised with policy expectations, but the downstream acceptance is low, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The upstream price increase and downstream price - pressing put pressure on the photovoltaic module sector. The upward price space in the future is expected to be limited. After the callback, consider going long on dips, or more preferably, sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips [7]. - The anti - low - price policy provides strong bottom support. After the callback, consider going long on dips with a light position, as the market is volatile. The support for the main contract is 51,000 - 52,000 yuan, and the resistance is 56,000 - 57,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part One: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium 11**: Driven by news, it will run in a wide - range oscillation. Upstream producers should seize the opportunity for sell - hedging at high prices, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on stocking up at low prices or buy - hedging. The support is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. - **Industrial Silicon 11**: Facing the confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations, it will oscillate in an interval. Adopt an interval trading approach and preferably sell slightly out - of - the money put options on dips. The support is 8200 - 8300 yuan, and the resistance is 8900 - 9000 yuan [13]. - **Polysilicon 11**: Dominated by news, with a significant short - term speculative sentiment increase, it will oscillate at a high level. After the callback, consider going long on dips with a light position. The support is 51,000 - 52,000 yuan, and the resistance is 56,000 - 57,000 yuan [13]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 71,160 yuan | 0.23% | 410,989 | 309,402 | - 14,054 | 38,625 | | Industrial Silicon | 8745 yuan | 0.06% | 303,843 | 277,988 | - 9783 | 49,998 | | Polysilicon | 53,610 yuan | 1.08% | 356,808 | 134,898 | - 1428 | 7820 | [14] - The report also shows the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery new energy industry chain, industrial silicon, and polysilicon from different time points [15][16][17]. Part Two: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the output of carbonate lithium was 19,963 tons, close to a record high. All lithium extraction processes' output increased. The total sample inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1580 tons, with inventory transfer to downstream. The apparent demand reached a record high, and the available inventory days dropped [4]. - **Downstream**: The report provides data on the production capacity, operating rate, and output of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [23][25]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The supply has been increasing, and the operating rate has continued to rise. Last week, the weekly output of metallic silicon was about 93,000 tons, up 2920 tons. The report also shows the production capacity and inventory data of different regions [6][27][29]. - **Downstream**: The demand from polysilicon enterprises has increased after profit improvement, while that from the organic silicon and aluminum alloy sectors is relatively weak. The export demand is good. The report provides data on the output of organic silicon and the operating rate of aluminum alloy [6][32]. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The supply is at a high level and still increasing. There are no signs of self - restricted production or production cuts from silicon material enterprises. The report shows the total inventory and monthly output data [7][34][38]. - **Downstream**: The downstream acceptance of the price increase is low, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The photovoltaic module sector faces cost and price - pressing pressures. The report provides data on the output of silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules [7][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side disturbances are causing lithium prices to continue to break through previous levels. Additionally, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite recent price corrections due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements [1][37]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase this week, with a 6.7% rise in the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index. Sub-sectors such as small metals and energy metals experienced even higher gains of 14.3% and 12.4%, respectively [10][17]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Price strength driven by tariff easing and anti-involution sentiment. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 13.16% year-on-year to 6.6276 million tons in the first half of the year, despite supply constraints [2]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term price fluctuations due to changing sentiments around anti-involution policies. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 43.975 million tons, with minor production adjustments observed [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Continued supply-side disturbances led to a price increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 14.3% to 79,000 yuan/ton. Concerns over mining license renewals may tighten supply further [2][28]. - **Silicon Metal**: Prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to market sentiment influenced by anti-involution policies, despite stable demand from downstream industries [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have corrected due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements, but the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged amid ongoing concerns over global monetary credit and public debt [1][37]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - **Shanxi International** (Buy) - **Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining** (Buy) - **Luoyang Molybdenum** (Buy) - **China Hongqiao Group** (Buy) [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Middle East situation is likely to increase the allocation to gold as a safe-haven asset, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [1][35] - The demand outlook for copper remains uncertain, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disruptions, while global copper inventories have increased slightly [1] - The aluminum market is expected to see short-term price strength due to decreasing social inventories, despite an increase in supply expectations [1] - The lithium industry is facing a continued inventory build-up, leading to a weak price outlook in the short term, with a slight increase in production but weak demand from downstream material manufacturers [2] - The silicon metal market is experiencing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand growth [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen a decline this week, with prices across various non-ferrous products also decreasing [12][21] - The report highlights that the copper price is currently at 77,990 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week, while aluminum is at 20,465 CNY/ton, also stable [23] Industrial Metals - Copper: The demand outlook is unclear, with a slight increase in global copper inventories to 519,000 tons, and a year-on-year production increase of 1.1% in Q1 2025 [1] - Aluminum: The production capacity remains stable at 43.89 million tons, with expectations of increased supply but also a potential weakening in market transactions [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 2.0% to 64,000 CNY/ton, with a production increase of 2% to 18,500 tons this week [2] - Silicon Metal: The average cost of metal silicon has decreased by 5.6% to 10,767.4 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 36,600 tons [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, and companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [3]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies and a weak dollar on gold's safe-haven appeal, suggesting that uncertainty in tariff policies may elevate gold's attractiveness [1][34]. - The copper market is experiencing a period of volatility, with prices remaining in a consolidation phase due to macroeconomic uncertainties and inventory dynamics [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by favorable domestic macro policies and declining social inventories, which are expected to bolster aluminum prices [2]. - The lithium sector is facing challenges with low prices leading to production cuts, indicating that the industry still needs to find a bottom [2]. - The silicon metal market is characterized by weak demand and oversupply, leading to a bearish price outlook in the short term [2]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold: The weak dollar and U.S. tariff uncertainties are expected to support gold prices, with recent declines attributed to market corrections [1][34]. - Copper: The market is observing a mixed macroeconomic environment, with a recent PMI reading of 52.3 indicating resilience, but concerns about future economic prospects persist [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic policies are favorable, and social inventories are decreasing, which is expected to support aluminum prices [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Current inventory levels are at 552,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 20,000 tons week-on-week, providing some support for prices [2]. - Aluminum: The theoretical operating capacity of the aluminum industry has increased to 43.865 million tons, with production recovery in certain regions [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have decreased, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 61,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.2% drop [2]. - Silicon Metal: The market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with social inventory at 582,000 tons, indicating a bearish price outlook [2]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for gold; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for lithium [1][2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [7]. Core Views - The easing of US-China tariffs is expected to positively impact metal demand, with a focus on the economic fundamentals following the tariff negotiations [1][2]. - Gold prices have fluctuated due to lower-than-expected US inflation and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a potential for future price recovery depending on tariff negotiations [1][36]. - The copper market is cautious due to high tariff levels, but inventory reductions provide some support for prices [2]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory levels and positive macro sentiment following substantial progress in US-China tariff talks [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have been affected by a 2.3% year-on-year increase in the US CPI for April, which was lower than expected, leading to a decrease in gold prices [1]. - Powell's comments suggest a higher tolerance for inflation, which may lead to fluctuations in gold prices based on tariff negotiations [1][36]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to ongoing tariff concerns, but a reduction in global copper inventory to 572,000 tons provides some support [2]. - Aluminum prices are buoyed by low inventory levels, with domestic social inventory dropping below 600,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have stabilized, with carbon lithium futures rising by 1.3% to 65,000 yuan/ton, while supply pressures are expected to persist [3]. - The lithium market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a 9% decrease in carbon lithium production this week [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and others in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, with global investment demand reaching 552 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 170% [1][36] - The easing of U.S. tariff policies has positively impacted copper prices, with a rebound observed due to improved market sentiment and a decrease in global copper inventories [2] - The lithium market is facing cost pressures, leading to a reduction in production rates, while demand remains stable, suggesting a potential stabilization in lithium prices [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In Q1 2025, global gold investment demand surged to 552 tons, with ETF inflows accounting for 226 tons, indicating strong market interest despite a 21% year-on-year decrease in central bank purchases [1][36] Industrial Metals - Copper inventories fell to 582,000 tons, with a reduction of 58,000 tons week-on-week, supporting a price rebound following the easing of tariffs [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of U.S. Federal Reserve policies and domestic production adjustments, with theoretical operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum at 43.835 million tons [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased by 3.1% to 66,000 yuan per ton, while production rates have dropped by 14% to 14,500 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] - The demand for silicon metal remains stable, but high inventory levels are expected to keep prices under pressure [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, with various buy ratings based on projected earnings growth and favorable market conditions [8]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Accumulate" rating [5] Core Views - The gold market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, while still possessing upward momentum in the medium term. Recent price fluctuations are attributed to easing tariff policies and profit-taking by bullish investors. Concerns about the sustainability of central bank gold purchases are also noted [1][36] - For industrial metals, copper is seeing a recovery in prices due to increased downstream operating rates and a significant drop in inventories. The market sentiment has improved following the easing of tariff tensions, although uncertainties from trade conflicts remain [2] - In the energy metals sector, lithium production is being constrained by cost pressures, leading to a reduction in operational rates. The market is closely monitoring inventory levels for signs of a turning point [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase in prices this week, with specific metals experiencing varied price movements [12][18] - The overall non-ferrous metal index rose by 1.5%, with energy metals up by 2.9% and precious metals down by 2.5% [18] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Downstream operating rates have improved, and global copper inventories have decreased significantly to 641,000 tons, down by 55,000 tons week-on-week. The market anticipates a price recovery due to increased demand and tight supply conditions [2] - **Aluminum**: The easing of U.S. tariff policies is expected to support aluminum prices in the short term, despite an increase in production capacity [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The production of lithium salts is being curtailed due to rising costs, with current production rates at 45%. The market is awaiting a potential inventory turning point [3] - **Silicon Metal**: High inventory levels are limiting price increases, with current social inventory at 602,000 tons. The market remains in a loose supply-demand balance [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][35] - The report highlights the mixed performance of industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, with market direction remaining uncertain due to tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are facing cost pressures that are limiting production, while the demand for lithium remains stable [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by increased ETF holdings, with a notable weekly increase of 2.58 tons in SPDR Gold ETF [1] - The market is shifting from a "hot economy + inflation" narrative to a stagflation outlook, which historically benefits gold prices [1][35] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a flat performance, with global copper inventories at 695,000 tons, down by 62,000 tons week-on-week [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to U.S. tariff policies, with theoretical operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry at 43.81 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased slightly, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 70,000 yuan/ton, while production is constrained by cost pressures [3] - The report notes a 3% decrease in lithium carbonate production to 17,400 tons, with an operating rate of 46% [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for industrial metals; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [8]