该报告预测，到2031年底，移动签约总数中预计将有三分之二是5G业务签约。到2031年，全球5G签约 数预计将达到64亿，占移动签约总数的三分之二。领先的运营商将继续部署5G SA网络，到2031年，5G SA签约数预计将超过41亿，届时将占5G签约总数的约65%。 沈建缘/文 随着5G应用的深入，用户需求已从单纯的"高速连接"转向"定制化体验"。大型手术远程应用、大型赛事 现场转播等场景，对网络的速度、稳定性、安全性提出了远超普通流量的要求。 5G时代的移动通信产业，正经历从"规模扩张"到"价值深耕"的关键转折。技术融合的深化、差异化需求 的凸显，推动着移动通信产业逻辑从"流量为王"转向"体验至上"。 爱立信东北亚区副总裁吴立东认为，"AI、云、移动通信的融合正带来市场增长的机会。但5G时代运营 商不仅要在技术端做出改变，也要在业务端改变思维和内容盈利模式。在服务场景与技术融合之间找到 平衡点，才能实现技术与商业的融合。" 2025年年末。爱立信发布的《爱立信移动市场报告》显示，到2025年年底，5G签约数预计将达到29 亿，约占全球移动签约总数的三分之一。2025年，全球5G覆盖人口将新增4亿。5G承载的 ...

"差异化连接"：从卖流量到卖服务的商业模式革命 面对5G"增量不增收"的困境，爱立信于2024年首次提出"差异化连接"理念。吴立东阐释，从"卖流 量"到"卖服务"存在三大根本区别：价值主张、客户感知和定价逻辑。 "卖流量是卖资源，卖服务是保证业务目标。"吴立东举例，远程手术需要99.999%可靠的连接，大型赛 事直播需要全程稳定，这些是"服务"所能承诺的。客户感知也随之改变，用户从只关注流量多少，转向 为体验付费。定价逻辑则变为为价值而非数据量买单。 凤凰网科技讯12月24日，全球通信设备商爱立信召开媒体沟通会，解读其最新发布的《爱立信2025移动 市场报告》及《CTO技术趋势报告》。爱立信东北亚区副总裁吴立东等嘉宾接受凤凰网科技等媒体采 访，就5G发展现状、6G前景、运营商商业模式转型以及未来技术趋势展开深度分享。 "SA(独立组网)是5G演进的核心。"张嘉隆强调。据GSMA统计，全球已商用SA网络约90张，爱立信支 持了其中50张。在SA网络基础上，网络切片、VoNR、RedCap等新服务正不断涌现。爱立信预计，未来 两到三年，其80%的5G客户将升级至SA网络。 另一个关键指标是5G中频段覆盖率。报告显 ...

Core Insights - Ericsson has participated in the China International Import Expo for the eighth consecutive year, showcasing over 80 differentiated connectivity cases and the latest achievements in AI and network integration [1] - The company emphasizes a shift from "selling connectivity" to "selling services" to address the revenue challenges faced by operators in the 5G era [3][4] - Ericsson anticipates achieving 6G commercial deployment around 2030, with a core network evolution based on 5G SA [3][12] Differentiated Connectivity - The essence of differentiated connectivity is to provide customized services based on specific application and user needs, moving away from the homogeneous service model of 4G [3][4] - This model allows users to pay for enhanced experience, predictability, and control, similar to subscription services in other industries [4] AI and Network Integration - AI is positioned as a critical technology for enabling differentiated connectivity, with Ericsson advocating for a dual empowerment approach: "Networks for AI" and "AI for Networks" [5] - AI can predict over 95% of network failures, improve spectrum and capacity efficiency by approximately 15%, and reduce energy consumption by 14% [7] 5G Private Networks - Ericsson is focusing on 5G private networks for the B2B market, with successful implementations in high-end manufacturing scenarios, such as Airbus production facilities [8] - The unique value of 5G private networks is highlighted through specific applications, such as remote control of torque parameters in manufacturing [8] Emerging Devices and Market Trends - New devices like embodied intelligence and AI glasses have specific network requirements, such as higher uplink bandwidth and low latency for real-time interactions [9] - The future is expected to see a cluster of AI-based applications and devices driving network demand, creating a positive feedback loop between devices and networks [11] Market Opportunities and Challenges - China is recognized as a leading market in 5G SA construction and B2B application exploration, but faces challenges in nationwide deployment due to its vast territory and large user base [12] - The promotion of eSIM technology in China is seen as gradual, requiring consideration of consumer acceptance and market dynamics [12] Conclusion - Ericsson views China not only as a significant market but also as a source of innovation, aiming to leverage differentiated connectivity and AI integration to transition the mobile communication industry from "scale leadership" to "value leadership" [12]

Core Insights - Ericsson showcased its latest advancements in AI-enabled networks, differentiated connectivity, and energy-efficient network products at the 8th China International Import Expo, addressing the telecom industry's revenue growth challenges and proposing differentiated connectivity as a solution [1] Group 1: 5G Commercial Challenges - The current 5G technology has strong capabilities, but operators are still using traditional revenue models from the 4G era, primarily focused on selling data, leading to homogenized services [2] - Global operators are facing stagnant ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) growth, with major Chinese operators' ARPU values also remaining flat despite high network infrastructure maturity [2] - Ericsson's solution to this challenge is differentiated connectivity, which involves packaging 5G capabilities to provide customized services for various application scenarios, shifting from "selling connectivity" to "selling services" [2] Group 2: AI and Network Integration - Despite the monetization challenges, Ericsson sees significant opportunities from AI, emphasizing that AI is essential for the industry [3] - The concept of "Networks for AI" and "AI for Networks" aims to enhance network adaptability for AI applications while leveraging AI to tackle increasing network complexities [3] - AI can predict over 95% of network faults, improve spectrum and capacity efficiency by approximately 15%, and reduce energy consumption by 14% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook on 6G - Ericsson executives indicated that the timeline for 6G is around 2030, with differentiated connectivity being a necessity not only for 5G but also for future 6G [4] - The evolution of 6G will be based on an independent 5G SA core network, and operators are encouraged to transition from NSA to SA to maximize network value and prepare for 6G [4]

Core Viewpoint - The communication industry is at a critical juncture requiring transformation, particularly in the Chinese market, which is characterized by a large user base and strong demand for 5G capabilities, yet faces challenges such as weak monetization and low user value [2][3]. Industry Overview - China has approximately 1.4 billion users, with the three major telecom operators generating around 1.96 trillion yuan in revenue, while the U.S. with 345 million users generates over 3.1 trillion yuan, and Japan with 125 million users generates over 1.3 trillion yuan [2]. - Despite leading in infrastructure coverage and performance, Chinese operators are experiencing a common industry issue of "incremental growth without revenue increase," which is exacerbated by the rise of mobile internet, cloud computing, and AI technologies [2][3]. AI Integration in Communication - AI applications in the communication sector can be categorized into two parts: AI for Network, which enhances network planning and management, and Network for AI, which ensures that telecom networks support future AI services effectively [3]. - The telecom industry has historically focused on providing consistent network connectivity, but declining revenues necessitate a shift towards platform-based network services that offer differentiated connections tailored to various applications and user needs [3][4]. Business Model Transformation - Ericsson aims to create higher value through differentiated network connections and assist the telecom industry in developing new business models, leveraging high-performance programmable networks and AI technologies [4][5]. - The challenge for enterprise users lies in upgrading networks to support more use cases and complex demands, with the benefits of differentiated network connections being clearer in terms of enhanced productivity [4][5]. Consumer Market Dynamics - In the consumer sector, Ericsson seeks to enhance user experience through superior and differentiated network connections, although the willingness to pay among users remains limited [4][5]. - The consumer market's size and subscription volume imply that even a small shift towards differentiated network services could lead to significant market changes [4]. Current Market Challenges - The scale of 5G commercial applications in China is still underdeveloped, and telecom operators are encouraged to pursue new use cases without waiting for complete technological maturity, emphasizing the need for synergy between business models and technology [6]. - Examples from the U.S. and Singapore illustrate how operators have built competitive advantages through differentiated network connections, highlighting the potential for similar strategies in the Chinese market [6].

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth and transformation of 5G technology over the past six years, emphasizing its role in driving economic development and digital transformation across various industries [1] - Despite the increase in 5G users and infrastructure, telecom operators are facing a challenge of "incremental growth without revenue increase," necessitating a shift towards differentiated connectivity strategies [2][3] Industry Overview - As of April 2025, China has established 4.439 million 5G base stations, with 1.081 billion 5G mobile users, accounting for nearly 60% of total mobile phone users [1] - Major telecom operators in China reported significant user growth, with China Mobile reaching 1.003 billion total mobile users and 578 million 5G users, while China Telecom and China Unicom reported 429 million and 349 million total mobile users, respectively [2] Revenue Challenges - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for 5G packages is only about 10% higher than that of 4G, with many users opting for low-cost packages that do not significantly boost revenue [2] - The global telecom industry is experiencing a "pipeline" dilemma, where increased data traffic does not translate into proportional revenue growth [2] Differentiated Connectivity Strategy - Leading telecom operators are exploring differentiated connectivity strategies to enhance revenue and value for both industries and end-users [2][3] - Differentiated connectivity aims to provide tailored services based on user needs, such as basic packages for casual browsing and specialized subscriptions for high-demand applications like video calls and gaming [2] Programmable Networks - High-performance programmable networks are essential for supporting differentiated connectivity services, allowing for dynamic resource allocation and improved service delivery [3][4] - The key elements of programmable networks include high performance and programmability, which enable operators to respond quickly to market changes and reduce operational costs [4][5] Future Development - The transition to high-performance programmable networks is seen as a gradual process, starting with 5G standalone and advanced networks, focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and service differentiation [4][5] - Programmable networks aim to simplify the translation of user needs into executable plans, facilitating rapid service deployment and integrating AI and automation into network management [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global telecommunications industry is facing a "growth without revenue" bottleneck, where the increase in network traffic does not translate into corresponding revenue growth, leading to a "growth reduction" phenomenon [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The traditional network service model is homogenized, failing to meet diverse market demands, resulting in a lack of differentiation between high-value and ordinary services [1]. - Operators are experiencing a "pipeline" dilemma, where the expansion of 5G networks does not yield proportional income increases [1]. Group 2: Differentiated Connectivity - "Differentiated connectivity" has become a consensus in the industry, focusing on using technology to identify the value of different services and providing customized network guarantees for high-priority applications [3]. - Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) exemplifies this approach by offering tiered service packages based on user needs, transforming operators from mere traffic providers to "service value definers" [3]. Group 3: Programmable Networks and AI Integration - Ericsson views programmable networks as a core development goal for 5G-A, enabling dynamic network configuration based on business needs through software-defined networking (SDN) and network function virtualization (NFV) [5]. - The integration of AI is reshaping network management, transitioning from passive to proactive management, with AI acting as a "network brain" for autonomous decision-making [5][7]. Group 4: Ecosystem Development - Ericsson is building an open ecosystem to attract third-party developers, creating a "network as a service" economic model, with a RAN ecosystem comprising 56 members [8]. - The acquisition of Vonage and the establishment of Aduna aim to create a CPaaS ecosystem, addressing fragmentation in network capability and enhancing collaboration with developers [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the commercial launch of 5G-A, challenges remain, including deployment strategy delays in some regions and low penetration rates of new terminals [9]. - Ericsson proposes a dual-track development strategy to enhance 5G-A capabilities while promoting end-to-end differentiated services, aiming to redefine the telecommunications industry's revenue model and digital infrastructure [9].