总体来说，2026年人民币不会大幅升值，央行的目标仍是保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳 定。 格隆汇1月28日｜据一财，2025年底离岸人民币对美元汇率突破7的整数关口并持续回升，沈建光认为， 主要受到三个关键性因素驱动。一是2025年中国经常账户余额或创历史新高；二是近期中国政府采取多 种举措提振经济；三是美元的疲软有利于人民币汇率。 展望后市，沈建光认为，首先，巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应等长期因素并不支持人民币汇率明显升值。其 次，从总需求等周期性因素看，2026年我国内需增长仍有较大不确定性，外需仍然是支持中国经济增长 的关键。同时，近期地缘政治变动对中国外需的负面影响也值得关注。 ...

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is attributed to three main factors: the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the US government's fluctuating policies towards Europe, and heightened market vigilance regarding potential Japanese government intervention in the currency market [2] - Increased corporate demand for currency exchange towards the end of the year has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the Renminbi, particularly as previously accumulated demand from high export growth is being released [2] - Current high market sentiment is playing a significant role in supporting the Renminbi's strong performance, leading to its recent rise above the 7 mark against the dollar [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that long-term factors such as the Balassa-Samuelson effect do not support a significant appreciation of the Renminbi, and uncertainties in domestic demand may impact future growth [2] - Geopolitical changes are also expected to negatively affect China's external demand, which remains crucial for economic growth [2] - In the event of significant fluctuations in the Renminbi exchange rate that deviate from fundamental values, regulatory measures will likely be implemented to stabilize the market and manage offshore Renminbi volatility [3]

央行目标仍是保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 2025年底离岸人民币对美元汇率突破7的整数关口并持续回升，笔者认为，主要受到三个关键性因素驱 动。 一是2025年中国经常账户余额或创历史新高。2025年前11个月，海关口径的中国货物贸易顺差首次突破 了1万亿美元；根据国家外汇管理局公布的国际收支平衡表数据，2025年前三季度，我国经常账户顺差 为4928亿美元，较2024年同期2413亿美元大幅增长。经常账户余额上升一般会增加市场对人民币的需 求，提振人民币汇率。 二是近期中国政府采取多种举措提振经济。例如，中央政府允许在地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿 元，用于补充地方政府综合财力和扩大有效投资；投放5000亿元新型政策性金融工具资金支持项目建设 等。2025年12月中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）达到50.1，高于市场预期。经济数据超出预期也改善 了市场对中国经济的信心，有助于人民币走强。 三是美元的疲软有利于人民币汇率。2025年11月下旬以来，美元指数有所回落。美元走弱受到近几个月 美国非农就业疲软、美股高估值引发市场关切、美联储连续降息并可能在2026年继续降息的影响，此外 美元信用受 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in the RMB exchange rate are influenced by multiple internal and external factors, and it is expected that the RMB will not experience significant appreciation in 2026 [2][9]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The current account balance of China is expected to reach a historical high in 2025, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time and a current account surplus of $492.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a significant increase from $241.3 billion in the same period of 2024 [3][11]. - The Chinese government has implemented various measures to boost the economy, including allocating 500 billion yuan for local government financial support and investing another 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools for project construction [3][11]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 reached 50.1, exceeding market expectations, which has improved market confidence in the Chinese economy [3][11]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The recent depreciation of the US dollar has positively impacted the RMB exchange rate, with the dollar index declining since late November 2025 due to weak non-farm employment data and concerns over high valuations in the US stock market [3][11]. - The Balassa-Samuelson effect suggests that long-term factors do not support significant appreciation of the RMB, as the growth of labor productivity in China has slowed down in recent years [4][12]. - The average annual growth rate of overall labor productivity in China dropped from 9.5% (2005-2014) to 5.8% (2015-2024), indicating a change in the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate [5][13]. Group 3: External Factors - Geopolitical changes have negatively impacted China's external demand, with the share of the US market in China's exports declining from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.8% in the first eleven months of 2025 [6][14]. - The importance of non-US markets has increased, with Latin America’s share in China's exports rising from 5.8% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2025 [6][14]. - Maintaining the price competitiveness of Chinese export products in international markets is crucial, as excessive appreciation of the RMB could hinder exports [6][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Overall, the RMB is not expected to appreciate significantly in 2026, with the central bank aiming to maintain the exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [7][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan and its impact on the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of the ongoing internationalization of the yuan and the changing global economic landscape. Group 1: Yuan Appreciation and Economic Impact - The offshore yuan exchange rate reached a high of 7.43 in April 2025 and strengthened to break the 7.0 mark by the end of the year, marking a significant recovery since the trade war lows [1][4] - The appreciation of the yuan is seen as a reflection of China's economic resilience amidst external pressures, particularly from the US trade protectionism [1][6] - The current level of the yuan is not considered "seriously undervalued," but there are some factors contributing to its perceived undervaluation, including structural issues in the domestic economy [5][9] Group 2: Structural Factors Influencing Yuan Valuation - The dual nature of the yuan's exchange rate, reflecting both real economic conditions and financial market dynamics, complicates the assessment of its valuation [5][6] - Domestic market segmentation and competition have led to price suppression, contributing to the undervaluation of the yuan [7][9] - The overall price level in China has improved, indicating that the yuan is not as undervalued as previously thought, countering claims from Western nations [4][5] Group 3: Internationalization of the Yuan - The article emphasizes the importance of the yuan's appreciation for its internationalization, suggesting that a stable and gradually appreciating yuan could enhance its role as a global reserve currency [25][30] - The current global economic environment, characterized by a weakening dollar and rising inflation in Western countries, presents an opportunity for the yuan to gain traction as a safe asset [12][25] - The potential for the yuan to become a credible alternative to the US dollar is linked to China's ability to provide stable and reliable financial assets, particularly in the context of increasing skepticism towards US debt [27][30] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The article suggests that while the yuan can appreciate, it should do so at a controlled pace to avoid market distortions and excessive speculation [22][23] - Internal reforms aimed at improving wage levels and price structures are recommended as a means to support the yuan's appreciation sustainably [23][24] - The need for China to enhance its soft power and narrative in the global market is highlighted as crucial for gaining pricing power and furthering the yuan's internationalization [34][35]