朋友们，我是帮主郑重。站在2026年的起点，我相信很多朋友和我一样，面对着看似矛盾的市场信号： 一边是机构预警AI泡沫可能破灭、全球增长面临不确定性；另一边，是量子计算、脑机接口这些颠覆 性技术加速向我们驶来。大家心里可能都有一个问号：2026年，机会到底在哪？今天的钱，又该投向何 方？ 作为一位和资本市场打了20年交道的观察者，我的答案不是一份"致富代码清单"，而是几条相对清晰 的、值得用中长线眼光去审视和布局的核心主线。在我看来，2026年的投资机会，正蕴藏在这"新与 旧"、"实与虚"、"内与外"的几重转换之中。 第二，坚持"深度研究"，警惕"故事投资"。 无论是AI还是其他赛道，随着产业成熟，市场会越来越"精 明"。仅靠宏大叙事已经不够，订单、收入、利润、现金流这些硬指标的重要性会空前提升。深入理解 一家公司的商业模式和竞争壁垒，比追逐热点标签更重要。 第三，保持"长期主义"的耐心与"中场休息"的纪律。 中长线投资不是买了就一动不动，它需要我们在 看准的长期方向上保持耐心，陪伴优秀公司成长。同时，也要有在中场（比如估值阶段性过高时）适度 休息、控制风险的纪律，这样才能走得更远。 总而言之，2026年的画 ...

编者按：2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，稳健起步至关重要。而作为"十四五"规划的收官之年， 2025年是中国经济与金融发展历程中值得铭记的一年。2025年，面对来自美国的贸易保护主义风暴，中 国经济展现出强大韧性，成为全球主要经济体中的稳定支柱。同时，人民币对美元离岸汇率自贸易战低 点持续回升，在年末实现在岸、离岸人民币汇率7.0双突破。 在此承前启后的时间节点，怎么看待人民币升值对中国经济的影响、如何展望人民币国际化的未来路 径，观察者网特邀复旦大学国际金融研究中心主任、中国国际金融学会理事杨长江教授进行深度解读。 【整理/观察者网 唐晓甫】 观察者网：回顾2025年，离岸人民币汇率在4月份曾触及7.43的高点，随后人民币一路走强，终于在年 底突破7.0，进入了"6时代"。这是自2024年9月底以来，离岸人民币汇率首次突破7.0关口。从您的角度 看，当前人民币的升值趋势是否合理？长期以来，国际上一直存在关于人民币"被低估"的讨论甚至炒 作，部分声音鼓吹人民币需要大幅、快速升值。我们应如何看待来自美欧等地的这类观点？ 杨长江：探讨这个问题，首先要做一个根本性判断：当前人民币汇率水平是否处于"严重低估"状 ...

来源：东方财富App 推动本轮行情的核心，并非短期情绪，而是多重结构性力量的共振。美国11月失业率升至4.6%；核心CPI同比仅上涨2.8%。数据持续释放经济降温信号， 强化了市场对美联储在2026年继续降息的预期。与此同时，日本央行如期加息，利空提前消化，促使资金回流黄金进行中长期配置。 COMEX黄金价格已站上4538美元/盎司，面对历史新高，普通投资者最现实的问题是：现在还能买吗？ 作者：胡群 封图：图虫创意 当COMEX黄金冲破4500美元、全年涨幅超过70%，市场终于意识到：这场上涨不是投机狂欢，而是一场关于"什么是真正安全资产"的全球投票。截至发 稿前，COMEX黄金价格已站上4538美元/盎司，12月24日更一度触及4555.1美元的历史新高。2025年由此成为自1979年以来黄金表现最强劲的一年。 钱放银行不如买金条？ 对普通家庭而言，2025年的理财环境充满挑战。一年期定期存款利率普遍不足1.8%，而实际通胀虽回落，但叠加房价低迷、股市震荡、理财产品净值化 波动，传统"稳赚"渠道几乎消失。在此背景下，黄金以其无信用风险、可实物持有、全球通用的特性，重新赢得大众青睐。 实物黄金价格同样上涨惊人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to gold prices rising above $4,100 per ounce, driven by ongoing challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] Group 1 - The long-term upward trend in gold prices remains intact, supported by multiple issues facing the U.S. government and persistent global geopolitical tensions [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in the market during subsequent pullbacks and to gradually accumulate positions [1] Group 2 - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are highlighted as potential investment options [1] - Gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain are also recommended for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly focusing on the fluctuations in the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index and the significant developments in the rare earth materials sector, which could impact investment opportunities in the future [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of November 24, 2025, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) decreased by 1.95%, with mixed performances among constituent stocks [1]. - Notable gainers included Huaxi Nonferrous (600301) up 6.95%, Huayu Mining (601020) up 5.16%, and Xiyue Co. (000960) up 1.81% [1]. - Conversely, Guocheng Mining (000688) led the declines with a drop of 10.00%, followed by Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) down 9.99% and Tianqi Lithium (002466) down 9.15% [1]. - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) fell by 1.94%, with a latest price of 1.41 yuan, but showed a 22.97% increase over the past three months as of November 21 [1]. Fund Flow and Liquidity - The Nonferrous 50 ETF saw a turnover of 1.68% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 48.4455 million yuan [1]. - Over the past two weeks, the ETF's scale increased by 120 million yuan, reaching a new high of 2.025 billion shares [3]. - The latest net inflow for the ETF was 183 million yuan, with a total of 271 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [3]. Technological Advancements - A breakthrough research achievement by universities in China and Singapore was published in Nature, addressing the efficient electroluminescence of insulating rare earth nanocrystals, which could transform China's rare earth resource strategy from raw material export to high-value technology output [3]. - This technology demonstrated a 76-fold increase in electroluminescent device efficiency and the ability to achieve full-spectrum emission through rare earth ion modulation [3]. Future Outlook - The outlook for industrial metals suggests that supply constraints will drive copper prices upward, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to improve [6]. - The gold market is anticipated to continue its bullish trend, with silver showing greater elasticity due to macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cycles and global trade tensions [6]. - The lithium market is experiencing adjustments due to price drops affecting high-cost production, while demand from the electric vehicle sector remains strong [6]. - Tungsten, as a strategic metal, is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and growing demand in emerging sectors [7]. Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" at 46%, leading in its category [7]. - The ETF focuses on core strategic metals with high demand and supply gaps, featuring a high concentration of leading companies [7]. - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases [8].

Core Insights - The issuance of $4 billion in Chinese sovereign bonds attracted a staggering $118.2 billion in subscriptions, achieving a subscription rate 30 times higher than the amount issued, indicating a strong global interest in Chinese dollar bonds compared to U.S. Treasury bonds [4][6]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The Chinese bonds had competitive interest rates, with a 3-year rate of 3.646% and a 5-year rate of 3.787%, which are nearly on par with U.S. Treasury rates [3][4]. - The distribution of investors showed that 53% of the subscription funds came from Asia, 25% from Europe, 16% from the Middle East, and 6% from U.S. investors, highlighting a diverse global interest [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Context - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.1 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6]. - China, with over $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, is not issuing dollar bonds due to a cash shortage but rather as a strategic financial maneuver [6][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The issuance sets a new interest rate benchmark for Chinese enterprises seeking to raise funds in international markets, providing a reference point for future dollar bond issuances [8]. - The funds raised will support infrastructure projects along the Belt and Road Initiative, creating a cycle where international capital flows into China and then is reinvested globally [8][10]. Group 4: Global Financial Dynamics - This issuance allows China to redefine the concept of "safe assets" in the international financial system, challenging existing credit ratings by demonstrating strong market demand [6][10]. - By becoming an active dollar allocator rather than a passive holder, China is reshaping global capital flows and potentially paving the way for the internationalization of the renminbi [10][14]. Group 5: Hong Kong's Role - The choice to issue bonds in Hong Kong reinforces its status as an international financial center, with China having issued a total of $25 billion in sovereign bonds there since 2017 [12]. - The high subscription rates for Chinese bonds compared to U.S. Treasuries suggest that international investors view Chinese sovereign credit ratings as comparable to those of the U.S. [12][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a new paradigm in asset allocation for residents due to the changing global macro environment, where traditional safe assets are losing their foundational stability [1] - The report suggests that the long-term perspective should embrace equity assets and industrial trends, utilizing a multi-cycle nested system for effective asset allocation [1] - It highlights that the recovery of corporate profits and the leadership of the AI industry by China and the US present significant investment opportunities, particularly in the technology sector [1] Group 2 - In the global asset allocation context, it recommends focusing on countries with favorable fundamentals and timing investments after technical corrections, particularly in the US, Japan, Eurozone, India, and Vietnam [1] - The report notes that the bond market's core logic has shifted from seeking yield to pursuing diversification, with expectations of monetary policy easing benefiting the bond market [2] - It indicates that gold remains in a long-term structural bull market despite recent healthy corrections, while oil supply surplus is a concern due to geopolitical factors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks are expected to continue driving funds into the gold market, maintaining an upward trend in gold prices. However, the influx of investment funds through ETFs has made gold prices more volatile [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21, New York gold futures fell by $250.3 (5.7%) to $4,109.1 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in history. The downward trend continued into Asian trading on October 22 [3]. - Gold prices had previously shown a rare upward trend, with a significant increase following the announcement of the dismissal of a Federal Reserve official in late August. By October 7, prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4,398 per ounce by October 20, an increase of nearly $400 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sell-off in gold was exacerbated by speculative funds collapsing rapidly, as noted by a representative from the Japan Market Strategy Institute. The intensifying U.S.-China tensions and credit risks in U.S. regional banks have diminished concerns that previously supported higher gold prices [5]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that demand for gold is projected to reach approximately 170 tons in the April to June 2025 period, accounting for about 20% of total demand, a stark contrast to nearly zero demand in the same period a year prior. This highlights the increased volatility in gold prices due to investor fund allocation [5]. - Analysts suggest that the significant increase in gold ETF demand has become a potential source of selling pressure, contributing to the recent price drops in other precious metals like silver and platinum, which fell by 7% and 8% respectively [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, the perception of gold as a "safe asset" remains unchanged. Most analysts believe that the decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks will continue to drive funds into the gold market, sustaining an upward price trend [5]. - There is a notable shift in the perception of price stability, with experts indicating that gold prices are likely to experience significant fluctuations in the future [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, signals a significant shift in investor perception of safe assets, moving away from traditional options like the US dollar and treasury bonds [1][2] - As of October 2025, gold prices have increased by 44% since the beginning of the year, reaching a historical high of $4,041 per ounce, indicating a departure from normal market behavior [1] - Central banks globally are accumulating gold, with the World Gold Council reporting that by Q2 2025, gold reserves held by central banks will account for 14.8% of total reserves, the highest in 30 years [1] Group 2 - In August 2025, the value of gold in global central bank reserves reached $4.5 trillion, surpassing the $3.5 trillion value of US treasury bonds, indicating a shift in the perception of safe assets among financial authorities [2] - Since 2022, central banks have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, with projections of an additional 900-950 tons in 2025, reflecting a strategic long-term investment approach rather than short-term trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold retail prices in Japan is influenced by multiple factors, including domestic economic policies and international geopolitical concerns [1] Domestic Factors - The expectation that the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, will implement expansionary fiscal policies has led to a rapid depreciation of the yen [1] - On October 8, the yen to dollar exchange rate fell below 152 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level in approximately eight months [1] - As a result of the yen's depreciation, gold prices in yen terms have increased [1] International Factors - Ongoing concerns regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown and international geopolitical tensions have heightened demand for gold, which is viewed as a safe-haven asset [1]