深圳商报•读创客户端首席记者 魏沛娜 中国友谊出版公司 2025年6月 伦敦大学学院教授德马里斯·科夫曼在本书引言中指出，本书所讨论的经济学家远不是什么平庸的"学术 涂鸦人"。他们不仅深刻地影响了人们对市场干预与监管、税收、贸易和货币政策的看法，而且他们的 理论已经成为人们谈论经济和社会生活的基础和框架——劳动分工、比较优势、剩余价值、边际效用、 税收国家、总需求、理性选择理论、货币数量论、纳什均衡、认知偏差与前景理论、社会选择理论和信 息不对称，这是其中一些最具影响力的理论。 "越来越多的人认识到，新经济思维需要以全面的历史理解为基础。然而，要全面理解历史并充分发挥 其价值，我们需要深入研究过去理论的分析结构——过去理论在逻辑上往往与当前理论一样严谨。只有 通过这种方式，我们才能够正确地比较各种理论框架，而经济学家也才能够从过去和现在的各种经济理 论中获得适用于特定历史背景的知识。"德马里斯·科夫曼认为，本书的亮点在于，它集结了不同经济学 家和历史学家的文章，呈现了经济思想史和经济分析史两种方法的融合，有助于丰富读者对经济文献的 连续性和不连续性的理解。每篇文章所描绘的思想家都拥有共同的智识兴趣，可以为读者 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

澳洲联储：委员会对经济前景仍持谨慎态度，特别是在总需求和总供给方面的不确定性加剧的情况下。 ...

站在仙林校区远眺，紫金山麓商圈与保税物流中心交相辉映。学习宏观经济学，不仅要掌握模型推导， 而且要以全局视角洞察经济，在数据曲线中读懂民生与开放。我们是中国经济发展的观察者，也是未来 的推动者。 在南京财经大学的宏观经济课堂上，"三期叠加"理论解析中国经济转型，"菲利普斯曲线"结合长三角制 造业PMI数据，让我明白宏观经济并非数字游戏，而是与国家发展、人民生活紧密相连的生动实践。今 年政府工作报告提出"着力扩大国内需求"，总需求理论映照现实：江苏一季度社会消费品零售总额同比 增长5.6%，背后是促消费政策、市场联动和内外贸一体化发展，如新能源汽车下乡拓市场、南京新街 口"首店经济"与苏州跨境电商综试区形成供需双向联动等。 作为国际经贸专业学生，我十分关注内外需联动。课堂上，老师对比"十四五"进出口数据，中国从"世 界工厂"向"世界市场"转变，彰显经济韧性；进博会引进的德国精密机床用于常州新能源汽车核心部件 生产，再借"一带一路"海外仓销往东南亚，验证了开放型经济对宏观经济的拉动，也诠释了双循环新发 展格局的实践逻辑。 小组讨论"高质量发展阶段的宏观政策取向"时，同学们用潜在增长率分析人口结构对消费的影响，结合 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 /宏观专题 出口角度看产业升级 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 总需求偏弱在 2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议中就有重点强调，即"我 国经济运行仍面临不少困难和挑战，主要是国内需求不足"。那么总需求 偏弱是否会干扰产业升级呢？ 为了考察需求偏弱对产业升级的影响，我们需要对产业升级进行定量描 述。按出口结构变化，可以将制造业分为符合升级方向的高增长组、不 符合升级方向的低增长组。 上述数据我们可以勾勒出故事的全貌。 综合来看，需求不足很有可能会对产业升级造成干扰，这就可以理解为 何 2024 年底经济工作会议会如此重视需求不足的问题，并且始终把提 升居民收入放在非常重要的位置。一旦需求不足的问题得以扭转，我国 经济发展的主旋律其实还是产业升级、产业高端化、居民收入提升、居 民消费升级的螺旋式前进的过程。那么一旦总需求不足的问题得以扭 转，资本市场也必将迎来科技创新、消费升级所引领的长牛。 风险提示：地缘政治风险上升、全球经济增速不及预期 [Table_Info1] 证券研究报告 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-07-01 相关数据 [Ta ...

金十数据6月27日讯，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度例会于6月23日召开，会议指出，把 做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，增强宏观政策协调配合，用好用 足存量政策，加力实施增量政策，充分释放政策效应，扩大内需、稳定预期、激发活力，推动经济持续 回升向好。 央行：统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，增强宏观政策协调配合 ...

为什么要实行适度宽松的货币政策 ■王宇 4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作，强调要加紧实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环 境急剧变化的不确定性。本文将以中央政治局会议精神作为指导，通过对国际国内经济环境变化的分 析，说明为什么要实行适度宽松的货币政策，如何认识适度宽松的货币政策，以及如何实施好适度宽松 的货币政策。 PART.01 第一，世界经贸增幅放缓，不确定性增加。 最近一个时期，世界经济环境更趋复杂，贸易保护主义升温，不确定性增加，世界经济和国际贸易增幅 放缓。近日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)将2025年全球经济增速从3.3%下调至2.8%;世界贸易组织(WTO)将 2025年全球贸易增速从3.2%下调至1.7%。 此轮全球经贸放缓的主要原因是美国政府的关税政策和贸易政策及其不确定性。从关税政策看，美国政 府加征关税，推高了企业贸易成本，增大了国内通胀压力，使美联储不得不在高位按下降息的暂停键， 造成经济增长放缓。从贸易政策看，政策和政策预期是投资决策的重要依据，在目前美国贸易政策高度 不确定的条件下 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 11 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 11 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周二上证指数下跌 0.4%，沪深 300 下跌 0.5%，科创 50 下跌 1.5%，中证 1000 下跌 0.9%，创业板指下跌 1.2%，恒生指数下跌 0.1%。 ❑ 行业：周二表现最好的行业分别是美容护理（+1.1%)、银行（+0.5%)、医药生物（+0.3%)、交通运输（+0.2%)、 传媒（+0.2%)，表现最差的行业分别是国防军工（-2.0%)、计算机（-1.9%)、电子（-1.7%)、通信（-1.4%)、非银 金融（-1.1%)。 ❑ 资金：周二沪深两市总成交额为 14153 亿元，南下资金净流入 75.9 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商宏观 李超/廖博】宏观专题研究：5 月通胀：物价延续弱势运行，等待总需求侧发力——2025 ...

温彬（中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长） 王静文（中国民生银行研究院宏观研究中心主任） 5月物价大致符合市场预期。其中，CPI表现为"食品强、能源弱、核心稳"，PPI表现为"生产资料弱，生 活资料稳"。总需求不足状况有待改善。 5月食品价格环比-0.2%，降幅小于季节性水平1.1个百分点，其中，应季蔬菜上市量增加，鲜菜价格环 比下降5.9%；受部分地区暴雨天气影响，鲜果价格环比上涨3.3%；猪肉供需双增，市场价格震荡盘 整，全月环比-0.7%。三大品类分别较季节性水平高2.9、2.6和1.0个百分点，带动食品价格强于季节 性。 5月能源价格环比-1.7%，弱于季节性。其中，受国际原油价格下跌影响，国内成品油价格下调。5月汽 油价格环比下降3.8%，而历史同期为环比上涨1.4%，明显弱于季节性。 如果剔除食品和能源，从更能反映需求情况的核心CPI来看，5月环比不变，符合季节性表现。由于去 年同期基数下滑，同比上涨0.6%，较上月的0.5%涨幅略有扩大。 核心商品方面，耐用消费品三大件价格均环比下降，如交通工具价格环比-0.4%，通信工具价格环 比-0.7%，家用器具价格环比-1.1%，均弱于季节性，应主要同 ...

在构建新发展格局新形势下，统筹好总供给与总需求的辩证关系已成为实现经济高质量发展的内在要 求。总供给是指一个国家或地区在一定时期内由社会生产活动实际提供的产品和服务总量，而总需求则 是指在同一时期内由社会用于投资或消费的支出所形成的购买力总量。如果总供给长期大于或小于总需 求，会导致资源浪费或资源短缺，进而引发经济失衡甚至剧烈波动。习近平总书记强调："供给和需求 是市场经济内在关系的两个基本方面，是既对立又统一的辩证关系，二者你离不开我、我离不开你，相 互依存、互为条件。"这既是对马克思主义政治经济学供需平衡理论的继承发展，也是应对我国经济发 展阶段转换的实践创新。当前，外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，我国经济运行仍面临不少困难和挑 战，亟需通过深化供给侧结构性改革与实施扩大内需战略的有机协同，破解消费供给的结构性矛盾，畅 通国民经济整体循环。 供给创造需求与需求牵引供给的互动规律 马克思主义政治经济学深刻揭示了供给与需求的内在统一性。马克思指出，"生产直接是消费，消费直 接是生产"，强调生产与消费、供给与需求互为条件、相互转化的辩证关系。从现代经济学视角看，总 供给与总需求的平衡体现为"双向适配"机制，供给 ...