氧化铝期货的市场基差是指现货价格与期货价格之间的差异，其计算公式为：基差=现货价格-期货价 格。 这一指标反映了市场供需、仓储成本、政策预期等多重因素的动态博弈，对期货交易策略（如套期保 值、期现套利）具有重要指导意义。 基差形成的主要因素： 1、供需关系：现货市场短期紧缺（如电解铝增产或氧化铝减产）会推高现货价格，导致正基差扩大。 例如2024年12月氧化铝2501合约基差达496元/吨，因流通货源少而现货价格坚挺。期货价格若提前反映 未来供应宽松预期（如2025年新增产能释放），可能形成负基差。 2、成本与物流：铝土矿运输瓶颈或仓储成本上升会扩大基差。例如几内亚矿石出口暂停曾引发期货价 格领涨现货，导致基差为负值（-329元/吨）。 3、政策与市场预期：环保限产、关税调整等政策会引发区域性基差异动。临近交割月时，基差通常收 敛，但流动性风险可能削弱回归性。 基差对交易的意义： 1、套期保值：需动态调整头寸以对冲基差波动风险。 2、套利机会：基差偏离历史均值时（如氧化铝基差率处于统计区间80%以上），可能存在期现套利空 间。 3、价格预测：基差结构（如远月贴水）可反映市场对供需的长期预期。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices rebounded, strengthening the cost support of oil - based production. Propane prices rose slightly, and the profit of PDH - made PP was near the break - even point. The number of PE shutdown and maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure. However, the overall current operation was still at a relatively high level, with inventory accumulation in production enterprises and certain de - stocking pressure upstream. The PP operation rate was flat month - on - month, and the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links decreased slightly. The new 900,000 - ton/year Phase II device of Daxie Petrochemical started trial operation, and it was expected to produce qualified products soon. The continuous release of new production capacity would bring greater supply pressure in the long - term. The recovery of downstream demand was slow. The agricultural film entered the seasonal demand conversion stage, with the overall order follow - up slow and the terminal operation recovering slightly [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory a. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract was 7,423 yuan/ton (+43), and the closing price of the PP main contract was 7,074 yuan/ton (+36). The LL North China spot price was 7,270 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price was 7,320 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot price was 6,980 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was - 153 yuan/ton (-43), the LL East China basis was - 103 yuan/ton (-43), and the PP East China basis was - 94 yuan/ton (-36) [1] b. Production Profit and Operation Rate - The PE operation rate was 78.7% (-5.5%), and the PP operation rate was 78.2% (+0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 332.5 yuan/ton (+17.9), the PP oil - based production profit was - 247.5 yuan/ton (+17.9), and the PDH - made PP production profit was 88.2 yuan/ton (+12.0) [1] c. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the provided text d. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 44.2 yuan/ton (+23.4), the PP import profit was - 556.9 yuan/ton (+3.4), and the PP export profit was 36.6 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] e. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operation rate was 14.5% (+0.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operation rate was 49.9% (+0.8%), the PP downstream plastic braiding operation rate was 42.0% (+0.6%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operation rate was 60.7% (-0.5%) [1] f. Polyolefin Inventory - PE shutdown and maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall current operation was still at a relatively high level, with inventory accumulation in production enterprises and certain de - stocking pressure upstream. The PP operation rate was flat month - on - month, and the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links decreased slightly [2]