【笔记20251117— 0.3BP玩一天（+中日关系紧张+股市小幅下跌+资金面收敛转松=微下)】 交易量小，说明市场多空分歧大，互相不让价；而交易量大，说明多空双方在某一个阶段，对价格都非常认可，多空能量也将集中释放。此后，必然要做 休整，重新聚集能量。可归纳为： 能量聚集 - 能量释放 - 中场休息 - 能量再聚集 - 再释放 - 再休息。 ——笔记哥《应对》 今日10Y国债利率最低1.800%、最高1.803%，0.3BP玩一天。债农：低波之后必见高波。上一次还是2024年6月，10Y国债困在2.30%附近装死，之后两个 月下行20BP。这次能不能也来个"向下高波"？ 外交部提醒大家近期避免"赴日"，股民表示：领导放心，我们只想"俘日"！今日大A小跌0.46%，日经225微跌0.1%，有点来气。不过听说高市早苗正在反 省其涉台言论，还算识相！ 【今日盘面】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1199亿元逆回购到期，净投放1631亿元。 税期资金面收敛转松，资金利率上行，DR001在1.51%附近，DR007在1.52%附近。 | | | | 银行间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market and stock market, highlighting the mixed performance of long-term bond yields and the slight decline in the stock market due to rumors and regulatory changes affecting redemption fees [3][6]. Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 403.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan after 117.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3]. - The liquidity in the market is stabilizing, with the rates for DR001 and DR007 both around 1.51% [4]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.803% after initial movements [6]. - The article notes that the special government bonds (特6) are not set to be renewed next year, which caused a brief spike in yields before returning to previous levels [7]. Stock Market Performance - The stock market saw a slight decline, attributed to the impact of new redemption regulations and rumors regarding the special government bonds [6]. - The A-share market has been fluctuating around the 4000-point mark for four consecutive days, indicating a lack of decisive movement [7]. Interest Rate Trends - The weighted rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.54%, R007 at 1.51%, and R014 at 1.53%, with slight changes noted in the past 30 days [5]. - The government bond yields for different maturities show a range of rates, with the 10-year bond at 1.8040% and the ultra-long bond at 2.1525% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting its perceived decline in importance compared to the stock market, especially in light of recent economic data and market reactions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.805% after opening at 1.81% [5][6]. - Recent inflation data for October was slightly above expectations, contributing to a cautious sentiment in the bond market [5][6]. - The stock market showed mixed reactions, initially declining but later recovering as news of a potential end to the government shutdown emerged [5][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan, with a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan after 78.3 billion yuan matured [3]. - The liquidity in the market is tightening, with the DR001 and DR007 rates hovering around 1.48% and 1.50%, respectively [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate a slight increase, with R001 at 1.52% and R007 at 1.50%, reflecting a mixed trend in the short-term funding market [4][9]. - The article notes a divergence in expectations for the 10-year government bond yield, with forecasts ranging from a lower bound of 1.2% to an upper bound of 2.1% [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of consistency between entry and exit strategies in trading, emphasizing that short-term trades should not be prolonged into long-term investments [1] - It highlights the recent market conditions, noting a decrease in long-term bond yields and a shift in the funding environment, with the central bank conducting a 2025 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation [1][2] - The article mentions the geopolitical tensions, specifically Israel's attack on Iran, which has led to a decline in stock markets and fluctuations in oil and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The funding rates in the interbank market show a mixed trend, with R001 at 1.46% and R007 at 1.58%, indicating a slight increase in the latter [2] - The central bank's actions, including a net injection of 2000 billion yuan through reverse repos in June, reflect a proactive approach to manage liquidity in the market [3] - The article notes the overall weak financial data released, which aligns with the central bank's recent monetary policy measures [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of market rumors and the behavior of investors in response to these rumors, emphasizing the importance of following market trends regardless of the truth behind the rumors [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,425 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 1,065 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 360 billion yuan [2]. - The interbank funding market showed a slight increase in funding prices, with DR001 around 1.57% and DR007 around 1.59% [2]. - The morning saw a tightening of the funding environment, while the afternoon experienced a loosening, leading to mixed movements in the bond market [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The issuance scale of government bonds was relatively high today, with the 10-year government bond rate opening slightly higher at 1.6875% before fluctuating downwards [4]. - The 10-year government bond rate reached around 1.7% during the day, influenced by tax payments and market sentiment [4]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield has surged by 85 basis points to 2.96% since early April, raising concerns about potential impacts on the domestic bond market [4]. Group 3: Revenue Comparisons - From January to April, the national non-tax revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, marking a historical high for the same period [4]. - In contrast, local land transfer revenue was 934 billion yuan, which is half of the historical high in 2021 (2,138.3 billion yuan), representing the lowest level since 2015 for the same period [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market fluctuations and the tendency of investors to engage in "revenge trading" after experiencing losses or missed opportunities, indicating a psychological response to market volatility [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,065 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 770 billion yuan reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 295 billion yuan [2]. - The interbank funding market showed a tightening trend in the morning, with the funding rates significantly rising; DR001 and DR007 increased by 22 basis points and 11 basis points, respectively, reaching around 1.63% [2]. - The bond market sentiment was cautious, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.67% and peaking at 1.685%, reflecting a weak issuance sentiment for 20-year bonds [4]. Group 2: Trading Dynamics - The trading volume in the repo market showed a decline, with R001 at 59,107.07 million yuan, down by 6,446.34 million yuan, and R007 at 7,625.09 million yuan, up by 687.90 million yuan [3]. - The overall market saw a slight decline in stock prices, with the sentiment in the bond market remaining cautious and the funding rates fluctuating throughout the day [4]. - The article notes that each "rate cut" tends to create a feeling of "rate hike," indicating a cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy changes [5].