固 收 研 究 / 固 收 市 场 周 报 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 固收市场周报 节后曲线整体走阔，关注两会前后市场博弈情况 ——利率市场周度回顾（20260301） 2026 年 03 月 03 日 【固收观点】 全周来看，10Y 国债活跃券 250016 收益率较前一周上行 1.05BP 至 1.7880%。 【风险提示】 2026.03.01 货币与财政政策超预期、基本面修复超预期、地缘政治冲突超预期 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：刘哲铭 证书编号：S1160525120003 证券分析师：袁梦茹 证书编号：S1160526010008 相关研究 《上海楼市新政出炉，中国调整对加贸易 政策——政策周度观察》 《节前流动性仍较宽松，各期限收益率均 有 下 行 — — 利 率 市 场 周 度 回 顾 （20260215）》 2026.02.22 《大类资产配置周报——20260213》 2026.02.22 《信用修复延续，把握结构性机会》 2026.02.22 《如何理解与应对高估值？——可转债策 略周报》 2026.02.13 节后资金面整体稳中向宽，跨月扰动不大，市场杠杆率小 ...

摘 要 未来一周资金的核心扰动因素聚焦于资金跨节，地方政府债发行等，预计跨春节等因素导致资金价格可能环比周五（2月6日）略上抬，资金分层加大，非 银杠杆套息策略或受到一定影响，但央行在春节特殊时间点会延续呵护，因此判断资金压力整体不大，资金体感延续稳健，节后资金面判断重点之一在于 央行6个月期买断式逆回购的投放情况。 一、节前资金无忧 过去一周（2月2日-2月6日，下同）央行整体回笼流动性，资金体感宽松，其中值得注意有三点：（1）央行呵护跨年和特定时间点的资金面明显，整 体"缩短放长"，更有利于资金面的稳健性；（2）大型银行净融出持续抬升，除去央行呵护，或有"信贷走弱，存款流失并不大"等逻辑；（3）资金价格延 续回落，反映短期资金的DR001和反映中长期资金的Shibor 3M处于下行通道中。 展望未来一周，资金压力并不大，但重点需关注6个月期买断式的续作情况。 （1）存单视角，最近几周存单净融资连续负值收敛，直到本周转正，虽然有到期量少的原因，但叠加一级部分银行存单提价压力增加，本质上说明银行 资负处于再平衡过程中，当然当前还是负债端相对更好，短期资金比长期资金更乐观； （2）因此下周关注6M操作是重点，若 ...

区域市场数据印证了风险的严峻性。去年12月英国央行披露，对冲基金在英国金边债券回购市场的杠杆 操作规模攀升至近1000亿英镑（约1320亿美元）的历史高位，相关交易主要由美国管理，高度依赖频繁 再融资的对冲基金主导。英国央行彼时警示，若此类短期融资突然枯竭，对冲基金可能被迫集中抛售英 国国债，进而引发市场连锁反应。 目前，英国央行已于2025年9月提出加强英国国债回购市场监管的具体方案，美国证券交易委员会也已 出台硬性要求，规定到2027年年中，美国国债的大部分回购及现金交易必须实施集中清算，以此降低交 易对手方风险，维护市场稳定。英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利目前同时担任金融稳定理事会主席。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 金融稳定理事会（FSB）近日发布警告，明确规模达16万亿美元的政府债券支持回购协议市场正面临日 益突出的系统性脆弱性，对冲基金杠杆率攀升、市场对短期融资依赖度增强等问题突出，亟待全球监管 层面协同应对。 作为支撑全球债券市场流动性的核心板块，国债回购协议市场允许市场主体以主权债务为抵押进行短期 借款，是金融体系短期融资的重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a significant rise, particularly after the New Year, with trading volume and financing balance reaching historical highs, indicating potential bubble signs in certain sectors and stocks [1] Group 1: Market Policy and Impact - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges announced an increase in the financing transaction margin ratio from 80% to 100%, which aims to reduce market leverage and mitigate potential risks [1] - This policy serves as a signal from management to guide rational and stable investment, avoiding blind chasing of high prices and high-leverage operations [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Following the announcement, the market experienced a volatile correction, stabilizing after a rapid rise, with trading volume continuing to increase and potentially marking a peak volume for the current phase [1] - The internet services and software development sectors showed strong performance, while energy metals and major financial sectors like banking and insurance faced declines, suggesting limited short-term switching between high and low-performing sectors [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The short-term market is expected to remain strong with fluctuations, but the adjustment range is likely to be limited and of short duration, maintaining an upward trend in the medium term [1] - The likelihood of a reversal trend following the recent high and subsequent pullback is low, with the spring market expected to continue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the Shanghai Composite Index and the announcement from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to raise the margin requirement for financing transactions to a minimum of 100% indicates a significant regulatory shift aimed at stabilizing the market and reducing leverage risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new regulation requires investors to provide at least an equal amount of cash or securities as collateral for financing transactions, effectively raising the entry barrier for leveraged trading [3][4]. - This change is perceived as a measure to lower the overall market leverage, which has been a contributing factor to market volatility in recent years [3][4][7]. Group 2: Market Impact - In the short term, the new margin requirement may suppress active capital flow, leading to potential downward pressure on the index [4][8]. - Over the long term, a healthier leverage level and reduced speculative atmosphere could stabilize the market foundation, akin to reinforcing a building's foundation [4][10]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to reassess their investment habits, moving from speculative trading to value discovery, as reliance on financing to amplify positions will become more challenging and costly [6][7]. - The focus should shift towards understanding the core competitiveness, management quality, and industry position of companies, as these factors will determine long-term value [7][8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The timing of the new regulation amidst significant market fluctuations has heightened uncertainty, leading to emotional responses among investors [3][4]. - The adjustment serves as a strong signal for investors to maintain patience and focus on long-term strategies rather than short-term gains [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to determine the sustainability of the bull market [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately 6.8%, slightly up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second leverage indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently around 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool down the market [17][18]. Group 2: Trading Volume - A significant trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan is a crucial indicator for sustaining a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes surpassing this threshold for five consecutive days, suggesting potential for continued market momentum [20][21]. - The margin financing balance has reached 2.17 trillion yuan, nearing the peak of 2.27 trillion yuan observed in 2015, indicating a strong presence of leveraged funds in the market [23]. Group 3: Fundraising and New Accounts - The scale of newly issued public funds is another critical indicator. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the peak seen during the 2021 bull market, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. - The number of new trading accounts opened is also a vital metric. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, which is considerably lower than the peaks of previous bull markets, suggesting that the current market is still in its early stages [33][34]. Group 4: Market Stage Assessment - Based on the four indicators discussed, the A-share market is still in the initial phase of the bull market, with no signs of entering the acceleration or terminal phases yet. This suggests that investors can hold their positions but should be cautious about entering the market at current levels [37][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to determine the sustainability of the bull market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to monitor is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at 6.8%, slightly up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. A breach of 7.5% could signal potential market risks [14]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently about 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool down the market [17][18]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Fundraising - The third indicator is the overall trading volume, with a threshold of 20 trillion yuan typically indicating the potential for a sustained bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed this level for five consecutive days, suggesting a possibility for continued upward momentum [20][21]. - Additionally, the balance of margin financing has reached 2.17 trillion yuan, nearing the peak of 2.27 trillion yuan from 2015, indicating significant market activity [23]. Group 3: Fundraising and New Accounts - The fourth indicator is the scale of newly issued public funds. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is not as high as during the previous bull market in 2022, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is still relatively low [24][26]. - The number of new accounts opened is also a critical metric. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, significantly lower than the peak of 6.8 million in October of the previous year and the average of 3.6 million during the 2015 bull market [33][34]. This suggests that the current bull market is still in its early stages [37]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Based on the analysis of these indicators, the current bull market is still in the initial phase, and investors should be cautious about entering the market at this stage, especially around the 3800-3900 point range [39][42]. - Investors who have already entered the market should hold their positions, while those who have not should wait for more favorable conditions before investing [46][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to determine the sustainability of the bull market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at 6.8%, slightly up from 6.5% in late July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market. A breach of 7.5% could signal potential risks [12][13][14]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently at 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool down the market [17][18]. - The third indicator is market trading volume, with a sustained volume above 2 trillion yuan typically supporting a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed this threshold for five consecutive days, indicating potential for continued upward movement [20][21]. - The fourth indicator is the scale of newly issued public funds. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the peak seen in 2022, suggesting that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. Group 2: New Investor Activity - The fifth indicator is the number of new brokerage accounts opened, which serves as a gauge for retail investor participation. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, significantly lower than the peak of 6.8 million in October of the previous year, indicating that the current bull market is still in its early stages [33][34]. - The analysis concludes that as of late August or early September, the A-share market is still in the initial phase of the bull market, with no signs of entering the acceleration or terminal phases yet [37]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that investors, particularly retail investors, should consider holding onto their stocks while being cautious about entering the market at current levels, especially around the 3800-3900 point range, due to the risk of potential downturns [39][42]. - It emphasizes that this bull market is characterized by structural trends where stronger stocks outperform, and investors should be selective to avoid long-term losses [43][44]. Group 4: Educational Offerings - The article promotes a live course designed to help investors understand market dynamics and identify investment opportunities, offering insights into capital market trends and asset allocation strategies [50][56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to gauge the sustainability of the bull market [2][3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately 6.8%, slightly up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second leverage indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently around 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool down the market [17][18]. - The second key indicator is market trading volume, with a sustained volume above 2 trillion yuan typically supporting a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed this threshold for five consecutive days [20][21]. Group 2: Fundraising and New Accounts - The third indicator is the scale of newly issued public funds. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the peak seen during the 2021 bull market, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. - The fourth indicator is the number of new brokerage accounts opened. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, which is considerably lower than the peak of 6.8 million in October last year and the average of 3.6 million during the 2015 bull market [33][34]. Group 3: Market Stage Assessment - Based on the four indicators, the current bull market is still in its initial stage, with no signs of entering the acceleration phase or nearing the end phase. This suggests that investors can hold onto their stocks for now [36][37]. - The article advises caution for new investors considering entering the market at the current index levels, as significant downturns could lead to substantial losses [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to gauge the sustainability of the bull market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately 6.8%, up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently about 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool down the market [17][18]. Group 2: Trading Volume - A significant trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan is a crucial indicator for sustaining a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes surpassing this threshold for five consecutive days, suggesting potential for continued market momentum [20][21]. - The margin financing balance has reached 2.17 trillion yuan, nearing the peak of 2.27 trillion yuan observed in 2015, indicating a strong presence of leveraged funds in the market [23]. Group 3: Fundraising and New Accounts - The scale of newly issued public funds is another important indicator. In the first three weeks of August, public funds raised an average of 11 billion yuan weekly, which is significantly lower than the fundraising levels during the 2021 bull market, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a peak [24][26]. - The number of new brokerage accounts opened is also a key metric. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, which is considerably lower than the peaks seen in previous bull markets, suggesting that the current market is still in its early stages [33][34]. Group 4: Market Stage Assessment - Based on the four indicators discussed, the current A-share market is still in the initial phase of the bull market, with no signs of entering the acceleration or terminal phases yet [37]. - Investors are advised to hold onto their stocks while being cautious about entering the market at this stage, especially given the potential for significant market corrections [39][42].