周度变化 64 124 124 -8 -5 34 106 40135 26728 3000 -0.2 130 170 230 230 124 2025 -200 -300 s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | 42 | -68 | -52 | 17 | -4 | -21 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 12/5 | 12/30 | 12/31 | 1/5 | 1/6 | MIVULLA HOLORIA FAE 日度变化 | 間 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 92 | -118 | -82 | -33 | 6 | 39 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | -18 | -138 | -122 | -63 | -14 | 49 | | | | 01-03 | -25 | -43 | -57 | -43 | -51 | -8 | | | | 02-03 | -14 | -7 | -14 | -5 | -12 | -7 | | | | 03-06 | -41 | - ...

沥青早报 | | | | | | | | MIZULU POLOGIAL EVE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 12/4 | 12/29 | 12/30 | 12/31 | 1/5 | 日度变化 | 間 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) 01-03 | 48 -28 | -68 -35 | -68 -43 | -52 -57 | 17 -43 | રવ 14 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 88 | -118 | -118 | -82 | -33 | 49 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | -2 | -178 | -138 | -122 | -63 | ਦੇਰੇ | | | 基差&月差 | | | | | | | | | | | 02-03 | -17 | -4 | -7 | -14 | - R | g | | | | 03-06 | -37 | -25 | -24 | -23 | 16 | 39 | | | | BU主力合约(02) | 2952 | 3008 | 3038 | ...

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, a total of 267 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 427.70 billion, representing a week-on-week increase of 15.42% [4] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 117 issues with a scale of 219.26 billion, a week-on-week increase of 34.26%, making up 51.26% of the total issuance [4] - City investment bonds totaled 110 issues with a scale of 71.36 billion, a week-on-week decrease of 18.87%, representing 16.69% of the total issuance [4] - Financial bonds had 40 issues with a scale of 137.08 billion, a week-on-week increase of 14.92%, accounting for 32.05% of the total issuance [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.74 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.36 years, city investment bonds 3.25 years, and financial bonds 2.35 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.26%, with industrial bonds at 2.12%, city investment bonds at 2.41%, and financial bonds at 2.23% [4] Group 2: Secondary Market - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1782.75 billion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 28.47% [7] - The top three categories by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes, with commercial bank bonds at 630.89 billion (up 38.88%), corporate bonds at 521.31 billion (up 15.93%), and medium-term notes at 347.64 billion (up 40.63%) [7] - In terms of credit spreads, the largest increase for AAA-rated industries was in pharmaceuticals, up 5.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in real estate, down 1.3 basis points [6] - For AA+ rated industries, the largest increase was in household appliances, up 6.4 basis points, and the largest decrease was in textiles and apparel, down 9.8 basis points [6] - The AAA-rated credit spread increased the most in Gansu, up 8.7 basis points, while the largest decrease was in Jilin, down 2.9 basis points [6]

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/23 | | 指标 | 11/20 | 12/16 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 12/22 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | 2 | 16 | -42 | | -2915 | -2916 | -2931 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 42 | 86 | -25 | -9 | -2995 | -2986 | -3081 | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | 22 | 36 | -132 | -109 | -2995 | -2886 | -3031 | | | 01-03 | -42 | -25 | -29 | -27 | -30 | -3 | -5 | | | 02-03 | -27 | -22 | -17 | -15 | -12 | 3 | 10 | | | 03-06 | -31 | -44 | -20 | -24 | -23 | 7 | 21 | | 载请 | BU主力合约(02) | 3058 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the credit spreads of the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared to last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings widened to varying degrees. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of those with a maturity over 10 years compressed slightly by 1BP, while the spreads of other maturities widened by 3BP. For industrial bonds, most of the industrial credit spreads continued to widen, with the short - end widening more significantly than the long - end. For bank capital bonds, the short - end spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 1 year widened slightly, while the long - end spreads over 10 years compressed slightly [3][4][30]. - In 2026, for urban investment bonds, short - duration (within 2Y) sinking urban investment bonds can be used as a base position, and high - quality urban investment entities with a moderately extended duration (3 - 5Y) can be selected. For industrial bonds, high - quality central and state - owned enterprise industrial bonds can be used as a base position with an extended duration, and attention should be paid to industries with marginal improvements. For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, trading opportunities of those with good liquidity (preferably 3 - 5Y AAA -) should be grasped, and attention should be paid to high - quality city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in economically developed areas and areas with advanced debt resolution progress [5][7][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - On December 19th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice allowing eligible overseas institutional investors to conduct bond repurchase business on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, providing them with standardized liquidity management tools [11]. - On December 15th, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into Postal Savings Bank of China for suspected violations in the underwriting and issuance of debt financing instruments [12]. - On December 15th, Guizhou Rural Commercial United Bank Co., Ltd. was approved to open. It acquired the shares of 16 rural commercial banks and 5 rural credit cooperatives, with an increased registered capital of 10.458 billion yuan and new shareholders including the Guizhou Provincial Department of Finance and China Kweichow Moutai Group Co., Ltd. [13]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 116.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.1 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 365.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 99.1 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 249.3 billion yuan, an increase of 29 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 20.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27 billion yuan compared to last week [14]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 21.3 billion yuan, an increase of 500 million yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 70.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.7 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 24 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.9 billion yuan [15]. 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - This week, the issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and urban investment bonds were adjusted to over 2.8%, while the average issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings and types were below 2.8%. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and urban investment bonds increased by 45BP and 27BP respectively compared to last week, and the issuance rate of AA + financial bonds increased by 58BP [17]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Transaction Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 44.3 billion yuan compared to last week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 259.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.7 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 367.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 627.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 25.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1 billion yuan [24]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds showed a mixed trend compared to last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.66%, a decrease of 0.1 pct; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.89%, an increase of 0.06 pct; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 4.05%, a decrease of 0.29 pct; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.67%, an increase of 0.03 pct [24]. 3.3.2 Yield - This week, the yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated within 3BP compared to last week. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1 year decreased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; the yields of AA and AAA + credit bonds with a 5 - year maturity increased by 2BP and 1BP respectively, while the yield of AAA - credit bonds decreased by 1BP; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds with a maturity over 10 years decreased by 1BP, 1BP, and less than 1BP respectively [25]. 3.3.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, the credit spreads of the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly by 14BP compared to last week, while the spreads of other industries and ratings widened to varying degrees. For example, the credit spreads of the AA + leisure service industry widened by 20BP, and the spreads of the AA + media and light manufacturing industries widened by 9BP [30]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: By maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with a maturity over 10 years compressed slightly by 1BP, while the spreads of other maturities widened by 3BP. By region, the top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Yunnan, Jilin, Shandong, and Sichuan; for AA + urban investment bonds, they were Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Yunnan; for AAA urban investment bonds, they were Liaoning, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Jilin, and Tianjin [32][34]. - **Industrial Bonds**: Most of the industrial credit spreads continued to widen, with the short - end widening more significantly than the long - end. For example, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA private industrial bonds widened by 4BP, 4BP, and 7BP respectively compared to last week; the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA private industrial bonds widened by 2BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively [36]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The short - end spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 1 year widened slightly, while the long - end spreads over 10 years compressed slightly. For example, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds widened by 4BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively compared to last week, and the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds compressed by 3BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively [39]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Negative News - This week, the implied ratings of bonds issued by five issuers, including Nanjing Zijin Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and Beijing Tianheng Yuanxin Capital Investment Management Co., Ltd., were downgraded. The "H20 Tianying 3" issued by Wuhan Tianying Investment Group Co., Ltd. and the "Hongda Debenture" issued by Hongda Xingye Co., Ltd. defaulted in essence [4][40]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, for urban investment bonds, short - duration (within 2Y) sinking urban investment bonds can be used as a base position to obtain stable coupon income, and high - quality urban investment entities with a moderately extended duration (3 - 5Y) can be selected to increase portfolio returns. For industrial bonds, high - quality central and state - owned enterprise industrial bonds can be used as a base position with an extended duration to obtain stable coupon income, and attention should be paid to industries with marginal improvements. For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, trading opportunities of those with good liquidity (preferably 3 - 5Y AAA -) should be grasped, and attention should be paid to high - quality city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in economically developed areas and areas with advanced debt resolution progress [44].

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | WIZUT OFFSTORING CULT . | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 11/11 | 12/5 | 12/9 | 12/10 | 12/11 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -30 | 42 | -43 | -40 | -60 | -20 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 100 | 92 | 97 | 100 | 20 | -80 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | 80 | -18 | 17 | 20 | 0 | -20 | | | | 01-03 | -40 | -25 | -35 | -36 | -28 | 8 | | | | 02-03 | -26 | -14 | -20 | -18 | -13 | 5 | | | | 03-06 | -30 | -41 | -42 | -42 | -39 | 3 | | | | BU主力合约(02) | 3050 | 2948 | 294 ...

成交量缩成渣了，今天已经15,600亿了，后面就需要判断这个地量的标准了，等再放量才能确定这里是 不是地量。和讯投顾王可心表示，今天这个盘面权重走的不好，银行股不出力，大消费继续寻底儿，就 这种情况下指数都扛住了，特别是深圳跟创业板，基本上跟咱们预期的一致，有在这里横住的迹象。那 么后面如果缩量在这里横着不下去，成交量就能慢慢放出来。12月后面还有三件事都需要观察，对面美 联储11号的议息会议，咱们自己的重要会议等这些不确定性都过去。指数如果还能扛在这，那就是好事 了。 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 船舶医药行业领涨 A 股震荡整固 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：通信半导体领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2025-12-01 《市场分析：汽车锂电行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2025-12-01 周二（12 月 02 日）A 股市场低开低走、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 3898 点附近获得支撑，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中船舶制造、医药商业、消费电子以及煤炭等行业表现较 好；贵金属、能源金属、生物制品以及软件开发等行业表现较弱， 沪指全天基本呈现小幅整理的运行特征。创业板市场周二震荡回 落，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周二 A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡回 落，盘中沪指在 3898 点附近获得支撑，午后股指维持震荡，盘中船 舶制造、医药商业、消费电子以及煤炭等行业表现较好；贵金属、 能源金属、生物制品以及软件开发等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本 呈现小幅整理的运行特征。当前上证综指与创业板指数的平均市盈 率分别为 16 ...

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,808 yuan/ton to 3,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 2.0%, while the spot price in East China remained stable at 3,845 yuan/ton The basis (spot minus futures) was -39 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper discount and an expanded premium of the futures market relative to the spot, possibly driven by the capital side [2]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 353,300 lots to 317,468 lots, a decrease of 35,832 lots or 10.14%, suggesting that some long or short positions were closed The trading volume increased significantly from 164,315 lots to 282,100 lots, an increase of 117,785 lots or 71.68%, indicating increased market trading activity, but the decrease in open interest implies that short - term speculative behavior is dominant [2]. *** Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the oil - based operating rate at 76.23% and the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% However, the profit structure was divided The oil - based profit (such as ethylene oxidation method) generally deteriorated, for example, the profit of ethylene - SHELL oxidation method decreased from - 799 yuan/ton to - 889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan, indicating rising crude oil cost pressure The coal - based profit improved from 112.46 yuan/ton to 187.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan, indicating that the decrease in coal cost supported coal - based production capacity [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no change, reflecting stable terminal demand without significant improvement or deterioration The high load of the polyester sector supported ethylene glycol consumption, but the low loom load indicated weak terminal textile demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 661,000 tons to 732,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons or 10.74% The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased from 215,000 tons to 275,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 27.91%, indicating obvious inventory accumulation, increased port arrivals or insufficient shipments, and increased inventory pressure [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upside limited by inventory pressure and the deterioration of oil - based profits On the supply side, the operating rate is stable but the profit is divided, with rising crude oil costs suppressing oil - based production capacity and falling coal costs benefiting coal - based production On the demand side, the high load of polyester provides support, but the low loom load and continuous inventory accumulation highlight the pressure of loose supply - demand The arrival of foreign goods is not mentioned to have changed, but the inventory increase implies potential import pressure Overall, the short - term rise of futures is driven by active trading, but the high inventory and stable demand in the fundamentals will limit the upside space, and the price may fluctuate in the bottom range [3].

Primary Market - In the week from November 10 to November 14, 2025, a total of 330 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 455.379 billion yuan, an increase of 25.31% week-on-week [4] - The issuance scale of industrial bonds was 169.680 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.09%, accounting for 37.26% of the total credit bond issuance [4] - City investment bonds issued totaled 81.729 billion yuan, down 19.25%, representing 17.95% of the total [4] - Financial bonds saw an issuance of 203.970 billion yuan, an increase of 139.20%, making up 44.79% of the total [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.75 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.25 years, city investment bonds 3.51 years, and financial bonds 2.13 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.12%, with industrial bonds at 2.06%, city investment bonds at 2.26%, and financial bonds at 1.94% [4] - Two credit bonds were canceled during the week [4] Secondary Market - In terms of credit spreads, the largest increase for AAA-rated industries was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, which rose by 6.5 basis points, while the largest decrease was in steel, down by 3.5 basis points [5] - For AA+ rated industries, the largest increase was in electronics, up by 1.4 basis points, and the largest decrease was in automobiles, down by 16.6 basis points [5] - The largest increase in AA-rated industries was in transportation, up by 0.9 basis points, while the largest decrease was in mining, down by 3.9 basis points [5] - For city investment bonds, the largest increase in AAA-rated credit spreads was in Zhejiang, up by 3 basis points, and the largest decrease was in Yunnan, down by 10.2 basis points [5] - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1219.783 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.53% week-on-week [6] - The top three types of credit bonds by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes [6] - Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 375.608 billion yuan, an increase of 3.93%, accounting for 30.79% of the total [6] - Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 414.081 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.86%, representing 33.95% of the total [6] - Medium-term notes had a trading volume of 243.078 billion yuan, down by 16.01%, accounting for 19.93% of the total [6]