点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 本周（2025.12.08-2025.12.12，下同）A股震荡上行，市场量能有所提振。截至周五（2025.12.12，下 同），主要宽基指数量能择时指标均转为看多信号。沪深300、中证500指数时序波动率、横截面波动率均 有提升，Alpha环境好转。资金面方面，融资增加额环比提升，资金交易情绪积极。 12月中央经济工作会议进一步提振市场信心，资金面叠加情绪指标改善下，市场或进一步震荡上行。风格 方面，本周市场大市值风格显著、基本面因子表现相对占优，市场或逐步实现资金面驱动向基本面驱动的 过渡。中长线持续看好"红利+科技"配置主线。 本周上证综指下跌0.34%，上证50下跌0.25%，沪深300下跌0.08%，中证500上涨1.01%， ...

Market Overview - On the last trading day of September, the three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index unchanged [1] - Market hotspots were active, with the non-ferrous metals and storage chip sectors leading in gains, while the liquor and large financial sectors experienced declines [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Individual Stocks - The stock with the highest trading volume was Xinyi Technology, with a turnover of 18.595 billion yuan, despite a decline of 5.80% [2] - Other notable stocks by trading volume included Zhongji Xuchuang (16.248 billion yuan), Dongfang Caifu (15.563 billion yuan), and Yangguang Electric (15.197 billion yuan) [2] - The month saw a fluctuating upward trend, with all three major indices closing higher on a monthly basis; the ChiNext Index rose over 12%, reaching a three-year high, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased over 11%, marking a nearly four-year high [2] Sector Performance - In the chip industry, stocks such as Demingli saw their prices double, while companies like SMIC, Huahong, and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech reached historical highs [3] - In the robotics sector, Shoukai Co. achieved 11 consecutive trading days of gains [3] - In the energy storage sector, both Ningde Times and Yangguang Electric set new historical highs, with Ningde Times' total market capitalization surpassing that of Kweichow Moutai in mid-month [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the market is experiencing a downward trend, with the CSI A500 index down by 2.5%, the CSI A100 index down by 2.4%, and the CSI A50 index down by 1.6% [1] - According to Wind data, the A500 ETF managed by E Fund (159361) has seen a net inflow of 800 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, ranking first among similar products [1] -招商证券 forecasts that the market is likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in September, although the slope of this trend may be relatively slower compared to August [1]

Group 1 - The market exhibited a clear phase characteristic this week, with indices fluctuating around the 3360-3390 range in the first half, showing frequent shifts between bulls and bears but lacking continuity [1] - A key breakthrough occurred on Thursday, with the index confirming support at 3384 and entering a slow upward trend, reaching a high of 3423 at the close [1] - The current upward movement, although slow, indicates strengthening momentum, shifting the overall market rhythm from previous volatility to a more bullish slow rise [1] Group 2 - Maintaining the slow upward trend relies on holding key support levels, with the 3415-3410 area acting as a critical dividing line for bulls and bears [3] - If this support area is maintained, the market may continue to rise, with the first resistance level to watch at around 3465; failure to break this could lead to short positions [3] - Conversely, if the 3410 support is lost, there may be a risk of weakening upward momentum, potentially leading the market back into a wide fluctuation between 3360-3380 [3]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 市场观点纷繁芜杂，光大研究荟萃本周重点报告，涵盖总量、行业、公司研究，为您筛选有价值的 声音。 每周六早8点，"研选"助您快速厘清投资"点线面"！ 总量研究 牛市四阶段演绎特征——解密牛市系列之二 分析师：郭磊,张宇生 / / 文中报告节选自光大证券研究所已公开发布研究报告，具体报告内容及相关风险 提示等详见完整版报告。 当前市场或已进入震荡上行阶段，但当前市场走势较为强势，并未在震荡上行 阶段开启后的第6 0~8 0个交易日里出现"窄幅震荡"的走势。不过，当前市场或 正在逐步形成阶段性高点，后续需关注阶段性高点的成型，以及后续市场能否 突 破 该 阶 段 性 高 点 。 若 上 证 指 数 能 有 效 突 破 4 月 8 日 以 来 ...

Group 1 - The A500 Index (000510) has shown a slight increase of 0.17% as of June 25, 2025, with notable gainers including Zhongbing Hongjian (000519) up 10.02% and Feili Hua (300395) up 8.95% [1] - The A500 ETF Fund (512050) has also increased by 0.11%, marking its third consecutive rise, with a trading volume of 1.678 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 10.22% [1] - The A500 ETF Fund has seen a net inflow of 886 million yuan over the past three days, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2 - The A500 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of the 500 most representative listed companies across various industries, selected based on market capitalization and liquidity [2] - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 Index account for 21.21% of the index, with Guizhou Moutai (600519) being the largest at 4.28% [2][4] Group 3 - The market outlook for July suggests a slight upward trend, supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at achieving growth targets, despite potential outflows of overseas funds due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] - Key sectors to watch include technology (semiconductors, components, gaming), long-term investment-related dividend sectors (banks, insurance), and industries benefiting from geopolitical conflicts (military, refining, and trade) [1]