下一步，谁会先突破4000？ 嗯？你说谁？ A股，又或者，黄金。 在经历了此前接近五个月的震荡波折之后，黄金价格在九月底再次迎来历史新高。距离突破 4000 的整数关口，和A股一样，看起来似乎只是想不想，而 不是能不能的问题了。 这个曾经在 2022 年初还被调侃为不会生息的老古董资产，如今却又俨然成为全球资本市场的硬通货宝藏。A股靠三根阳线就能改变大众的情绪，更别说 黄金已经连续上涨三年多，足以彻底颠覆群众的认知。 在亢奋的情绪之下，更值得我们普通投资者做的，依然是尝试再次复盘，过去三年，世界和黄金究竟发生了什么？ 我们不是一睁眼就从 2022 年穿越到了现在，而是亲自一步一步走到了此刻。 一、2022 年：埋下所有的伏笔 2022 年初，黄金价格，1820 美元。在当年 3 月，黄金最高突破 2000 美元。 而在 10 月，黄金最低接近跌破 1600 美元。仅仅从价格变化来看，黄金似乎无事发生，但回到当时，却可能是这个世界，巨大裂缝终于被撕开的肇始。 2022 年 2 月，俄乌冲突爆发。美国尝试冻结俄罗斯外汇储备，至此埋下了全球央行和投资者对于美元信用产生怀疑的关键伏笔。这个事件，对于主要国 家来说，无 ...

Group 1: Investment Trends in China - Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, is bullish on China, indicating a significant influx of global funds into Chinese assets [1][2] - Goldman Sachs reported that from March 27 to April 23, global stock funds saw a net inflow of $68.079 billion, with emerging markets receiving $27.14 billion, 90% of which flowed into China [2] - Chinese stock funds specifically received a net inflow of $24.686 billion, surpassing other emerging markets like South Korea, India, and Brazil [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Left believes that despite ongoing trade tensions, China has shown resilience, with low price-to-earnings ratios indicating that the market is undervalued [2][3] - Historical data shows that during previous trade conflicts, such as the first U.S.-China trade war, Left also favored investing in China, citing the market's potential for recovery [2][3] Group 3: Interest Rate Trends and Banking Sector - Recent adjustments in deposit rates by small and medium-sized banks indicate a shift towards a low-interest-rate environment, with over 30 banks reducing rates, particularly for three and five-year products [5][6] - The average interest rates for three and five-year deposits have fallen to 2.042% and 1.883%, respectively, highlighting a growing disparity in deposit rates [5] Group 4: Asset Allocation and Investment Shifts - As deposit rates decline, there is a noticeable trend of funds moving from traditional savings to wealth management products, with a 15% growth in wealth management scale in the first quarter [7][8] - The bond market has faced challenges, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.6% to 1.9%, leading to losses for banks and insurance companies heavily invested in bonds [8] Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The Chinese gold market is experiencing significant growth, with domestic gold ETF holdings increasing by 23.47 tons in Q1 2025, a 327.73% year-on-year rise [10][14] - High demand for gold is reflected in the net inflow of 158.36 billion yuan into the SEG gold index, indicating a strong preference for gold investments amid market volatility [10][14] Group 6: Future Economic Predictions - Analysts suggest that the current commodity bull market may be at the beginning stages, driven by factors such as de-globalization and a potential dollar crisis [17] - The concept of a new Bretton Woods III system is emerging, which could reshape global asset dynamics, emphasizing commodities like gold as safe-haven assets [17]