Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Instant Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The intense competition in China's instant delivery sector is ongoing, with platforms facing increased pressure on profit margins due to market share fluctuations [1] - The instant market has experienced a compound annual growth rate of over 20% since 2020, currently accounting for approximately 6% of China's retail sector [1] - The target customer base consists of consumers who wish to receive products within an hour, primarily focusing on food and "instant retail" [1] Key Players and Strategies - **Alibaba Group Holding Limited**: Aims to enhance its position as the largest one-stop shopping platform to expand its consumer base and transaction volume [1] - **Meituan**: Focused on defending its food delivery business while concentrating on instant demand product delivery [1] - **JD.com**: Seeks to highlight its service advantages to attract a broad consumer and merchant base [1] Market Dynamics - Meituan is expected to maintain over half of the order share by the end of 2026, down from 67% at the end of 2024, as it works to reclaim market share lost to competitors [6] - Seasonal factors, such as reduced food delivery demand in winter, are anticipated to lead to decreased subsidies across platforms [6] - The overall order volume is expected to decline in 2026 compared to 2025, with a significant portion of growth coming from ready-to-drink beverages and snacks [6] Growth in Instant Retail - Instant retail is projected to grow rapidly, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 15% by 2030, potentially reaching around 2 trillion RMB [8] - Instant retail's scale may be about 80% of food delivery by 2030, up from just half in 2024 [8] - Meituan holds approximately 50% market share in instant retail, benefiting from a larger merchant network and stronger delivery infrastructure [9] Profitability Outlook - The profit margins for food delivery are expected to decline from nearly 20% in 2024 to a stable range of 10%-15% by 2027 [10] - Instant retail is anticipated to have profit margins potentially double those of food delivery due to higher order values and similar cost structures [10] - The competitive landscape is likely to stabilize over the next 12 months, with a gradual recovery in Meituan's EBITDA expected to reach 70-80% of 2024 levels by 2026 [11] Competitive Strategies - JD.com is shifting its strategy from aggressive market share acquisition to retaining new customers and directing traffic to its main platform [12] - Alibaba is expected to continue aggressive spending to attract users and compete with Meituan and JD.com, aiming to solidify its position as the largest one-stop platform [13] Conclusion - The instant delivery market in China is characterized by fierce competition, evolving strategies among key players, and a shifting focus towards instant retail, which presents both opportunities and challenges for profitability and market share [1][6][10][12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][37]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the recent financial performance of major players in the food delivery sector, including Meituan, JD Group, Alibaba, and Bawang Chaji, highlighting the impact of the ongoing delivery battle on their operations and profitability [1][2][3]. - It emphasizes that the low-frequency, low-ticket order subsidies are the primary reason for the significant losses in the instant retail business, which includes food delivery [2][19]. - The report suggests that the platforms are likely to return to a more rational subsidy strategy, focusing on high-ticket orders to improve unit economics [2][19]. Summary by Sections Meituan - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenues of 954.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but faced an adjusted net loss of 160.1 billion yuan, shifting from profit to loss [1][6]. - The core local business revenue was 674.5 billion yuan, down 2.8%, with an operating loss of 140.7 billion yuan [8][10]. - The food delivery segment is expected to see a 15% increase in order volume, but a 13% decline in revenue due to a decrease in average order value (AOV) and lower monetization rates [8][10]. JD Group and Alibaba - JD Group's Q3 2025 new business losses reached 157 billion yuan, while Alibaba's instant retail business incurred losses of approximately 361 billion yuan, with a per-order loss of about 5.3 yuan [2][17]. - Both companies are experiencing significant pressure on their overall performance due to the losses in their instant retail segments [2][19]. Bawang Chaji - Bawang Chaji reported a revenue of 32.08 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 9.4%, with an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, down 22.2% [3][21]. - The company has chosen a cautious approach to the delivery battle, avoiding price wars to maintain brand integrity and product strategy [3][32]. - The report notes that Bawang Chaji's same-store GMV declined by 27.9% in the Greater China region, reflecting the competitive pressures in the market [21][32]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading restaurant brands that are likely to benefit from increased subsidy efforts and are in a strong operational season, such as Guoquan, Haidilao, Yum China, and Xiaocaiyuan [3][37]. - It also highlights the potential of tea brands like Guming and Mixue Group, which are actively expanding their product offerings and private traffic strategies [3][37].