外卖大战

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招商证券:双节期间餐饮链环比改善 继续推荐高景气赛道
智通财经网· 2025-10-10 03:45
招商证券发布研报称,7-8月大众品整体需求相对平淡,调味品等板块受餐饮需求弱复苏拖累。进入9月 看需求随餐饮环比复苏有所改善,双节期间消费、出行相对平稳,餐饮景气度有所提升。白酒双节动销 符合预期,高端酒与宴席场景表现较好于此前预期。零食、饮料仍保持较高景气度,调味品、速冻等板 块实际动销有所改善,啤酒表现平淡,乳制品动销仍承压。继续推荐高景气赛道,同时考虑到餐饮旺季 逐步到来,以及外卖大战、禁酒令等影响逐步消化,建议关注餐饮链板块及公司的业绩逐步改善节奏。 具体跟踪如下 白酒:双节动销符合预期,高端酒与宴席场景表现较好于此前预期。25年中秋国庆节后反馈白酒总体销 售同比下滑约20%,与节前预期基本一致。展望后续,Q4继续关注供给侧收缩信号及需求边际修复速 率。 调味品:9月动销改善,餐饮有所复苏。7-8月受整体需求平淡叠加餐饮弱复苏影响,调味品板块表现较 弱。9月餐饮逐步复苏,实际动销环比改善,进入双节备货阶段库存同比略有提升。中秋国庆期间整体 动销同比去年有所提升,其中餐饮需求复苏对板块有所拉动。 乳制品:液奶需求平淡,双节动销承压。7-8月伊利液奶下滑低个位数。9月预计伊利液奶仍下滑低个位 数。双节渠道 ...
广告行业跟踪(12):7月户外广告整体下滑,网站行业投放大幅增加
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 14:43
请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨媒体Ⅱ [Table_Title] 广告行业跟踪(12):7 月户外广告整体下滑, 网站行业投放大幅增加 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 根据中天盈信(CODC)数据,2025 年 7 月户外广告投放总额为 224.67 亿元,同比减少 4%, 环比减少 5%,剔除范围和刊例增长的净值同比减少 10%,其中户外视频媒体广告投放总额为 153.61 亿元,同比减少 7%。分渠道来看,楼宇液晶媒体受媒体收集周期变化影响,7 月广告 刊例花费同比减少 12%、环比减少 17%;电子屏媒体广告刊例花费同比增长 14%、环比增长 18%。分行业来看,受外卖大战和暑期效应影响,网站、饮料和娱乐休闲行业成为 7 月户外视 频媒体投放主力军。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高超 朱子愉 SAC:S0490516080001 SFC:BUX177 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 广告行业跟踪(2] 12):7 月户外广告整体下滑, 网站行业投放大幅增加 [Table_Summ ...
淘宝闪购最大的对手是双11
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-25 03:59
9月24日,淘宝官宣双11定档——10月15日开启预售,持续至11月14日结束,今年双11现货现卖,无需凑单,淘宝电商全年最大的战役打响,标志着淘宝 正式在电商和外卖双领域同时启动了年度大战。在此之前,抖音电商已于9月8日开启双11招商,比2024年提早了整整一个月,快手电商10月7日开启预 售,当史上最长双11遭遇外卖大战,淘宝闪购最大的对手出现了。 淘宝闪购最大的对手是双11 当外卖撞上史上最长双11,外卖遇到了最大的竞争对手——双11。 电商是阿里的基本盘,2025财年,淘天贡献了集团近5成的营收和113%的净利润,不仅覆盖了自身利润,还对集团其他发展期业务进行了反哺。而且电商 这一仗更难打,蒋凡必须要保证在电商份额的稳步上升,双11是蒋凡要拿下的必胜之战,但它的对手同样也这么想。 电商竞争可太剧烈了,2024年淘天集团、拼多多、京东,抖音的GMV分别为8万亿、5.2万亿、4.5万亿、3.34万亿,淘天电商份额占比四成,竞对来势汹 汹,阿里必须要稳住行业份额。可喜的是,在蒋凡重掌淘天后,服饰、美妆、运动等核心行业的商家看到了店铺业绩的快速增长。 双11的对淘天的意义不是一个简单的大促,而且一座丰碑,是证 ...
破内卷 外卖赛道格局重塑
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-09-24 17:26
本报记者 郭冀川 韩昱 9月24日,国家市场监督管理总局(以下简称"市场监管总局")起草的《外卖平台服务管理基本要求(征求意见稿)》 (以下简称《基本要求》),正式面向社会公开征求意见。这一举措的出台,恰与此前外卖行业激烈的市场竞争形成鲜明呼 应。 今年盛夏,电商头部企业掀起的"外卖三国杀"席卷市场,各类补贴活动层出不穷,从大额满减到低价秒杀,消费者一度沉 浸在"几块钱吃一顿饭"的消费狂欢中。这场硝烟弥漫的商业大战,不仅是互联网行业流量见顶后,巨头们在存量市场展开的激 烈厮杀,更标志着发展多年的外卖赛道,正迎来一场关乎商业模式与行业生态的深刻"翻新"。 然而,随着竞争的持续升温,激烈的商业鏖战也让行业逐渐清醒,过度内卷毫无价值,无序的低价竞争最终只会导致企业 利润承压、服务质量下滑的局面。如今,这一共识正在行业内逐步形成。 中国消费经济学会副理事长、北京工商大学商业经济研究所所长洪涛在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,在外卖行业, 单一的低价竞争已经进入死胡同。 可以说,上半年是外卖大战竞争最为激烈的时刻,从企业营收情况来看,以新茶饮集团为代表的头部阵营企业业绩提升十 分明显。多家新茶饮上市公司公布的2025年 ...
让万千商家与平台一起跑更远
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-23 22:40
9月19日上午8点,iPhone 17系列正式开售。郑州一位消费者从淘宝闪购下单星宇橙色新机,到签收只 用了11分钟。什么概念?比他自己换衣服、出门、挤进商场还要快! 在北京,也有人体验了一把飞速收货。早在预售期,这位消费者就通过美团闪购订了一台白色iPhone 17。现货开售后,才等了十来分钟,骑手就已经送货上门,还享受了500元国补优惠。 以"11分钟送达iPhone"为标志,即时零售市场迎来全面爆发:今年以来,外卖市场日订单从1亿直奔2 亿,峰值接近3亿,月活用户突破5.51亿,同比增长6%。行业增速嗖嗖的,跑得比外卖员的小电驴还 猛。 服务质量也在持续提升。美团新增"现制现炒"信息展示栏,方便消费者选择;淘宝、美团均上线了全新 的会员体系,让用户消费有更多权益回报。 从更宏观的视角看,即时零售的快速渗透,正在促使品牌重新思考渠道策略,一批便利店、商超、3C 专卖店加速拥抱即时零售。"11分钟送达iPhone"可能很快不再是新闻,而是常态。 然而,在享受极致效率的同时,我们也需关注即时零售的"双刃剑"效应。各大平台重金押注的这场硬 仗,短短几个月就烧掉了数百亿元。资本加持下,供应链效率飞起,社会运转加速 ...
佳禾食品上半年增收降利,低毛利率产品挤压盈利空间
凤凰网财经· 2025-09-20 12:37
Core Viewpoint - Jiahe Foods (605300.SZ), known as the "first stock of powdered oil," reported a mixed performance in its 2025 semi-annual report, with revenue of 1.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, while net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 82.1% to 12.43 million yuan due to rising raw material costs and increased sales expenses related to coffee business expansion and C-end channel development [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in net profit, with the core subsidiary Nantong Jiazhiwei's net profit dropping approximately 75.4% to 7.8995 million yuan, attributed to rising costs of core raw materials like palm kernel oil and coconut oil [5]. - Operating cash flow turned negative, with a net cash flow from operating activities dropping 142.3% to -31.02 million yuan, and prepayments surged 88.58% to 82.8488 million yuan [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - The demand for powdered oil is declining as consumer health awareness increases, leading some new tea brands to stop using powdered oil, which directly impacts Jiahe Foods' sales [3]. - Despite the growth in orders from tea drink customers during the recent delivery wars, the company noted that these customers primarily ordered lower-priced products, resulting in increased revenue without corresponding profit [4]. Group 3: Coffee Business Development - Jiahe Foods is actively expanding its coffee business, achieving revenue of 278 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.58%, with a significant growth of 66.8% to 190 million yuan in the first half of the year [7]. - The company is focusing on both B-end and C-end channels, with e-commerce revenue reaching 47.6657 million yuan, up 114.81% year-on-year [7][8]. Group 4: Cost and Profitability Issues - The company's marketing expenses increased significantly, with sales expenses for 2024 and the first half of the year rising 75.14% and 28.16% respectively, driven by higher costs associated with online platform services [8]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 5.46 percentage points to 12.39% in the first half of 2025, influenced by a higher proportion of low-margin products in the product mix [9].
假如星巴克和瑞幸门店相距100米,哪个店更赚钱?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-16 09:04
Group 1 - The article discusses the competitive landscape between Luckin Coffee and Starbucks in China, questioning whether they will be evenly matched or if one will dominate the other [1] - It highlights the impact of the delivery battle on various brands, suggesting that the surge in demand may challenge Starbucks' ability to sustain its market position in China [1] - A survey was conducted to gain insights into the situation, indicating a need for deeper analysis of the competitive dynamics between these two companies [1] Group 2 - The article raises concerns about Starbucks' future in the Chinese market amidst increasing competition from local brands like Luckin Coffee [1] - It emphasizes the significance of the delivery service in shaping consumer preferences and brand performance in the coffee industry [1] - The competitive strategies employed by both companies are likely to influence their market share and profitability moving forward [1]
沪上阿姨(02589):公司事件点评报告:业绩稳健增长,门店网络进一步加密
Huaxin Securities· 2025-09-15 15:06
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [9]. Core Insights - The company benefits from a high-growth industry, achieving steady revenue growth with a total revenue of 1.818 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a 10% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 21% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company has successfully expanded its store network, with a total of 9,436 stores as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 999 stores from the beginning of the year, and a 12% increase year-on-year [8]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from industry growth, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 4.76, 5.63, and 6.48 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 26, 22, and 19 times [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.43%, while the net profit margin rose by 1 percentage point to 11.16% [7]. - The company reported a decrease in sales expense ratio by 2 percentage points to 10.33% due to reduced employee compensation [7]. Business Expansion - The company has seen significant growth in franchise sales, with revenue from franchise sales increasing by 10% to 1.471 billion yuan, driven by network expansion and GMV growth [8]. - New product launches have been successful, with the "Dark Night Rose" series selling over 2.1 million cups in its first week and the "Daily Fiber+" fruit and vegetable tea selling over 3 million cups in its first week [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain strong performance with projected revenues of 3.925 billion yuan in 2025, 4.623 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.288 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.51%, 17.77%, and 14.39% respectively [12]. - The net profit is forecasted to reach 500.84 million yuan in 2025, 592.07 million yuan in 2026, and 681.70 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.26%, 18.22%, and 15.14% respectively [12].
方便面,正被外卖杀死?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-12 04:06
Core Viewpoint - The takeaway from the article is that the instant noodle industry is facing significant challenges due to the rise of food delivery services and the expansion of pre-packaged meals, leading to a decline in instant noodle sales [1] Industry Summary - The emergence of the food delivery battle in 2015 has negatively impacted the sales of instant noodles, which were once a staple food in the country [1] - The current second wave of the food delivery battle, along with the rapid growth of pre-packaged meals, has further exacerbated the already struggling instant noodle industry [1] - Despite the decline in popularity, instant noodles still hold sentimental value for many individuals, particularly as a source of comfort during late-night cravings [1]
每经热评︱ “外卖大战”升维,让“到烟火里去”成为全民共识
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-11 08:36
每经评论员 付克友 9月10日,阿里巴巴推出"高德扫街榜",保密3个月的神秘项目,一出手就成了"王炸"。那句"出发,到 烟火里去"的口号,温情脉脉,充满号召力和吸引力。 守护烟火,需要重构平台与商家的共生环境。曾几何时,平台依赖高额补贴与流量倾斜争夺市场,许多 中小商家陷入"抽成高、流量贵、利润薄"的生存困境。新的竞争逻辑下,平台应该是公平经营环境的构 建者,而不能继续成为流量的垄断分配者。 守护烟火,需要重建商家与消费者的信任关系。在一些生活服务平台上,刷单炒信、虚假点评、营销注 水等乱象普遍,严重破坏了商家与消费者之间的信任基础。这样的评价机制必须改变。当商家只需专注 提升产品与服务品质,便能通过真实消费行为积累声誉,消费者才能获得可信赖的决策参考,平台则重 新扮演起信任桥梁的角色。 值得注意的是,就在"高德扫街榜"发布前夕,市场监管总局今年第三次约谈主要外卖平台,相关平台承 诺"严守法律法规,杜绝不正当竞争,抵制恶性补贴,推动行业规范有序发展"。 "高德扫街榜"的推出正当其时,可以看作是"外卖大战"进入新阶段,在更高维度竞争的产物。它的本 质,是希望用真实的行为数据、良性的生态循环,来重塑本地生活服务的 ...