Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic developments, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data [2][64][76] - The Japanese government has approved a significant economic stimulus plan amounting to 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD), marking a 31% increase from the previous year's budget [64] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, which was above market expectations [74] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [76] Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data Asset Classes - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while COMEX silver saw a significant increase [2] - Major stock indices in developed markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the Nasdaq up 0.5% [3] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.6% to 56.5 USD per barrel, while COMEX gold increased by 1.2% to 4,354.0 USD per ounce [2][45] Economic Data - The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs in November, surpassing expectations [74] - The CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, significantly lower than expected, with core CPI at 2.6% [76] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, while the European Central Bank maintained its rates [2][64] Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices saw increases, with WTI crude oil down 1.6% and COMEX silver up 9.4% [45][52] - The prices of various metals, including LME copper and aluminum, also increased [52]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、赵宇、王茂宇 一、热点思考：人民币升值，"结汇潮"的助推？ （一）近期人民币升值是"结汇"推动的吗？结汇率未现走高，美元走弱仍有助力 10月中旬以来，人民币经历了一波快速的升值，但结汇率并未走高。 期间，美元指数仅小幅走弱 0.34%、而人民币兑美元大幅升值1.42%；这引发了市场对"年终结汇潮"的热议。但9月不含远期履约结汇 率走高至63.1%后，10月、11月结汇率连续走低，分别录得54.1%、52.0%。 从多个维度的辅助观测来看，11月以来的结汇潮似乎也暂未出现明显加速迹象。 结汇加速时，往往会出 现：掉期点走高、人民币询价成交放量、离在岸价差走高、外汇存款减少。但11月以来：掉期点差由 97pips走低至36pips、询价成交缩量、离在岸价差走低、外汇存款仍在增长。 实际上，10月下旬的汇率升值或与央行逆周期调节有关，12月或是美元走弱的助力。 1）10月至11月， 在"三价合一"的背景下，央行重启逆周期因子、不断调升的中间价对升值有一定引导；2）12月以来，美 元再度走弱，人民币与美元的1个月动态相关性快速回升至0.95。 （二）"年终结汇"的规律成立吗？贸易结汇额会 ...

Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic events, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data [2][70][76] - The Japanese government has approved a significant economic stimulus package amounting to 18.3 trillion yen (approximately $118 billion), marking a 31% increase from the previous year's budget [64] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, which was above market expectations [74] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [76] Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while COMEX silver saw a significant increase [3] - Developed market indices showed mixed performance, with the UK FTSE 100 and France's CAC40 rising by 2.6% and 1.0%, respectively, while the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index fell by 2.6% and 1.1% [3] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices increased by 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.0 basis points to 4.16% [2][3] Group 2: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate increased from 4.4% to 4.6% [74] - The labor force participation rate was reported at 62.5%, slightly above the expected 62.4% [74] Group 3: Inflation Data - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%, both significantly lower than market expectations [76] - The data collection for CPI was affected by the government shutdown, leading to potential distortions in the reported figures [76]