证券研究报告 | 2025年09月25日 政府债周报 四季度地方债发行计划已披露七千三百亿 政府债净融资第 38 周（9/15-9/21）3179 亿，第 39 周（9/22-9/28）-220 亿。截至第 38 周（9/15-9/21）累计 11.5 万亿，超出去年同期 5.1 万 亿。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 38 周（9/15-9/21）4056 亿，第 39 周 （9/22-9/28）108 亿。截至第 38 周（9/15-9/21）广义赤字累计 9.7 万 亿，进度 81.9%。 国债第 38 周（9/15-9/21）净融资 2871 亿，第 39 周（9/22-9/28）-1444 亿。截至第 38 周（9/15-9/21）累计 5.5 万亿，进度 83.2%。 地方债净融资第 38 周（9/15-9/21）309 亿，第 39 周（9/22-9/28）1225 亿。截至第 38 周（9/15-9/21）累计 6.0 万亿，超出去年同期 2.7 万亿。 截至 9-24，四季度地方债发行计划七千三百亿，包括四百亿新增一般债 和三千九百亿新增专项债。截至 9-24，2025 年四季度地方债发行计 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report presents some basic economic data, including the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment at 1.60%, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 3.70%, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the current month at 4.40%, and M2 at 8.80% [4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 206.5 billion yuan in the 36th week (9/1 - 9/7) and 608 billion yuan in the 37th week (9/8 - 9/14). As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount reached 10.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.7 trillion yuan [1][5]. Treasury Bond and Local Bond - The net financing of treasury bonds was 169.8 billion yuan in the 36th week and 415.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 4.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 72.7%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [7]. - Local bond net financing was 36.7 billion yuan in the 36th week and 192.8 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 5.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.9 trillion yuan [9]. New General Bonds and New Special Bonds - New general bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 14.7 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 620.8 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year [9]. - New special bonds had a net financing of 178 billion yuan in the 36th week and 131.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 3.3 trillion yuan, with a progress of 74.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 112.23 billion yuan had been issued, including 15.43 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special bonds of 32.84 billion yuan had been issued [2][12]. Special Refinancing Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - Special refinancing bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 26.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 1.96 trillion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [22]. - Urban investment bonds had a net financing of -36.9 billion yuan in the 36th week and are expected to be -10.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was 10.1 trillion yuan [2][27].

政府债净融资第 35 周（8/25-8/31）64 亿，第 36 周（9/1-9/7）2065 亿。截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）累计 10.3 万亿，超出去年同期 4.5 万 亿。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 35 周（8/25-8/31）-138 亿，第 36 周 （9/1-9/7）1877 亿。截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）广义赤字累计 8.6 万 亿，进度 72.1%。 国债第 35 周（8/25-8/31）净融资-2371 亿，第 36 周（9/1-9/7）1698 亿。截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）累计 4.7 万亿，进度 70.1%。 地方债净融资第 35 周（8/25-8/31）2435 亿，第 36 周（9/1-9/7）367 亿。截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）累计 5.7 万亿。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月04日 政府债周报 特殊新增专项债已发行 1.1 万亿 新增一般债第 35 周（8/25-8/31）353 亿，第 36 周（9/1-9/7）0 亿。 截至第 35 周（8/25-8/31）累计 6208 亿，进度 77.6%。 新增专项债第 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The report presents key economic indicators including a 1.60% year - on - year cumulative growth in fixed asset investment, 3.70% year - on - year growth in the total retail sales of consumer goods for the current month, 7.20% year - on - year growth in exports for the current month, and an 8.80% growth in M2 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 5614 billion yuan in the 34th week (8/18 - 8/24) and 64 billion yuan in the 35th week (8/25 - 8/31). As of the 34th week, the cumulative net financing reached 10.3 trillion yuan, 4.8 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][5]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond net financing was 3526 billion yuan in the 34th week and - 2371 billion yuan in the 35th week. The annual net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 34th week, the cumulative net financing was 4.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 73.7%, exceeding the average of the past five years [6]. Local Bond - Local bond net financing was 2088 billion yuan in the 34th week and 2435 billion yuan in the 35th week. As of the 34th week, the cumulative net financing was 5.5 trillion yuan, 3 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8]. New General Bond - New general bond issuance was 95 billion yuan in the 34th week and 353 billion yuan in the 35th week. The 2025 local deficit is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 34th week, the cumulative issuance was 5855 billion yuan, with a progress of 73.2%, exceeding the same period last year [8]. New Special Bond - New special bond issuance was 2393 billion yuan in the 34th week and 1880 billion yuan in the 35th week. The 2025 new special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 34th week, the cumulative issuance was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 69.9%, exceeding the same period last year [12]. Special New Special Bond - Special new special bonds worth 9680 billion yuan have been issued, with 2129 billion yuan issued since August, accounting for 44% of new special bonds. Besides 800 billion yuan for debt resolution, the remaining over 100 billion yuan will be used for "arrears clearance" [12]. Land Reserve Special Bond - Land reserve special bonds worth 3031 billion yuan have been issued. As of August 24, projects in 27 provinces and municipalities covered 4949 parcels of land, with a total capital scale of 5476 billion yuan [12]. Special Refinancing Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 245 billion yuan in the 34th week and 291 billion yuan in the 35th week. As of the 34th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 95% [22]. Urban Investment Bond - Urban investment bond net financing was - 6 billion yuan in the 34th week and is expected to be - 402 billion yuan in the 35th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 10.2 trillion yuan [2][27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The report presents some economic data, including the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment at 1.60%, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 3.70%, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the current month at 7.20%, and the M2 growth rate at 8.80% [4]. Summary by Category Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 200.9 billion yuan in Week 33 (8/11 - 8/17) and 560.7 billion yuan in Week 34 (8/18 - 8/24). As of Week 33, the cumulative amount reached 9.8 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.6 trillion yuan [1][5]. General Deficit - The sum of national debt net financing and new local bond issuance was 264 billion yuan in Week 33 and 600.7 billion yuan in Week 34. As of Week 33, the cumulative general deficit was 8.0 trillion yuan, with a progress of 67.2%, exceeding the same period last year [1][5]. National Debt - National debt net financing was 214.6 billion yuan in Week 33 and 351.9 billion yuan in Week 34. The annual national debt net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of Week 33, the cumulative amount was 4.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 68.4%, exceeding the average of the past five years [1][6]. Local Bond - Local bond net financing was -13.7 billion yuan in Week 33 and 208.8 billion yuan in Week 34. As of Week 33, the cumulative amount reached 5.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.8 trillion yuan [1][8]. New General Bond - New general bond issuance was 30.3 billion yuan in Week 33 and 9.5 billion yuan in Week 34. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of Week 33, the cumulative issuance was 57.59 billion yuan, with a progress of 72.0%, exceeding the same period last year [1][8]. New Special Bond - New special bond issuance was 19 billion yuan in Week 33 and 239.3 billion yuan in Week 34. In 2025, the planned new special bond issuance is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of Week 33, the cumulative issuance was 2.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 64.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 936.2 billion yuan have been issued, with 181.1 billion yuan issued since August, accounting for 49% of new special bonds. Land reserve special bonds of 281.7 billion yuan have been issued [2][12]. Special Refinancing Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 1.2 billion yuan in Week 33 and 24.5 billion yuan in Week 34. As of Week 33, the cumulative issuance was 1.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 94% [2][24]. Urban Investment Bond - Urban investment bond net financing was -6.2 billion yuan in Week 33 and is expected to be -23.5 billion yuan in Week 34. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 10.2 trillion yuan [2][29].

Financing Overview - Government debt net financing for week 33 (8/11-8/17) was 200.9 billion, and for week 34 (8/18-8/24) it was 560.7 billion, totaling 980 billion by week 33, exceeding last year's 460 billion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 8.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 67.2% as of week 33[5] - National debt net financing for week 33 was 214.6 billion, and for week 34 it was 351.9 billion, with a cumulative total of 4.6 trillion, achieving 68.4% of the annual target[6] Local Government Debt - Local government debt net financing for week 33 was -13.7 billion, while week 34 saw 208.8 billion, with a cumulative total of 5.2 trillion, surpassing last year's 2.8 trillion[8] - New general bonds issued amounted to 30.3 billion in week 33 and 9.5 billion in week 34, with a cumulative total of 575.9 billion, achieving 72.0% of the annual target[8] Special Bonds and Other Debt - New special bonds issued in week 33 were 19.0 billion, and in week 34, they surged to 239.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion, reaching 64.5% of the annual target[12] - Special refinancing bonds issued in week 33 were 1.2 billion, and in week 34, they increased to 24.5 billion, with a cumulative total of 1.9 trillion, achieving 94% of the issuance target[24] - City investment bonds saw net financing of -6.2 billion in week 33 and an estimated -23.5 billion in week 34, with a total balance of 10.2 trillion[29]

Government Debt Financing - Net financing for government debt in week 31 (July 28 - August 3) was 402.8 billion, and in week 32 (August 4 - August 10) it was 397.4 billion, totaling 9.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 5 trillion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 7.3 trillion, with a progress rate of 61.7%[5] - Net financing for treasury bonds in week 31 was 160.2 billion, and in week 32 it was 314.6 billion, totaling 4.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 60.1%[7] Local Government Debt - Net financing for local government debt in week 31 was 242.5 billion, and in week 32 it was 82.8 billion, totaling 5.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 3.1 trillion[9] - New general bonds issued in week 31 were 20.9 billion, and in week 32 they were 7.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 538.3 billion and a progress rate of 67.3%[9] Special Bonds - New special bonds in week 31 amounted to 183.2 billion, and in week 32 they were 40.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion and a progress rate of 63.1%[13] - Special new bonds issued reached 806 billion, surpassing the initial target of 800 billion, with 509 billion issued since August, accounting for 98% of new special bonds[13] Risk and Warnings - There is a risk of data statistical errors, with actual issuance potentially differing significantly from planned figures[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The report presents basic economic data including fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year at 2.80, social retail sales total monthly year - on - year at 4.80, export monthly year - on - year at 5.90, and M2 at 8.30 [4] Summary by Relevant Categories Government Bond Net Financing - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), government bond net financing was 3036 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 4025 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 8.7 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 4.8 trillion [1][5] Treasury Bond Net Financing - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), treasury bond net financing was 107 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 1600 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 3.8 trillion, with a progress of 57.7%, exceeding the average of the past five years [7] Local Bond Net Financing - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), local bond net financing was 2929 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 2425 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 4.9 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 3 trillion [1][9] New General Bond - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), new general bond issuance was 233 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 209 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 5174 billion, with a progress of 64.7%, exceeding the same period last year [1][9] New Special Bond - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), new special bond issuance was 2054 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 1832 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 2.6 trillion, with a progress of 59.0%, exceeding the same period last year [2][12] - Special new special bonds of 7769 billion have been issued, with 2878 billion issued in July, accounting for 47% of new special bonds. The 8000 - billion quota may be issued by the third quarter [12] - Land reserve special bonds of 2639 billion have been issued. As of July 27, 27 provinces and cities have announced relevant progress, covering 4658 plots of land with a total capital scale of 5181 billion [2][12] Special Refinancing Bond - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), special refinancing bond issuance was 119 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 454 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 1.8 trillion, with a issuance progress of 92% [2][25] Urban Investment Bond - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), urban investment bond net financing was - 306 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it is expected to be - 287 billion. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.3 trillion [2][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - The core view includes basic economic data such as the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment at 2.80, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 4.80, the year - on - year growth rate of exports in the current month at 5.90, and M2 at 8.30 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 208.6 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20) and 303.6 billion yuan in the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27). As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 8.4 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.5 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and the rapid issuance of treasury bonds [1][7]. - The sum of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 247.2 billion yuan in the 29th week and 239.4 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative general deficit was 6.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 56.6% [1][7]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - Treasury bond net financing was 5.82 billion yuan in the 29th week and 1.07 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 3.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 57.5%, exceeding the same period in the past five years. The total annual treasury bond net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. In 2025, the central deficit is 4.86 trillion yuan, with 1.8 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds arranged: 1.3 trillion yuan is ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (300 billion yuan for consumer goods trade - in), and 500 billion yuan is for supplementing the capital of state - owned large - scale banks [1][8]. Local Bond Net Financing - Local bond net financing was 150.5 billion yuan in the 29th week and 292.9 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 4.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.8 trillion yuan [1][10]. New General Bond - New general bond issuance was 2.76 billion yuan in the 29th week and 2.33 billion yuan in the 30th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 49.41 billion yuan, with a progress of 61.8%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11][13]. New Special Bond - New special bond issuance was 161.4 billion yuan in the 29th week and 205.4 billion yuan in the 30th week. In 2025, the planned issuance of new special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 2.4 trillion yuan, with a progress of 54.3%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 71.7 billion yuan have been issued, of which 25.22 billion yuan has been issued since July, accounting for 41% of new special bonds. The 80 - billion - yuan quota may be issued by the end of the third quarter. Land reserve special bonds of 25.58 billion yuan have been issued. As of July 6, the cumulative number of disclosed projects for acquiring idle land was 4,343 parcels, with a capital scale of 489.7 billion yuan [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 0 billion yuan in the 29th week and 1.19 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 91% [2][32]. Urban Investment Bond - Urban investment bond net financing was - 1.24 billion yuan in the 29th week and is expected to be - 3.9 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.3 trillion yuan [2][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents some basic economic data including fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year at 2.80, social retail sales total monthly year - on - year at 4.80, export monthly year - on - year at 5.80, and M2 at 8.30 [4] Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 303.4 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 208.4 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 8.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.4 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and the rapid issuance of treasury bonds [1][7] General Deficit - The sum of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 271.6 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 247 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of the 28th week, the cumulative general deficit was 6.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 54.5% [1][7] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond net financing was 193.1 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 57.9 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). The total annual treasury bond net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 3.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 56.7%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [8] Local Bonds - Local bond net financing was 110.2 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 150.5 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 4.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.7 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Bonds - New general bonds issuance was 1.45 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 2.76 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 46.65 billion yuan, with a progress of 58.3%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11][13] New Special Bonds - New special bonds issuance was 64 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 161.4 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). In 2025, the planned new special bonds are 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 2.2 trillion yuan, with a progress of 50.6%. Special new special bonds of 639.6 billion yuan have been issued, of which 174.8 billion yuan was issued in July, accounting for 44% of new special bonds. The 800 - billion - yuan quota may be issued by the third quarter. Land reserve special bonds of 224 billion yuan have been issued [2][15] Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bonds issuance was 28.6 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 0 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 1.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 91% [2][26] Urban Investment Bonds - Urban investment bond net financing was 4.5 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and is expected to be - 3.8 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.3 trillion yuan [2][26]