丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 从美国库存看中国出口机遇：科技出海创新高， 制造消费能否跟上？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 美联储重启降息周期，或带动美国需求复苏。截至 2025 年 6 月，美国名义库存同比与实际库 存同比增速均呈现回落态势，同时库销比也有所下降，反映出当前库存水平相对于销售规模趋 于收紧，未来存在或存在补库需求。分部门来看，美国制造业 6 月库存同比历史分位数处于 1998 年 1 月以来的 38.9%分位，批发商行业处于 26.4%的历史分位水平，零售贸易行业处于 36.7% 的历史分位水平，反映出整体库存压力显著减轻。在此背景下，部分行业或迎来布局良机。其 中家电、机械、汽车及轻工等板块库存去化尤为明显，值得市场重点关注。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从美国库存看中国出口机遇：科技出海创新高， 2] 制造消费能否跟上？ [Table_S ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming promotional season in overseas markets is expected to boost panel procurement, which serves as a leading indicator for television demand [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of the year, Korean brands experienced poor sales, leading to significant inventory reduction that impacted panel procurement demand [1] - The inventory reduction phase has ended, signaling a turnaround in panel procurement [1] Group 2: Data Insights - According to Aowei Cloud Network data, global TV panel shipments reached 22.3 million units in August 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a month-on-month increase of 4.9% [1] - This positive trend has continued since July, reflecting a cyclical recovery in inventory demand [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Global TV brands are actively preparing for the upcoming overseas promotional peaks during Black Friday and Christmas, indicating a short-term surge in overseas TV demand [1] - This anticipated demand may help mitigate some of the impacts from the domestic subsidy reduction [1]

格隆汇9月25日｜中国银河证券指出，海外下半年促销旺季即将到来，面板采购呈现积极信号：面板采 购量是电视需求的前瞻指标。上半年韩国品牌销售较差，面板一度大力去库存，影响面部采购需求，当 前去库存结束迎来转机。奥维睿沃数据，25年8月全球电视面板出货量达22.3百万片，同比+7.6%、环比 +4.9%，延续了7月以来的积极态势，反应了市场周期性的库存回补需求，全球电视品牌商正为下半年 海外黑五、圣诞促销旺季积极备货。从全球角度看，下半年海外电视需求走向短期高峰，或将平抑国内 国补退坡的部分影响。 ...