丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 从美国库存看中国出口机遇：科技出海创新高， 制造消费能否跟上？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 美联储重启降息周期，或带动美国需求复苏。截至 2025 年 6 月，美国名义库存同比与实际库 存同比增速均呈现回落态势，同时库销比也有所下降，反映出当前库存水平相对于销售规模趋 于收紧，未来存在或存在补库需求。分部门来看，美国制造业 6 月库存同比历史分位数处于 1998 年 1 月以来的 38.9%分位，批发商行业处于 26.4%的历史分位水平，零售贸易行业处于 36.7% 的历史分位水平，反映出整体库存压力显著减轻。在此背景下，部分行业或迎来布局良机。其 中家电、机械、汽车及轻工等板块库存去化尤为明显，值得市场重点关注。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从美国库存看中国出口机遇：科技出海创新高， 2] 制造消费能否跟上？ [Table_S ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that Jinbo Biological's private placement has been accepted, aiming to raise 2 billion for the development of a humanized collagen FAST database and product development platform, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's R&D efficiency and lay a solid foundation for long-term growth [11][12] - Wantong Hydraulic's convertible bonds have been successfully registered, with plans to raise 150 million, where Pangu Intelligent, a listed company, will subscribe for no less than 120 million [12][13] - The report emphasizes a structural market outlook for Q4, suggesting that investors should focus on core assets related to the North Exchange and manage trading rhythms effectively [12][13] Group 2 - The North Exchange 50 index fell by 1.43%, with a trading volume of 57.34 billion shares, a decrease of 13.21% week-on-week, and a trading value of 1361.69 billion yuan, down 14.73% [18][24] - The report notes that 66 stocks rose while 207 fell, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.32, with notable gainers including Kaiter Co. (+33.76%) and Sanwei Equipment (+22.53%) [38][39] - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is 87.36 times, with a median of 49.68 times, indicating a decrease in valuation metrics [24][25] Group 3 - The report mentions that 10 new companies were listed on the New Third Board, while 5 were delisted, with a total planned financing of 362 million yuan and completed financing of 133 million yuan [47][48] - The newly listed company, Shichang Co., had a first-day increase of 271.56%, with a trading volume of 6.41 billion yuan [26][30] - The report indicates that the New Third Board currently has 6021 listed companies, with 2319 in the innovation layer and 3702 in the basic layer [47]

Core Viewpoint - The forum focused on "Investment Logic and Value Creation Driven by New Quality Productivity," emphasizing opportunities in hard technology sectors, technological innovation, and the integration of capital and industry [1]. Group 1: Key Themes and Discussions - The "New Quality Productivity Investment Forum" was successfully held, providing a professional platform for deep communication and collaboration in the industry [1]. - Liu Haofei, the founding partner of Shengjing Jiacheng, highlighted that sectors such as AI, embodied intelligence, low-altitude economy, and technology going abroad could create opportunities worth trillions [5]. - The investment strategy proposed by Liu involves a "three horizontal and multiple vertical" approach, focusing on large enterprise incubation, AI result-oriented RaaS models, and supporting entrepreneurs in going abroad [5]. Group 2: Roundtable Discussions - A roundtable on "Value Creation in the New Quality Productivity Era" featured discussions on industry innovation and how startups can cope with internal competition, led by Wang Meng from Junshan Mother Fund [8]. - Another discussion on "New Opportunities in Technology-Driven Consumption" explored how to seize historical opportunities in technology-driven consumption and the relationship between future and traditional industries, moderated by Yao Fengjiao from Bailian Zhigao Capital [10]. - The session on "Healthcare and Wellness Across Cycles" addressed strategies for capitalizing on the recovery in the healthcare sector and opportunities in AI healthcare, moderated by Yi Lin from Defu Capital [14]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Si Tingyou, president of BC Asset Management, discussed trends in China's innovative pharmaceuticals, noting that recent collaborations between Chinese innovative drug companies and international pharmaceutical giants indicate recognition of China's R&D capabilities [12]. - The future focus for Chinese innovative drugs should be on global innovation, with the Hong Kong market expected to see long-term foreign capital inflows [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic positioning of Horizon Robotics in the global smart driving industry, emphasizing its role as a "non-car manufacturer Tesla" that focuses on providing comprehensive solutions in the smart driving ecosystem [3][4] - Horizon's approach is characterized by a collaborative philosophy, aiming to empower automotive manufacturers by filling the gaps in the smart driving value chain, thus achieving a significant market share in China [4][5] - The company is poised for a technological leap, likening the current moment in smart driving to the "4G moment" in mobile communications, with its HSD system set to revolutionize the market by making advanced driving assistance accessible to mainstream vehicles [5][6][8] Company Strategy - Horizon Robotics is recognized for its "four quadrants" strategy, encompassing chips, software, cockpit, and intelligent driving, positioning itself as a comprehensive enabler for automotive companies [3][4] - The company has achieved a 45.8% market share in China's ADAS front-view integrated machine market in the first half of 2025, collaborating with over 40 manufacturers and enabling more than 400 models [4][5] - Horizon aims to transition from "millions of chips" to "millions of HSD systems," focusing on delivering a fully integrated autonomous driving solution that combines perception, decision-making, and execution [11][12] Technological Advancements - The HSD system, which debuted at the Munich Auto Show, integrates advanced algorithms and low-latency processing, marking a significant step in the evolution of smart driving technology [5][6][7] - Horizon's chips, such as the Journey 6P, boast a processing power of 560 TOPS, placing them in the same league as competitors like Mobileye and NVIDIA [7] - The company emphasizes making high-level driving assistance a standard feature in affordable vehicles, aiming to democratize access to advanced driving technologies [6][8] Global Expansion - Horizon has established a European headquarters in Munich and formed deep partnerships with major Tier-1 suppliers, completing extensive overseas testing [15][16] - The company has secured collaborations with nine joint venture automakers for 30 models, projecting over 7.5 million overseas orders in the future [15][16] - Horizon's strategy for international expansion focuses on building trust and ecological partnerships rather than merely increasing shipment volumes, reflecting a long-term vision for global market integration [15][16]

结构上看，港股众多优质创新药龙头尚有约20%空间，A股预期差标的更为稀缺。投资上应聚焦确定性 龙头。行业主题方面，双抗依然是投资主旋律。自免、小核酸、基因治疗等主题性个股，则需深挖预期 差或转型机会，以期获得自身阿尔法。 医药板块内部展开来看，CXO器械板块自去年底至今，环比趋势明显改善。未来两个季度的关键在于 CXO国内景气度、器械国内招标与景气度能否持续，这将直接决定二者明年能否承接创新药行情。在9- 10月窗口期，会适当提升CXO与器械板块的配置比例，侧重寻找确定性阿尔法标的。至于如中药、药 店等后线板块，无论基本面确定性还是修复速度，均逊于CRO和器械，配置优先级相对更低。 桑翔宇表示，投资节奏来看，第一波为3-6月炒数据阶段，第二波为6-10月炒BD阶段，第三波则BD产品 出海后于海外临床验证，这一阶段风险相对大于收益。第四阶段，就是如美股上市的创新药公司，上市 后利润表极大改善。在第一、二、四阶段应尽量乐观，第三阶段更宜通过主动管理规避风险、深挖阿尔 法。之前讲过ADC，PD-1双抗与TCE三个方向。 9月10日，华安基金经理桑翔宇分享了医药创新和AI医疗的机会。桑翔宇表示，创新药为全年主线，AI ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall A-share market is expected to remain in a bottoming phase in 2025, with non-financial sectors stabilizing in revenue growth and return on equity (ROE) [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The industrial sector's profitability is primarily affected by commodity prices, with upstream resource and basic commodity profits declining by 2.1% and 18.7% year-on-year in Q2, respectively [1] - Consumer sector profits fell from a 4.9% increase in Q1 to a -6.5% decrease in Q2 [1] - The technology sector saw a significant profit increase of 19% year-on-year in the first half, aligning with market trends [1] - Financial sector profit growth mainly came from brokerage firms, while large-cap companies demonstrated strong profit resilience, with the overall profit growth of CSI 1000/CSI 2000 constituents declining to around -9% year-on-year in Q2 [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - High-performing sectors in the first half of the year were concentrated in technology, including telecommunications, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, semiconductors, gaming, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - Within the technology sector, companies focused on domestic demand performed well, particularly in electronics, supported by a low base and semiconductor backing, while other sectors like telecommunications and media showed better performance in external demand [2] - The forecast for net profit adjustments for 2025 indicates a notable increase for two categories: a rebound in certain domestic demand products (e.g., building materials, steel) and strong performers in overseas markets, particularly in technology exports [2] Group 3: International Expansion - The analysis highlights that international expansion is a key factor for exceeding mid-year expectations, despite challenges such as tariffs, exchange rate losses, and cash flow pressures [2] - Representative companies with accelerated overseas operations have seen improvements in ROE and profit margins, indicating that international expansion has become a core pillar of financial growth for some firms [2]

Group 1: Autonomous Driving Initiatives - Baidu is launching its autonomous driving business in Europe, starting with an office in Zurich and plans to operate in Switzerland and Europe by next year, initially with safety drivers in vehicles [1] - Pony.ai is planning to deploy a fleet of autonomous taxis in Hong Kong after overcoming regulatory hurdles, while downplaying competition from Tesla [2] Group 2: Automotive Industry Developments - ZhiMi Technology has officially announced its entry into the automotive sector, aiming to produce a luxury electric vehicle comparable to Bugatti, with a team of nearly 1,000 people and a patent portfolio of 6,379 applications [4] - BYD's vehicle registrations in the EU doubled in July, surpassing Tesla's registrations, with 13,503 units sold across the EU and additional countries [9] - BYD has launched the Atto 1 in Indonesia, with two models priced at 2.09 billion and 2.49 billion Indonesian Rupiah [10] - BYD announced plans to build an assembly plant in Malaysia, expected to start production in 2026 [12] - BYD's Thailand factory has produced and exported over 900 Dolphin electric vehicles to Europe, marking a significant milestone for the company [14] Group 3: Consumer Brands Expansion - Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan and a global store count of 53,014 [5] - Lucky Coffee has opened its first overseas store in Malaysia, offering a localized menu alongside classic products [7] - Xiaomi has established around 200 stores overseas, with a target of over 100 stores in Southeast Asia by 2025 [8] Group 4: Investment and Financing Activities - JD.com is planning to establish a real estate investment trust (REIT) in Singapore, with assets potentially exceeding $1 billion [18] - Chery Automobile has made significant progress towards its IPO in Hong Kong, with plans to issue up to 699 million shares [19]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Junyu Engineering Group and Wangmao Liquor Group marks a significant move for the Chinese liquor industry, aiming to become the first Chinese liquor company listed on the US stock market through a reverse merger, despite controversies surrounding this claim [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Junyu Engineering Group, primarily engaged in earthworks transportation services in Hong Kong, is diversifying its business by partnering with Wangmao Liquor Group, which will maintain its independent brand operation while leveraging Junyu's resources for upgrades [2]. - Wangmao Liquor Group, established in 2018 with a registered capital of 100 million RMB, has no reported employees, raising concerns about its operational capacity [1][4]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The reverse merger strategy allows non-listed companies to acquire control of a shell company, facilitating a quicker and more cost-effective path to public listing compared to traditional methods [1]. - Wangmao Liquor Group is incorporating advanced technology concepts such as AIoT in traditional liquor production and integrating NFT digital collectibles with AR customization systems, aiming to attract attention and enhance its market presence [4]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Junyu Engineering's stock has experienced extreme volatility since its listing in July 2024, with a nearly tenfold increase followed by a subsequent drop of nearly 90%, putting it at risk of delisting from NASDAQ [4]. - The partnership with Wangmao Liquor Group is seen as a potential lifeline for Junyu Engineering to avoid delisting while simultaneously boosting Wangmao's visibility and brand image in the market [4].

Core Insights - The second Vietnam-Shenzhen High-Tech Development Cooperation Conference was held in Hanoi, emphasizing the importance of high-tech as a core link for global connectivity and future development [1] - The conference highlighted the strategic partnership between Shenzhen and Vietnam, focusing on complementary industrial chains and collaborative innovation [4] Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference was co-hosted by the Shenzhen High-Tech Enterprise Collaborative Innovation Promotion Association, the Vietnam-China Business Council, and the Vietnam-China Business Consulting Company, with support from various Vietnamese governmental departments [1] - The event served as a high-level dialogue platform for technology cooperation between Shenzhen and Vietnam, showcasing Shenzhen's strong motivation for international expansion [1][4] Group 2: Key Discussions and Presentations - Shenzhen's advantages in electronic information, artificial intelligence, and green energy were discussed, providing direction for cooperation [4] - Vietnamese market demands for technological innovation and industrial upgrades were highlighted, offering a clear demand profile for Shenzhen enterprises [4] - Various speakers from Vietnamese associations discussed topics such as e-commerce empowerment and optimizing the foreign investment environment [4] Group 3: Collaborative Initiatives - The establishment of the "Shenzhen Futian District Outbound Service Station (Vietnam)" marks a significant step in providing quality service resources for Shenzhen enterprises in Vietnam [5] - A service list was released, covering policy consultation, market connection, and resource integration to support Shenzhen enterprises in sustainable development in Southeast Asia [5] - A cooperation agreement was signed between Shenzhen High-Tech Promotion Association and VCBC, aiming to enhance cooperation mechanisms and provide more precise collaboration channels [5] Group 4: Industry Representation - Eight companies from Shenzhen and Guangzhou presented their innovative achievements and cooperation opportunities, showcasing Shenzhen's strong capabilities in high-tech industries [6] - Companies from various sectors, including digital solutions, aerospace technology, and medical technology, demonstrated the diversity and high innovation of Shenzhen's industries [7] - The potential for collaboration between Shenzhen's technological advantages and Vietnam's market opportunities was emphasized, despite challenges such as cultural differences and policy adaptation [7] Group 5: Future Directions - The Shenzhen High-Tech Promotion Association aims to continue facilitating international cooperation and promoting "people-to-people technology diplomacy" [8] - The association's mission includes organizing international exhibitions, building cross-border cooperation platforms, and conducting overseas market research [8] - The successful hosting of the conference is seen as a significant achievement in deepening cooperation between Shenzhen and Vietnam, contributing to global technological innovation [8]

Group 1 - Manus AI's Revenue Run Rate (RRR) has reached $90 million, with expectations to exceed $100 million soon [1] - Manus is collaborating with Stripe to enable payments within their Agent platform, aiming to create a seamless "research-decision-order/settlement" process [1] Group 2 - Haier Biomedical signed a strategic cooperation agreement with RAM Medical Group in Thailand, focusing on pharmacy automation and smart healthcare [2] - This partnership marks a significant step in Haier's "one country, one policy" overseas strategy in Southeast Asia, targeting a market of 670 million people [2] Group 3 - Lenovo Group is establishing a regional headquarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as part of its strategic cooperation with the Public Investment Fund [2] - This move supports Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and aims to enhance Lenovo's local leadership and operational capabilities [2] Group 4 - Rokid Glasses, an AI+AR product, has received 300,000 global orders and launched its overseas version in Hong Kong [3] - This launch is a key milestone in Rokid's global expansion strategy [3] Group 5 - Meituan's international delivery brand Keeta has officially launched in Doha, Qatar, with plans to expand into Brazil in the coming months [4] Group 6 - Leap Motor has exported 24,980 vehicles in the first seven months of 2025, leading the new energy vehicle export rankings in China [5] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with a new ship designed for car transport set to deliver over 2,500 vehicles to Europe [5] Group 7 - Zhaowei Electromechanical plans to invest $10 million in a new production base in Thailand, enhancing its international market presence [7] Group 8 - XGIMI's first projector from its Vietnam factory has officially rolled off the production line, with an investment of $14 million and an annual capacity of 1 million units [8] - The factory is a crucial part of XGIMI's global supply chain and is expected to drive significant growth in overseas revenue [8] Group 9 - Great Wall Motors' factory in Brazil has been completed and is set to produce 50,000 vehicles annually, focusing on smart and electric models [9] - This factory represents a comprehensive strategic layout for Great Wall Motors in the Brazilian market [9] Group 10 - China Zhongwei New Materials has established a joint venture with Germany's Revomet, acquiring a 25% stake in Revomet Bitterfeld GmbH [10] - This partnership is part of Zhongwei's broader global expansion strategy [10] Group 11 - Ganfeng Lithium is collaborating with Lithium Argentina AG to develop three lithium salt lake projects in Argentina, with a planned annual capacity of 150,000 tons of lithium products [11][12] - Ganfeng International will provide up to $130 million in financial support for this project [12] Group 12 - Temasek led a strategic financing round for TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, achieving a post-investment valuation of approximately HKD 10 billion [13] - TOP TOY generated revenue of 400 million yuan in Q2, with a total of 293 stores [13]