长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：非农强化延迟降息叠加AI恐慌致全球股市抛售，隔夜伦铝收跌 0.63%；国内 春节前下游多放假停产，交易停滞、铝锭社库累积，今现铝或下跌。 【铝期货市场】：非农强化延迟降息叠加AI恐慌致全球股市抛售，隔夜伦铝高台跳水，盘面偏弱收 跌，最新收盘报价3098美元/吨，收跌19美元，跌幅0.63%，成交量29507手增加10501手，持仓量670421 手减少2664手。晚间沪铝开高开后窄幅下行，尾盘跌幅扩大，主力月2603合约最新收盘价报23395元/ 吨，跌215元，跌幅0.91%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月12日伦铝最新库存量报483550公吨，较上个交易日减少2200公吨，跌幅 0.45%。 长江铝业网讯：2月12日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报23360元/吨，涨100元；广东现货A00铝锭价 报23450元/吨，涨50元。 宏观层面，因投资者情绪恶化及其他金融市场暴跌影响，各类金属价格普遍下跌。而软件和科技股再遭 抛售，美国主要股指全线走低；同时，强劲的美国劳动力市场数据降低了市场对央行降息的预期，美元 指数反弹走强，金、铜领跌，铝价随后跟跌。盛宝银行策略主管奥勒 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices experienced a significant drop, closing down over $50, with a 1.54% decline to $3275.29 per ounce, following strong economic data from the U.S. and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1] - Gold prices rebounded slightly from a one-month low, surpassing $3290, after being pressured below $3334 during the Asian and European trading sessions [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, which, combined with strong economic indicators, raises the likelihood of delaying rate cuts until the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The daily trading plan suggests short positions around $3305, with a stop-loss at $3315 and a target of $3255, indicating a bearish outlook for gold [4] - The overall trend for gold is bearish across weekly and monthly charts, suggesting a higher probability of further declines [3] - The oil market shows a different trend, with prices breaking through previous resistance levels and maintaining an upward trajectory, indicating potential for short-term gains [4]

Group 1 - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has risen again due to cooling employment and inflation data in the U.S. [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 247,000, exceeding market expectations and reaching the highest level in eight months, indicating a slowdown in the job market [1] - The core Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased by 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.1%, further supporting the view of a cooling economy [1] Group 2 - The persistent high interest rates are causing structural pressures on the U.S. economy, particularly affecting investment in interest-sensitive sectors like manufacturing and real estate [2] - High financing costs are forcing some companies to delay equipment upgrades and capacity expansion plans, while households are burdened by rigid interest payments on mortgages and auto loans, leading to reduced disposable income [2] - The combination of weak demand and stagnant supply is weakening the growth momentum of the U.S. economy, with rising government debt interest burdens further constraining fiscal policy space [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve prioritizes maintaining price stability over short-term economic pain, influenced by historical lessons from the 1970s stagflation [3] - The Fed's unusual caution in the face of inflation risks reflects a deep-seated dilemma within the monetary policy framework, as current core inflation remains above the 2% target [2][3] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a rare contradiction, with simultaneous labor shortages and increased layoffs, complicating the traditional monetary policy response [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is facing the consequences of previous policy misjudgments during the pandemic, which has led to an overly tight monetary policy to restore credibility [4] - The misalignment of political and business cycles forces monetary policy to address structural issues that should be handled by fiscal policy, complicating the decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [4] - The Fed's cautious approach reflects a fear of reigniting inflation while also being wary of an economic slowdown leading to recession, indicating the limitations of a single monetary policy tool in navigating complex economic realities [4]