对于铜价走势，国投期货表示，特朗普访华前，倾向对中国关税态度相对缓和，需求端主要关注关税相 对低执行期，对国内出口的影响。节后首周，内外铜库存延续增量势头，国内SMM社库增至53.17万 吨，伦铜新奥尔良仓库持续入库。SMM现铜昨报101795元，上海贴水235元。市场仍可能权衡节后旺季 消费强度，但当下全球交易所铜显性库存高。 （文华综合） 最近宏观面不确定性仍强，美国关税政策和美伊局势变化仍待进一步明朗，AI恐慌仍未完全消弭，隔 夜美国纳斯达克指数出现大幅下跌，一度压制市场情绪，但日内期市氛围转暖，且国内政策面偏暖，铜 价仍然偏强运行。 本周LME铜库存累积态势延续，最新库存升至25.36万吨。2月26日国内市场电解铜现货库存53.61万 吨，较24增2.90万吨。周内在途国产货源仍继续到货入库，且下游企业复工复产节奏缓慢，市场需求仍 较为有限，整体库存因此继续增加。节后首周，国内需求恢复仍然偏慢，社库继续累积，后续仍需跟踪 下游复工速度。 沪铜早间弱势运行，午后行情明显回暖，收盘上涨1.19%。全球铜显性库存继续增加，不过期市氛围转 暖，国内政策面吹来暖风，铜价走势偏强。 ...

MFS Investment Management的Benoit Anne在一份报告中称，美国市政债券在2025年表现平平之后，新 年伊始表现亮眼。该市场洞察集团负责人称，在美国各类固定收益资产中，市政债券是目前表现最佳的 资产类别，年初至今回报率为1.6%，跑赢了抵押贷款支持证券、投资级公司债、美国国债和高收益债 券。 888、666、188……专属炒股靓号来了！新年定制福利，开启马年投资好运>> 他表示，近期AI恐慌引发的股市波动，可能提振了市场对市政债券等更具防御性资产的需求。他补充 道："此外，通胀持续降温也利好了包括市政债券在内的久期较长的资产类别。" 888、666、188……专属炒股靓号来了！新年定制福利，开启马年投资好运>> 责任编辑：刘明亮 责任编辑：刘明亮 MFS Investment Management的Benoit Anne在一份报告中称，美国市政债券在2025年表现平平之后，新 年伊始表现亮眼。该市场洞察集团负责人称，在美国各类固定收益资产中，市政债券是目前表现最佳的 资产类别，年初至今回报率为1.6%，跑赢了抵押贷款支持证券、投资级公司债、美国国债和高收益债 券。 他表示，近期A ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced slight gains last week, maintaining an upward trend above the 5-week moving average, indicating a bullish outlook for the future [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened the week at $4987.98 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $5119.05 on Wednesday, dipped to a low of $4878.77 on Thursday, and closed at $5042.63 on Friday, resulting in a weekly increase of $81.77 or 1.65% from the previous week's closing price of $4960.86 [1][3]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions initially drove gold prices higher, but comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying the urgency of interest rate cuts and a White House official refuting employment concerns led to fluctuations in gold prices [3][5]. - The market's reaction to the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which was below expectations, alleviated inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices rebounded after touching a support level, remaining within a new bullish market space and above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [7]. - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices maintained their upward trend despite reduced momentum and volatility, with expectations for new highs supported by the 5-week moving average [7][9]. - Daily charts show that while the rebound momentum has slowed, the overall trend remains upward, with key support levels identified at $4990 and $4930, and resistance levels at $5100 and $5150 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold and silver prices was triggered by strong U.S. employment data, leading to a sharp decline in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices fell nearly $200 within 30 minutes, dropping from above $5000 to below $4900, marking a single-day decline of over 4%, the largest since 2026 [2][3]. - Silver prices plummeted over 10%, falling below $75, with a minimum price of $74.98, indicating extreme market conditions [3][6]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw gold T D contracts drop by 2.49% to 1096.99 CNY/kg, while silver T D contracts fell by 8.62% to 18201 CNY/kg, with some contracts nearing the limit down [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for January showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 70,000, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.4% to 4.3% and hourly wages increasing by 0.4% [3][4]. - These strong employment figures led to a sharp decrease in the probability of a Fed rate cut in March, dropping from 20% to 8%, with the first expected cut now pushed to July [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market experienced a "liquidity squeeze" as investors sold off gold and silver to cover losses from the stock market, which saw significant declines in major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [6]. - Technical factors exacerbated the price drop, as gold had previously risen 28% in January, leading to a chain reaction of stop-loss orders being triggered when prices fell below key psychological levels [6]. - Silver's decline was more severe due to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, with concerns over industrial demand following a drop in global manufacturing PMI [6]. Group 4: Broader Market Impact - Other precious and industrial metals also saw declines, with platinum down 3.2% to $1895/oz and palladium down 2.8% to $2150/oz [7]. - The broader commodity market faced selling pressure, with copper and aluminum prices also falling [7]. Group 5: Asset Reallocation - There was a noticeable shift in investor behavior, with U.S. Treasury bonds gaining favor as gold and silver prices fell, leading to a drop in 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields [9]. - The dollar index rose by 0.6% to 104.8, indicating a reallocation of assets from precious metals to traditional safe havens like U.S. debt [9]. Group 6: ETF Movements - Significant outflows were observed in gold and silver ETFs, with SPDR Gold Shares experiencing an outflow of $870 million and a reduction in holdings by 14.3 tons [9]. - iShares Silver Trust saw outflows of $320 million, with holdings decreasing by 285 tons, marking the largest single-day outflow for precious metal ETFs in 2026 [9]. Group 7: Institutional Insights - Citibank reported that global gold allocation as a percentage of GDP reached 0.7%, the highest in 55 years, suggesting potential future adjustments if this ratio returns to historical norms [10].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that in a bear market, trading often leads to losses, while in a bull market, there is a risk of missing out on gains [1] - The current financial environment shows a balanced and slightly loose liquidity, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 113.5 billion yuan through reverse repos [3] - The interbank funding rates have decreased, with DR001 at approximately 1.26% and DR007 at around 1.43% [3] Group 2 - The stock market is showing weak performance, with financial data for January meeting expectations and interest rates fluctuating [5] - Recent developments in the US stock market have caused a decline, with AI advancements previously seen as beneficial now leading to caution among investors [6] - The bond market experienced volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield initially opening lower at 1.7675% before rising to around 1.78% [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with a sharp decline followed by a rebound, indicating a technical correction rather than a trend reversal [1][5]. Market Performance - On February 13, gold opened with minor fluctuations in the Asian session, trading between $5050 and $5080, before plummeting by $200 to a low of $4877 during the U.S. session, ultimately closing at $4920 [1][5]. - The market attributed the gold price drop to two non-traditional drivers: panic in the AI sector leading to sell-offs in gold to cover losses in tech stocks, and a decrease in geopolitical risk premium due to potential agreements between the U.S. and Iran, as well as easing sanctions on Venezuela [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently near a critical trend line, with a downward crossover in hourly moving averages suggesting a potential short-term adjustment. Key price levels to watch include the $5000 mark and the rebound high of $4980 [6][7]. - If gold fails to reclaim the $5000 level, further negative impacts from the previous drop are likely. Support levels to monitor include $4940-$4930 and $4900 [6][7]. Upcoming Economic Data - The market is focused on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set to be released at 21:30, which is expected to influence gold prices significantly. A CPI result that meets or falls below expectations could restore interest rate cut bets, benefiting gold [2][4][6]. Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold at $4985-$4990 with a stop loss at $5005, targeting a drop to the $4850-$4800 range. If the data is favorable and gold stabilizes above $5000, a long position could be considered with targets of $5150-$5200 [3][7].

来源：老黄说交易 今天黄金怎么看？ 昨晚黄金白银突然暴跌，黄金最大跌幅近200美元，白银跌超10美元，发生了什么？ 核心导火索是"AI恐慌"触发的美股暴跌，导致投资者抛售金银换取流动性。 另外金价跌破5000美元后触发大量止损单，量化基金（CTA）的算法抛售加剧了崩盘式跳水。 美伊谈判及放松对委内瑞拉制裁，削弱了短期避险需求。 很多朋友都很关心能否持有黄金过春节？ 我认为是可以的，尤其长线和实物黄金持有者。 为什么这么说？ 总结下来就是，春节期间震荡或震荡向上的概率大，长期持有者不用过于担心。 但如果你是短线持有者，那么你还是要看看位置，目前国际金价压力位在5100附近，短期想要冲破有一定难度，如果你的进场位置高，可以在高 位先出来。 下方支撑在4600-4800区域，如果你的进场位置在这个区域内，春节期间还是相对安全的。 1. 央妈连续15个月增持黄金，2026年全球央行及主权基金对黄金需求依旧存在。 2. 美元贬值趋势没有改变。 3. 中东就是一颗定时炸弹，一旦冲突升级，黄金随时可以起飞。 4. 月线上黄金属于阴转阳，本月想要大跌有一定难度，日线也更倾向于震荡，或震荡上行走势。 老规矩，先给各位老表，汇报 ...

长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：非农强化延迟降息叠加AI恐慌致全球股市抛售，隔夜伦铝收跌 0.63%；国内 春节前下游多放假停产，交易停滞、铝锭社库累积，今现铝或下跌。 【铝期货市场】：非农强化延迟降息叠加AI恐慌致全球股市抛售，隔夜伦铝高台跳水，盘面偏弱收 跌，最新收盘报价3098美元/吨，收跌19美元，跌幅0.63%，成交量29507手增加10501手，持仓量670421 手减少2664手。晚间沪铝开高开后窄幅下行，尾盘跌幅扩大，主力月2603合约最新收盘价报23395元/ 吨，跌215元，跌幅0.91%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月12日伦铝最新库存量报483550公吨，较上个交易日减少2200公吨，跌幅 0.45%。 长江铝业网讯：2月12日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报23360元/吨，涨100元；广东现货A00铝锭价 报23450元/吨，涨50元。 宏观层面，因投资者情绪恶化及其他金融市场暴跌影响，各类金属价格普遍下跌。而软件和科技股再遭 抛售，美国主要股指全线走低；同时，强劲的美国劳动力市场数据降低了市场对央行降息的预期，美元 指数反弹走强，金、铜领跌，铝价随后跟跌。盛宝银行策略主管奥勒 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：AI恐慌升级，美股大跌疑似引发金属的算法卖盘，金价回落；美国三大 股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收 益率跌7.04个基点报4.100%；美元指数跌0.02%报96.91，离岸人民币对美元升值报 6.899；COMEX黄金期货跌3.08%报4941.4美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1126.12，现货1122.82，基差-3.3，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：美国就业数据疲软叠加AI恐慌，芝商所和上期所再上调保证金，金价回 落；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体下跌， 10年期美债收益率跌9.34个基点报4.180%；美元指数涨0.34%报97.96，离岸人民币 对美元贬值报6.9409；COMEX黄金期货跌3.08%报4798.10美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1105.76，现货1104.8，基差-0.96，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单104052 千克，增加1020千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注美国2月密 ...