美联储12月议息会议如期降息25个基点后，华尔街主要投行维持了对未来降息的预期，认为尽管决议带 有一定鹰派色彩，但整体基调并非市场此前担忧的强硬立场。 华尔街主要投行在决议后维持对后续降息的预期。摩根系与花旗预测，明年1月将再次降息，他们判断 宽松周期尚未结束。高盛与巴克莱分析称，政策声明中的鹰派措辞旨在"平衡"本次降息，避免释放过度 宽松信号。 此次决议也反映出美联储内部的显著分歧。联邦公开市场委员会的投票结果为9比3，反对票数为2019年 以来最多，凸显货币政策路径仍存争议。政策声明中恢复了"将考虑未来调整的程度与时机"的措辞，主 席鲍威尔亦多次强调"处于可以等待下一步行动的有利位置"，均表明美联储已转向更为审慎的"数据依 赖"模式。 明年降息成主流预测 市场对美联储2025年降息路径仍存在显著分歧，但多数机构维持明年1月降息的预期。 花旗、摩根士丹利及摩根大通均将首次降息时点指向明年1月，其中花旗预计3月将再次降息，摩根士丹 利判断4月跟进第二次降息，而摩根大通则认为此后政策将进入观察期。 在新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了双重使命，并强调由于缺乏增量数据，就业和通胀预期变化 不大。他明确表示，关于 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 证券研究报告 美联储 12 月降息的关键信息及其影响 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003674 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 美联储 12 月 9-10 日举行议息会议1，FOMC 官员投票下调联邦基金利率 25bp 至 3.5%-3.75%，这是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第三次降息。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Goolsbee） 倾向于 ...

Market Movements - U.S. stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.65%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.81%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.09% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.35%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.29%, France's CAC40 up by 1.23%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.55% [1] - WTI crude oil is up by 0.34%, priced at $64.27 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up by 0.28%, priced at $68.14 per barrel [1][2] Market News - Small-cap stocks are regaining focus as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts rise, with the Russell 2000 index rising by 2.1% to 2453.36 points, marking its first breach of the historical closing high since November 2021 [3] - Despite the Fed's rate cut, market volatility is expected to increase due to uncertainty about future rate cuts, with significant internal disagreements within the Fed regarding policy outlook for 2026 [4] Corporate News - 71% of U.S. CEOs express concerns that tariffs are damaging businesses, highlighting frustrations with the current business environment during a closed-door meeting at Yale [5] - Deutsche Bank raises its forecast for the average gold price in 2026 to $4000 per ounce, citing continued demand from central banks and the impact of Fed rate cuts [5] Individual Stocks - Novo Nordisk's stock jumps nearly 7% after its diabetes drug Ozempic shows superior cardiovascular protection compared to Eli Lilly's Trulicity, with a 23% lower risk of heart attack, stroke, or death for Ozempic users [6] - FedEx's upcoming earnings report is seen as a critical indicator for the sustainability of the current bull market, amid concerns over the divergence between industrial and transportation indices [6] - Bullish reports a significant earnings increase, with Q2 EPS at $0.93, surpassing market expectations, and shares rise nearly 9% [7] - Palantir commits to investing £1.5 billion in the UK and secures a £750 million contract with the UK Ministry of Defence [7] - Roche acquires 89bio for up to $3.5 billion to expand into the weight loss drug market, with 89bio's key drug targeting metabolic diseases [8][9] - Arvinas partners with Pfizer to commercialize a breast cancer drug, with shares rising over 2% [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has led to initial market gains, but investor sentiment quickly cooled following Chairman Powell's description of the move as a "risk management" decision [1][2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the outlook for policy in 2026, which may lead to increased market volatility in the coming year [1][4] - The market's mixed reaction is attributed to uncertainty about the future interest rate path, with the S&P 500 index ultimately closing down despite initial gains [5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's focus on the weakening labor market is becoming more pronounced, with concerns about potential downward spirals in employment and upward pressures on prices [2][4] - Economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve indicate stronger nominal economic growth and lower unemployment rates for 2026, yet only one rate cut is planned, creating a contradictory signal [4] - The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for October 28, with investors closely watching upcoming economic data, particularly initial jobless claims [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating potential future rate cuts depending on mid-term inflation pressures and global economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The RBNZ's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects a cautious approach towards the current economic outlook, despite some members advocating for a reduction to 3% to support economic activity [1]. - The current inflation rate in New Zealand stands at 2.5%, which is above the RBNZ's target range of 1%-3% [1]. - The RBNZ anticipates that the annual consumer price inflation rate may rise to the upper limit of the target range by mid-2025 but is expected to gradually decline to around 2% by early 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The RBNZ acknowledges that global policy uncertainties, rising trade protectionism, and tariff issues are hindering economic growth and may delay New Zealand's economic recovery [1]. - Analysts suggest that the market has already priced in the RBNZ's decision, with future focus shifting to the bank's assessments of inflation, tariffs, and global economic data [2]. - The RBNZ's future monetary policy will adopt a "data-dependent" approach, with upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical changes being crucial for decision-making [2].

Group 1 - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has risen again due to cooling employment and inflation data in the U.S. [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 247,000, exceeding market expectations and reaching the highest level in eight months, indicating a slowdown in the job market [1] - The core Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased by 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.1%, further supporting the view of a cooling economy [1] Group 2 - The persistent high interest rates are causing structural pressures on the U.S. economy, particularly affecting investment in interest-sensitive sectors like manufacturing and real estate [2] - High financing costs are forcing some companies to delay equipment upgrades and capacity expansion plans, while households are burdened by rigid interest payments on mortgages and auto loans, leading to reduced disposable income [2] - The combination of weak demand and stagnant supply is weakening the growth momentum of the U.S. economy, with rising government debt interest burdens further constraining fiscal policy space [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve prioritizes maintaining price stability over short-term economic pain, influenced by historical lessons from the 1970s stagflation [3] - The Fed's unusual caution in the face of inflation risks reflects a deep-seated dilemma within the monetary policy framework, as current core inflation remains above the 2% target [2][3] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a rare contradiction, with simultaneous labor shortages and increased layoffs, complicating the traditional monetary policy response [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is facing the consequences of previous policy misjudgments during the pandemic, which has led to an overly tight monetary policy to restore credibility [4] - The misalignment of political and business cycles forces monetary policy to address structural issues that should be handled by fiscal policy, complicating the decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [4] - The Fed's cautious approach reflects a fear of reigniting inflation while also being wary of an economic slowdown leading to recession, indicating the limitations of a single monetary policy tool in navigating complex economic realities [4]