Economic Data - July economic data showed significant decline, with fixed asset investment down 0.63% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, totaling 288,229 billion RMB[12] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year, amounting to 53,580 billion RMB, with residential investment down 10.9%[12] - Social retail sales in July reached 38,780 billion RMB, growing 3.7% year-on-year, while retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 4.3%[12] Financial Trends - Non-bank financial institutions saw a deposit increase of 2.14 trillion RMB in July, reflecting a trend of residents moving deposits towards financial products[13] - Total deposits increased by 500 billion RMB in July, with household deposits decreasing by 1.1 trillion RMB[13] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasized the need to prevent fund diversion, indicating potential delays in interest rate cuts[1] Market Outlook - The central bank's recent actions, including a buyout-style reverse repo, led to a rapid rise in ten-year government bond yields to 1.75%, indicating a steepening yield curve[1] - The report suggests maintaining a cautious stance until the "weak reality" and "strong expectations" converge[1] - The upcoming fiscal policies include personal consumption loan subsidies, which may enhance consumer spending and support economic recovery[10]

报告导读： 消息面上，工信部将推出钢铁、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案 ，着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。该消息提振市场情绪，期价再 次出现了脉冲式上涨。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所下降，厂库下降，社库继续回升，总库存上升，表观需求环比继续 回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。目前板块需求明显好于建材需求。从需求的季节性规律看，随着高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱， 且库存预计将会进一步回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和强预期 ，对政策的乐观预期也有所加强。从技术上看，期价止跌回升，延续了 之前的中期上行趋势，短线偏强运行。 操作建议： 暂时维持观望，调整之后可逢低做多，谨慎追涨， 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月21日08时15分 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 目前钢厂盈利率尚可，样本钢厂盈利面接近 60%，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 242.2 万吨，环比上周上升了 2.4 万吨。目前市场处于消费淡季，预计 近期铁水产量将有所回落。供应端，全球发运处于相对高位且在沿着季节性回升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in black - series commodity prices may not be sustainable as the main goal of the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing rather than supply - side reform in the black and building materials industries. The real estate market is still bottoming out, and the economy in May was slightly below expectations, though the PMI in June improved. The current market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory in ports exerts pressure on futures prices. However, in the short term, driven by the rise in prices of products like rebar and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Perception of Policy**: The market misinterpreted the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a signal for a new round of supply - side reform in the black industry, but the actual target is downstream manufacturing [2]. - **Real Estate Market**: In May, housing prices in all tiers declined month - on - month. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening compared to the previous month, indicating that the real estate market is still bottoming out [2]. - **Economic Data**: The economic data in May was slightly below expectations, while the PMI data in June improved month - on - month [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, rebar production increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and total inventories decreased slightly. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventories may rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rally, the futures price adjusted, indicating significant resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when prices rise. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then go short at high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3061 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day and up 2.14% from the previous week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 221.08 tons, up 1.49% from the previous week; hot - rolled coil production was 328.14 tons, up 0.28% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties' social inventory increased by 1.06% from the previous week, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 2.24% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Production and Demand Outlook**: Currently, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory in ports exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Short - Term Trend**: Driven by the rise in prices of products like rebar and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range volatile pattern and a long - term downward cycle. After a short - term rally, it declined, indicating significant resistance above [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, be cautious about chasing up, and the medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then go short at high prices [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The DCE iron ore主力合约结算价 was 731 yuan/dry ton, down 0.20% from the previous day and up 2.17% from the previous week [6]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from the previous week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.37% from the previous week, and the port trade ore inventory decreased by 0.15% [6]. 3.3 Industry News - Coal production in the first five months of this year reached 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 110 million tons, while coal imports decreased by 7.9% [8]. - From January to now, the global new ship order volume has decreased by 54% year - on - year. The new shipbuilding markets for container ships, cruise ships, and ferries remain active, while investment in gas ships and oil tankers has slowed down [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the global iron ore shipments were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous period [8]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi, with a production capacity of 900,000 tons, resumed production on July 5 after a 15 - day shutdown, but its output is still below the normal level [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.355 million tons, an increase of 1.22 million tons from the previous period [9]. - As of July 7, 16 blast furnaces in Tangshan steel enterprises were under maintenance, with a daily hot metal impact of about 39,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 91.36%, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [9].