Economic Data - July economic data showed significant decline, with fixed asset investment down 0.63% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, totaling 288,229 billion RMB[12] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year, amounting to 53,580 billion RMB, with residential investment down 10.9%[12] - Social retail sales in July reached 38,780 billion RMB, growing 3.7% year-on-year, while retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 4.3%[12] Financial Trends - Non-bank financial institutions saw a deposit increase of 2.14 trillion RMB in July, reflecting a trend of residents moving deposits towards financial products[13] - Total deposits increased by 500 billion RMB in July, with household deposits decreasing by 1.1 trillion RMB[13] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasized the need to prevent fund diversion, indicating potential delays in interest rate cuts[1] Market Outlook - The central bank's recent actions, including a buyout-style reverse repo, led to a rapid rise in ten-year government bond yields to 1.75%, indicating a steepening yield curve[1] - The report suggests maintaining a cautious stance until the "weak reality" and "strong expectations" converge[1] - The upcoming fiscal policies include personal consumption loan subsidies, which may enhance consumer spending and support economic recovery[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently trading on the combination of weak reality and strong expectations, with an increasing optimistic expectation for policies. The demand for the plate sector is significantly better than that for building materials, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise [2]. - For iron ore, the market is in the off - season of consumption, and iron - water production is expected to decline in the near future. The supply is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Although the decline in port inventory supports the futures price, the inventory of traded ores at ports is relatively high. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, including steel, which boosts market sentiment and causes a pulse - like increase in futures prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: This week, the production of threaded rods decreased, factory inventory declined, social inventory continued to rise, and total inventory increased. Apparent demand continued to decline week - on - week, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices stopped falling and rebounded, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing short - term strength [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider buying on dips after adjustments, and be cautious about chasing high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as their spot prices, all increased to varying degrees compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils showed different changes [2]. - **Production**: The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, while the production of electric - arc furnace threaded rods increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products increased, with an increase in threaded rod social inventory and a decrease in hot - rolled coil social inventory. Factory inventory decreased [2]. - **Market Transactions**: The trading volume of construction steel in the spot market decreased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with the profitable steel - mill ratio close to 60%. Iron - water production increased last week but is expected to decline in the near future. The global shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the inventory of traded ores at ports is relatively high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices rose strongly, breaking through multiple resistance levels [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing high prices, and wait patiently for a pull - back before buying on dips [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of various iron - ore powders at ports and futures settlement prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease [4]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and futures monthly spreads of iron ore changed to varying degrees [4]. - **Shipment and Arrival**: Australian and Brazilian iron - ore shipments showed different trends, and the arrival volume at northern six ports decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore at sample steel mills decreased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, including steel, to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [2][7]. - The China Iron and Steel Association proposed five suggestions at the Steel Industry Planning Ministerial Meeting, including controlling incremental capacity, strengthening data governance, promoting the development of short - process electric - arc furnace steelmaking, etc. [7]. - Canada will expand the scope of import steel tariff quotas and tighten existing quotas from August 1st, which is considered a unilateral and protectionist act by China's Ministry of Commerce [7]. - According to Gangyin E - commerce data, the total urban inventory increased this week, with an increase in construction steel inventory and a decrease in hot - rolled coil inventory [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in black - series commodity prices may not be sustainable as the main goal of the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing rather than supply - side reform in the black and building materials industries. The real estate market is still bottoming out, and the economy in May was slightly below expectations, though the PMI in June improved. The current market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory in ports exerts pressure on futures prices. However, in the short term, driven by the rise in prices of products like rebar and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Perception of Policy**: The market misinterpreted the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a signal for a new round of supply - side reform in the black industry, but the actual target is downstream manufacturing [2]. - **Real Estate Market**: In May, housing prices in all tiers declined month - on - month. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening compared to the previous month, indicating that the real estate market is still bottoming out [2]. - **Economic Data**: The economic data in May was slightly below expectations, while the PMI data in June improved month - on - month [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, rebar production increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and total inventories decreased slightly. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventories may rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rally, the futures price adjusted, indicating significant resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when prices rise. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then go short at high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3061 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day and up 2.14% from the previous week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 221.08 tons, up 1.49% from the previous week; hot - rolled coil production was 328.14 tons, up 0.28% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties' social inventory increased by 1.06% from the previous week, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 2.24% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Production and Demand Outlook**: Currently, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory in ports exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Short - Term Trend**: Driven by the rise in prices of products like rebar and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range volatile pattern and a long - term downward cycle. After a short - term rally, it declined, indicating significant resistance above [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, be cautious about chasing up, and the medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then go short at high prices [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The DCE iron ore主力合约结算价 was 731 yuan/dry ton, down 0.20% from the previous day and up 2.17% from the previous week [6]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from the previous week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.37% from the previous week, and the port trade ore inventory decreased by 0.15% [6]. 3.3 Industry News - Coal production in the first five months of this year reached 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 110 million tons, while coal imports decreased by 7.9% [8]. - From January to now, the global new ship order volume has decreased by 54% year - on - year. The new shipbuilding markets for container ships, cruise ships, and ferries remain active, while investment in gas ships and oil tankers has slowed down [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the global iron ore shipments were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous period [8]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi, with a production capacity of 900,000 tons, resumed production on July 5 after a 15 - day shutdown, but its output is still below the normal level [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.355 million tons, an increase of 1.22 million tons from the previous period [9]. - As of July 7, 16 blast furnaces in Tangshan steel enterprises were under maintenance, with a daily hot metal impact of about 39,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 91.36%, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [9].