期货研究报告 2025年12月22日 周报 铜："强预期"与"弱现实"的博弈 弈 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周沪铜市场维持高位震荡格局，周五在美国通胀数据超预期下滑的刺激下， 降息预期再次上升，铜价回弹。产业层面多空交织，矿端供应极度紧张，2026年铜精矿长单加工费敲 定为0美元/吨，市场进入"零加工费时代"。而高铜价显著抑制下游需求，国内社会库存累积，电解 铜现货转为贴水，下游加工企业开工率普遍下滑。 一方面，矿端紧缺导致的刚性供应约束与全球流动性宽松的宏观基调未变，为铜价提供了强劲的 底部支撑。另一方面，当前正值传统消费淡季，高企的铜价已显著抑制下游采购意愿，使铜价承压。 目前铜价上有压力，下有支撑，短期将维持高位震荡格局。本周将公布美国三季度GDP数据以及三季度 核心PCE物价指数，如数据显著弱于预期，将提振降息预期，给铜价带来新的上行驱动力。 关注因素：美国三季度GDP及PCE物价指数、下游需求变动情况 | | 单位 | 本周最新 | 上周同期 | 周度环比 | 周度环比 | 频率 | | --- | --- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 11, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the trend of ferroalloys has mainly followed the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions has gradually disappeared, and the bearish factor restricting coking coal has also diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after the decline, also rebounded. The decline in ferroalloy production profits is expected to weaken the drive for further production increases. With the arrival of the normal water season, the output in the southern silicon-manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for a short-term rise in ferroalloys. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long-term trading logic still lies in the "anti-involution" expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are still expectations for supply-side contraction. The market's long-short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The market expects that the supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese, semi-coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, making it cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract price difference of the two silicons at -400. However, without substantial progress and actions in "anti-involution," there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline. It is recommended to lightly test long positions near 5450 for the ferrosilicon main 11 contract and near 5700 for the silicon-manganese main 01 contract [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.78%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 34.7% - Silicon-manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 29.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The recent trend of ferroalloys follows the price of coking coal. After the military parade, the production restriction logic for steel mills has faded, and the bearish factor for coking coal has diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products like polysilicon and coking coal, causing ferroalloys near the cost line to rebound. The decline in production profits is expected to limit further production increases, and the output in southern silicon-manganese production areas will decline with the normal water season. The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, while that of coking coal has not. The long-term trading logic is based on the "anti-involution" expectation, and the market's long-short logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease, and it is cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. However, without substantial "anti-involution" progress, there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline [4] Bullish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon-manganese**: The government's control policies on high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon-manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi-carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton-degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton-degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October. Attention should be paid to the impact on manganese ore prices and silicon-manganese costs [6] Bearish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.88%. The demand for ferrosilicon in the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon-manganese**: In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the overall black sector is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon-manganese demand. Silicon-manganese enterprise inventory is 160,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.72%. The demand for silicon-manganese in the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.37% [7] Ferrosilicon Daily Data - Data includes ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [8] Silicon-manganese Daily Data - Data includes silicon-manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [9][10] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Data - The report provides term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon-manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][34]