Core Viewpoint - Baillie Gifford, established in 1908, has successfully navigated various economic cycles and has become a prominent investment giant by accurately betting on high-growth companies in the 21st century, such as Amazon, Tesla, and Nvidia [2][5]. Investment Philosophy - Baillie Gifford's investment philosophy emphasizes long-term growth potential, focusing on a framework called "10 Questions for Due Diligence" that assesses companies based on their competitive advantages, corporate culture, social contributions, growth potential, and capital allocation [7][16]. Due Diligence Framework - The "10 Questions" framework includes inquiries about revenue growth, future changes, competitive advantages, cultural uniqueness, user satisfaction, profitability, capital distribution, market valuation, and the reasons for potential undervaluation [10][16]. - This approach prioritizes long-term factors over short-term metrics, allowing for a deeper understanding of a company's future potential rather than relying solely on historical data [16][17]. Case Study: ASML - ASML, a leading photolithography equipment manufacturer, has a dominant market share of 70%-80% and is crucial for advancing semiconductor technology, particularly through its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines [18][19]. - Baillie Gifford's investment in ASML began in 1996, and the company is viewed as essential for maintaining the momentum of Moore's Law, which predicts the doubling of transistors on a chip approximately every two years [29][30]. - ASML's corporate culture is characterized by a competitive spirit, aiming for leadership in the industry, and the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years [30][31]. Recent Developments - Despite ASML's strong historical performance, recent market conditions have led to a reduction in Baillie Gifford's holdings in the company, reflecting concerns over future growth amid changing industry dynamics and leadership transitions [31].

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge and is better prepared to handle future economic shocks [1] - The Monetary Policy Committee has gained significant insights into economic activity, corporate pricing behavior, and the evolution of inflation expectations during periods of high inflation and economic volatility [1] Summary by Categories - **Economic Understanding** - The Reserve Bank has developed a deeper understanding of structural drivers of inflation and supply shocks [1] - Enhanced use of high-frequency data allows for more timely and precise monitoring of economic conditions [1] - **Policy Tools** - New tools have been developed for estimating neutral interest rates and conducting scenario analysis [1] - These improvements ensure that the Monetary Policy Committee can maintain price stability while effectively navigating future economic shocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that scenario analysis is very useful and the Federal Reserve will discuss the idea of scenario analysis this fall [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is considering the implementation of scenario analysis as a tool for economic assessment [1] - Powell's personal endorsement of scenario analysis indicates a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's analytical approach [1] - The discussion scheduled for this fall suggests that the Federal Reserve is actively seeking to enhance its economic forecasting methods [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that scenario analysis is very useful [1] Group 1 - Powell emphasizes the importance of scenario analysis in understanding economic conditions and making informed decisions [1]

英国央行副行长布里登：情景分析推动更优政策结果。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ben Broadbent, emphasized the significant role of scenario analysis in policy-making [1] Group 1 - Scenario analysis is crucial for understanding potential economic outcomes and informing monetary policy decisions [1] - The Bank of England utilizes scenario analysis to assess the impact of various economic conditions on inflation and growth [1] - Broadbent highlighted that scenario analysis helps in preparing for unexpected economic shocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Swedish Central Bank, Stefan Ingves, stated that their scenario analysis does not indicate any extreme negative outcomes, suggesting that waiting a few months before taking action will not make a significant difference [1] Group 1 - The central bank's analysis reflects a stable outlook, indicating no immediate need for drastic measures [1] - The decision to delay action is based on the assessment that current economic conditions are manageable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of scenario analysis is emphasized in the context of high uncertainty, as stated by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller [1] Group 1 - Scenario analysis is particularly crucial in environments characterized by significant uncertainty [1]