去年四季度以来，多套苯乙烯装置进入检修停车状态。在目前仍停车的5套装置中，仅泉州中化的45万 吨／年装置计划于1月底复产，其余装置尚未有明确复产计划。因此，即便近期苯乙烯利润有所改善， 短期内也难以带动开工负荷及产量出现明显提升。 由于苯乙烯行业开工负荷下降，市场供应趋紧，整体进入去库存周期。截至1月12日，江苏苯乙烯港口 样本库存为10.06万吨，较前一周下降3.17万吨，环比降幅达23.96%；苯乙烯商品库存为5.99万吨，较上 一统计周期下降1.74万吨，环比下降22.51%。库存下降幅度超出预期，成为近期苯乙烯价格反弹较为显 著的重要原因。不过，与去年同期相比，目前苯乙烯库存仍处于偏高水平。 成本难以向下传导 当前来看，苯乙烯行业开工率处于偏低水平，库存降幅超出预期，叠加内外宏观环境改善，预计其反弹 态势有望延续。 开工负荷处于低位 2026年1月，受伊朗、委内瑞拉等地缘局势动荡影响，国际原油价格触底反弹，带动化工品成本整体抬 升，苯乙烯价格亦随之回升。值得关注的是，苯乙烯价格涨幅明显高于其上游原料纯苯，推动其利润扩 大至每吨300元左右。然而，尽管盈利空间有所改善，苯乙烯行业整体开工负荷却仍处于较低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The LPG deep processing industry is facing significant challenges due to weak downstream product performance, driven by multiple factors including declining crude oil prices, increased supply pressure, weak terminal demand, and export obstacles. Some products have stabilized temporarily through production cuts in mid to late April [1]. Industry Summary - In April, the LPG raw gas market exhibited a "rise then fall" trend, with limited month-on-month changes. Initial market optimism was driven by policy expectations, but this was later overshadowed by cost declines and weak demand [2]. - The prices of LPG deep processing downstream products generally declined in April, influenced by international crude oil price fluctuations and exacerbated supply-demand imbalances. The market remains in a state of oversupply, with significant year-on-year price drops for many products [4]. - The profit situation across various products in the LPG deep processing chain varied significantly in April. The industry is under pressure from both high costs and weak demand, leading to a negative feedback loop that compresses profit margins [7]. - The operating load rates of LPG downstream facilities have generally shown a downward trend due to high raw material costs and weak terminal product prices, forcing companies to reduce output or halt operations [9]. - Looking ahead, the LPG raw gas market is expected to remain weak, with cost pressures from international crude oil prices and cautious purchasing sentiment limiting demand. However, supply reductions due to maintenance or losses may support short-term price rebounds for some products [11].