Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. There are concerns about supply - demand imbalances in the market, with factors like OPEC+增产, device maintenance, and changes in production and sales affecting the prices and market trends of these products [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Crude Oil and Naphtha**: On September 23, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.41 per barrel, up 1.81%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.63 per barrel, up 1.59%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% [1] - **PX Prices**: The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $803 per ton, down 0.66%. CZCE PX contracts also showed a decline, with the main - contract closing price at 6530 yuan/ton, down 0.94% [1] - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4556 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4470 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [1] - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5718 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5710 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [1] Operating Conditions - For the PX industry, the operating rate on September 23, 2025, was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value. The PTA factory load rate was 79.38%, up 2.56 percentage points [1] - The load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 89.00%, 74.19%, and 67.55% respectively. The production - sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased [1] Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, and Iraq and the Kurdish region have reached a preliminary agreement to restart the oil pipeline. The expected increase in crude oil supply of 230,000 barrels per day has intensified concerns about supply over - capacity. The global supply - surplus expectation for PX is strengthening, and its cost support is insufficient. There is an obvious increase in PX supply due to short - process capacity expansion and postponed device maintenance, while demand has decreased due to delayed new PTA device production and multiple PTA device maintenance [2] - **PTA**: With insufficient cost support, the TA2601 contract closed at 4556 yuan/ton. The global supply - surplus expectation is strengthening, and PTA operating conditions are a mix of start - up and load reduction. The market's bearish sentiment dominates, and the production and sales of polyester products are mediocre [2] - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures are weakly volatile. The supply side has sufficient market supply, and downstream terminals are replenishing stocks at low prices, with a fair trading atmosphere [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - During the week from September 8 - 12, 2025, the PTA price in the futures market showed an oscillating correction, and the TA spot price was mainly adjusted oscillatingly affected by international oil prices. The operating rate of TA factories rebounded to around 75%, with an expected increase in supply. The current main contradiction in the market is the insufficient demand for crude oil, and the weak rebound momentum of crude oil may affect the rebound of TA prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - Due to weak energy prices and technical support, international oil prices were weak, failing to support futures prices. The PTA main 01 contract fell 0.51%, with the highest price reaching 4712 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4620 yuan/ton, finally closing at 4648 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the PTA main 01 contract continued to decline, and market enthusiasm continued to weaken [2]. 1.2 Variety Market - The weekly PTA futures market continued to show a situation where far - month contracts were relatively strong, with far - month prices remaining relatively stable above 4700 yuan/ton. The price of TA2510 was relatively low, indicating weak spot prices. With high inventory levels and weak international energy, near - month contracts may continue to be weak [4]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market Conditions - The PTA spot market in East China showed range - bound oscillations. The decline of TA spot prices slowed down. The negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was cautious, with few actual purchases from the polyester end. The basis was weakly operating, and the offer of main port goods was about 75 yuan/ton lower than the futures TA2601. The spot negotiation price was between 4580 - 4630 yuan/ton [6][7]. 2.2 Basis Data - The spot price remained weak, with a negative and relatively weak basis, and the futures price was at a premium. High PTA inventory and insufficient cost support from international oil prices led to a relatively pessimistic spot market. Far - month contracts had price premiums due to higher energy demand in the cold season [8]. 2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered PTA warehouse receipts continued to decline, and the decline accelerated. As of September 12, it dropped to 9893 lots. Besides seasonal factors, the continuous decrease in warehouse receipts reflected insufficient hedging motivation and increased warehouse receipt cancellation [10]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Fundamental Influencing Factors - Although TA inventory was being reduced, the supply of TA rebounded, and the future inventory reduction efficiency might decrease. With insufficient energy cost support and weak demand, crude oil prices oscillated weakly, and the upward momentum of energy was insufficient, which might suppress the rebound of TA prices. The operating rate of factories rebounded, and supply might increase after the maintenance in some areas was completed [12]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The buying power on the weekly K - line was insufficient, and the trading volume shrank, indicating weak follow - up. The main 01 contract might continue to oscillate and consolidate, with weakened technical support. The main risk was the insufficient support of energy prices, which might drive the TA market down [13]. 4. Market Outlook - Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the expected influence on the TA market was expanding. In the short term, the price would mainly fluctuate with energy, and in the long term, it might trade based on the interest - rate cut logic. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, market expectations might gradually improve. However, due to weak overseas energy prices and insufficient technical support, TA still faced adjustment pressure. With weak crude oil prices and high inventory levels, the PTA futures market was expected to continue to oscillate [15][17].