Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - During the week from September 8 - 12, 2025, the PTA price in the futures market showed an oscillating correction, and the TA spot price was mainly adjusted oscillatingly affected by international oil prices. The operating rate of TA factories rebounded to around 75%, with an expected increase in supply. The current main contradiction in the market is the insufficient demand for crude oil, and the weak rebound momentum of crude oil may affect the rebound of TA prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - Due to weak energy prices and technical support, international oil prices were weak, failing to support futures prices. The PTA main 01 contract fell 0.51%, with the highest price reaching 4712 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4620 yuan/ton, finally closing at 4648 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the PTA main 01 contract continued to decline, and market enthusiasm continued to weaken [2]. 1.2 Variety Market - The weekly PTA futures market continued to show a situation where far - month contracts were relatively strong, with far - month prices remaining relatively stable above 4700 yuan/ton. The price of TA2510 was relatively low, indicating weak spot prices. With high inventory levels and weak international energy, near - month contracts may continue to be weak [4]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market Conditions - The PTA spot market in East China showed range - bound oscillations. The decline of TA spot prices slowed down. The negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was cautious, with few actual purchases from the polyester end. The basis was weakly operating, and the offer of main port goods was about 75 yuan/ton lower than the futures TA2601. The spot negotiation price was between 4580 - 4630 yuan/ton [6][7]. 2.2 Basis Data - The spot price remained weak, with a negative and relatively weak basis, and the futures price was at a premium. High PTA inventory and insufficient cost support from international oil prices led to a relatively pessimistic spot market. Far - month contracts had price premiums due to higher energy demand in the cold season [8]. 2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered PTA warehouse receipts continued to decline, and the decline accelerated. As of September 12, it dropped to 9893 lots. Besides seasonal factors, the continuous decrease in warehouse receipts reflected insufficient hedging motivation and increased warehouse receipt cancellation [10]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Fundamental Influencing Factors - Although TA inventory was being reduced, the supply of TA rebounded, and the future inventory reduction efficiency might decrease. With insufficient energy cost support and weak demand, crude oil prices oscillated weakly, and the upward momentum of energy was insufficient, which might suppress the rebound of TA prices. The operating rate of factories rebounded, and supply might increase after the maintenance in some areas was completed [12]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The buying power on the weekly K - line was insufficient, and the trading volume shrank, indicating weak follow - up. The main 01 contract might continue to oscillate and consolidate, with weakened technical support. The main risk was the insufficient support of energy prices, which might drive the TA market down [13]. 4. Market Outlook - Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the expected influence on the TA market was expanding. In the short term, the price would mainly fluctuate with energy, and in the long term, it might trade based on the interest - rate cut logic. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, market expectations might gradually improve. However, due to weak overseas energy prices and insufficient technical support, TA still faced adjustment pressure. With weak crude oil prices and high inventory levels, the PTA futures market was expected to continue to oscillate [15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - During the week of September 8 - 12, 2025, the PTA price in the futures market showed an oscillatory correction. The TA spot price was mainly adjusted oscillatory under the influence of international oil prices. The operating rate of TA factories rebounded to around 75%. There is an expected increase in supply. The current main market contradiction is the insufficient demand for crude oil, and the weak rebound momentum of crude oil may affect the rebound of TA prices [1] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - Due to weak energy prices and technical support, international oil prices are weak, making it difficult to support futures prices. The PTA main 01 contract fell 0.51%, with the highest price reaching 4,712 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4,620 yuan/ton, finally closing at 4,648 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the PTA main 01 contract last week was 2,692,505 lots, and the trading volume continued to decline, with the market enthusiasm weakening [2] 1.2 Variety Market - The weekly PTA futures market continued to show a situation where far - month contracts were relatively strong. The price fluctuations of far - month contracts remained relatively stable, above 4,700 yuan/ton. The price of TA2510 was relatively low, indicating that the spot price was relatively weak, and market pessimism still existed. With a relatively high absolute inventory level and large fundamental market pressure, in the context of weak international energy, near - month contracts may continue to follow the spot to stay weak [4] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market - The PTA market in East China showed a range - bound trend. The decline rate of TA spot slowed down as international oil prices rebounded over the weekend. The negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was cautious, with few actual purchases from the polyester end. The basis was running weakly. The offer of main port goods for this week and next week was at a discount of about 75 yuan/ton to the futures TA2601. The spot negotiation price was between 4,580 - 4,630 yuan/ton. The average basis in major domestic production areas remained around - 80 yuan/ton, and actual procurement was still weak [6][7] 2.2 Basis Data - The spot price remained weak this week, with a negative and relatively weak basis. The futures price was at a premium, and the spot market was relatively pessimistic. On one hand, the absolute inventory level of PTA was still high, and the spot pressure was large. On the other hand, the technical support of international oil prices was insufficient, resulting in insufficient cost support. The far - month contracts had relatively high energy demand in the cold season, promoting price premiums [8] 2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, the number of registered PTA warehouse receipts continued to decline last week, and the decline accelerated. As of September 12, it dropped to 9,893 lots. In addition to seasonal factors, the continuous decrease in warehouse receipts reflects that the current futures - spot price difference and delivery cost are not sufficient to stimulate hedging motivation, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts has increased [10] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Fundamental Influencing Factors - TA inventory has been reduced, but the supply of TA has rebounded, and the efficiency of future inventory reduction may decrease. With insufficient energy cost support and weak demand, crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. In the current weak supply - demand cycle, the upward momentum of energy in the future is insufficient, which may suppress the rebound of TA prices. The operating rate of factories has rebounded, and there may be an increase in supply after the maintenance in some production areas is completed [12] 3.2 Technical Analysis - On the weekly K - line, the buying power is insufficient, the trading volume is shrinking, and the follow - up momentum is weak, which may continue the oscillatory and weak state. The current main 01 contract may continue to oscillate and consolidate, accumulating market momentum, and the technical support has weakened. The main risk is the insufficient support of energy prices, which may drive the TA market to weaken [13] 4. Market Outlook - Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the expected influence on the TA market is gradually expanding. In the short - term, the price will mainly fluctuate with energy. In the long - term, the market may trade based on the logic of interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is increasing, which may gradually improve market expectations. Overseas energy prices are weak, and technically, the support is still weak, so there is still pressure for TA to follow and adjust. Currently, crude oil is relatively weak, and without cost support, it is difficult for TA to achieve a continuous rebound. Considering the uncertainty of crude oil prices and the relatively high inventory level of TA, it is expected that the PTA futures market will continue to oscillate [15][17]

Group 1 - PTA futures have significantly declined, with the main contract reported at 4656.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.06% [1] - As of September 3, 2025, the average processing range for PTA in China is 189.82 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.68% [2] - The current PTA production capacity utilization rate is 70.86%, down 5.36% from the previous week, with domestic PTA output at 1.3129 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous week [3] Group 2 - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall sentiment in commodities is weak, with high oil prices retreating and PX-TA prices following suit. The structural contradictions between PX and TA are expected to dominate the market, maintaining a "tight up and loose down" pattern [4] - Hualian Futures notes that supply pressure has eased due to significant maintenance at large facilities in South and East China, while polyester operating rates remain stable. However, the replenishment of polyester filament shows moderate performance, focusing on consuming existing raw material inventories [4]

Group 1 - Brent crude oil experienced its largest daily increase since 2022, with a surge of 11.3%, reaching $78.5 per barrel, while WTI crude peaked at $74.63 per barrel [2][3] - Iran's oil production stands at 3.3 million barrels per day, with exports between 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4% of global production [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to impact oil exports, potentially leading to sustained high oil prices [7][8] Group 2 - Experts recommend a cautious approach to trading, advising against short positions while awaiting the outcome of negotiations [10] - The polyester market is responding to rising oil prices, with significant price increases observed in various polyester products, indicating a strong market demand despite concerns from downstream buyers [10][11] - The average transaction prices for key materials have shown notable increases, with PX rising by 36 to $854 and PTA rising by 155 to $5010 [15]

Core Viewpoint - PTA futures experienced a decline, with the main contract dropping to 4724.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.96% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Ningzheng Futures indicates that the upward price potential for PTA may be limited due to expected restarts of previously shut-down facilities, a slight increase in domestic supply, and high polyester inventory, leading to cautious downstream purchasing behavior [2] - Southwest Futures suggests a cautious approach to PTA in the short term, noting improvements in supply-demand structure but limited cost support due to fluctuating PX and crude oil prices [3] - New Lake Futures highlights strong support for PTA prices on the downside, with a stable trading atmosphere in the spot market and significant improvements in the balance sheet due to inventory reduction [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply side improvements are noted with the recovery of several PTA production facilities, leading to an increase in PTA load to 76.9% and polyester load rising to 95.3%, indicating a slight recovery in demand [3] - The second quarter is expected to see concentrated maintenance plans for PTA facilities, with no significant production cuts anticipated in the near term, supporting price stability [4] Group 3: Price Trends - The current trading range for PTA spot prices is between 4855 and 4935 yuan, with a stable basis observed in the market [4] - The processing fee for PTA is reported at 355 yuan per ton, with PX prices at 836 USD per ton, indicating cost pressures that may affect pricing strategies [4]