【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面震荡走弱，日内走势受到镍的影响较大，消息面镍矿原料端预期变化，带动不 锈钢市场情绪大幅回落。现货市场伴随期货走跌佛锡两市观望情绪渐起，出货多集中在低价资源，日内 询单及成交均表现较差。昨日印尼能矿部长在公开的业绩发布会中，并未就2026年镍矿配额批量给出明 确结果，这使得此前对矿端供应缩减的预期未能得到落实。近期菲律宾Benguet矿山1.25镍矿招标，尚 未有成交落地，矿山维持看涨心态；印尼下调镍矿配额预期，印尼1月(一期)内贸基准价上涨0.05-0.08美 元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25。原料收紧预期下，近期镍铁价格持续拉涨，主流成交 价格集中在950元/镍附近；铬铁现货资源流通较少，叠加铬铁供应增量放缓，铬铁零售价格仍较坚挺。 供应端压力稍缓，300系排产环比继续下滑；需求淡季，施工项目放缓采购乏力、下游企业资金压力凸 显，需求端难以承接高价涨幅。近期社会库存去化整体加快，现货市场库存压力有缓解。总体上，基本 面供应压力稍缓，矿端和镍铁成本支撑强化，但是淡季需求提振仍不足。近期原料端消息对盘面影响较 大，强成本支撑和弱需求博弈，情绪释放完毕后进一步驱动或有限，短期预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - The tin market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the near term. Given the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor subsequent macro and supply - side changes [2]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are oscillating at high levels, with futures prices rising strongly and showing a significant premium over the spot market. The market is currently in a state of oversupply, and upstream enterprises are trying to boost prices. The photovoltaic industry chain needs to find more application scenarios to increase demand. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for now and pay attention to production cuts and price acceptance [3]. Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both showing a stable decline, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. Spot prices are stabilizing, and futures prices are rising. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. It may break through 10000 yuan/ton if production cuts are significant; otherwise, it may fall if polysilicon production cuts are large and industrial silicon production cuts are less than expected [5]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to oscillate. The downward support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the upward pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Focus on import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [7]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may fluctuate widely. The upward drivers are the further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved expectations of interest rate cuts. The downward drivers are weak demand. In the long term, the bottom of copper prices may move up [10][12]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate at a low level around the cash cost line, but short - term funds may still take profits. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term, influenced by the game between macro - positive expectations and fundamental pressure [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation in the short term. The market is facing a game between strong cost support and weakening demand. Pay attention to scrap aluminum supply, regional environmental policies, and downstream orders [14]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to oscillate and repair, but the upward drive is limited. There is a possibility of a callback after the impact of news is digested. The market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand conditions in the nickel industry [15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental supply - demand game continues. Pay attention to news from the nickel ore end and the implementation of steel mill production cuts [16]. Lithium - The lithium market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations in the short term. The price may rise and then pull back. The market is currently in a state of strong supply and demand, but the de - stocking rate has slowed down, and there is significant interference from news [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.54% to 337100 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 82.26% to - 11.00 dollars/ton [2]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type re - fed material average price increased by 0.19% to 52400 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis decreased by 12.07% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 8.11% [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 23160 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 15.77 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.12% to 92350 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.62 dollars/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.41% to 21820 yuan/ton, and the alumina (Shandong) average price decreased by 0.37% to 2665 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.23% to 21700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 3.00% to 120100 yuan/ton, and the futures import profit and loss decreased by 27.39% [15]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price increased by 1.18% to 12900 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread decreased by 30.00% [16]. - **Lithium**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.10% to 97650 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 0.60% to 1318 dollars/ton [18]. Inter - month Spreads - **Tin**: The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 5.10% to - 930 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract increased by 1.59%, and the current - first - month spread decreased by 110.00% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 300.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [5]. - **Zinc**: The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 30.00 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: The AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [14]. - **Nickel**: The 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 90 yuan/ton [15]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 250 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium**: The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 60.00 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data Tin - In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11632 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons [2]. Polysilicon - Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.40% to 2.50 tons, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 tons [3]. Industrial Silicon - National industrial silicon production in November decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 tons, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84% to 64.82% [5]. Zinc - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 tons, and the galvanizing operating rate decreased by 2.31% to 56.08% [7]. Copper - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 tons, and the electrolytic copper rod operating rate decreased by 1.48% to 63.06% [10]. Aluminum - In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 tons, and the aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 2.64% to 51.60% [13]. Aluminum Alloy - In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 6.93% to 59.71% [14]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production in November decreased by 9.38% to 33342 tons, and refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9741 tons [15]. Stainless Steel - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in November decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 tons, and 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.30% to 48.40 tons [16]. Lithium - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95350 tons, and the lithium carbonate demand increased by 5.11% to 133451 tons [18]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF inventory increased by 9.53% to 8095 tons, and social inventory increased by 8.65% to 9192 tons [2]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon inventory remained unchanged at 29.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.73% to 21.50 tons [3]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's weekly inventory increased by 4.14% to 13.33 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.43% to 55.30 tons [5]. Zinc - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4.68% to 12.22 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.50% to 10.0 tons [7]. Copper - Domestic social inventory increased by 1.72% to 16.58 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 2.36% to 16.04 tons [10]. Aluminum - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 1.03% to 58.40 tons, and the aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 5.53% to 11.95 tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 2.38% to 5.34 tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy Foshan daily inventory decreased by 0.11% to 34473 tons [14]. Nickel - SHFE inventory increased by 1.35% to 45280 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.41% to 59210 tons [15]. Stainless Steel - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.30% to 48.40 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.74% to 4.85 tons [16]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate total inventory in November decreased by 23.36% to 64560 tons, and downstream inventory decreased by 21.13% to 42030 tons [18].

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price increases, with spot prices for 304 cold-rolled steel rising by 100 yuan/ton in Wuxi and Foshan, indicating a recovery in both speculative and end-user demand, although primarily driven by essential orders [1][3] - Nickel ore prices remain stable, with significant transactions occurring for 1.3% nickel ore at FOB32 and CIF42, reflecting a slight increase in domestic nickel ore prices [1][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to increase, with an estimated output of 330.41 million tons in August, marking a month-on-month rise of 2.29% [1] Raw Materials - Nickel ore market is stable, with 1.3% nickel ore transactions primarily at FOB32 and CIF42, showing a month-on-month increase [1] - Nickel iron prices are showing a slight upward trend, with major steel mills quoting around 940 yuan/nickel, indicating a recovery in production profits [1][3] - Chrome ore prices are expected to remain strong due to cost support from chrome ore suppliers [1] Supply - The estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 330.41 million tons for August, a 2.29% increase month-on-month but a 1.64% decrease year-on-year [1] - The production of the 300 series is expected to reach 175.98 million tons, reflecting a 3% month-on-month increase and a 4.4% year-on-year increase [1] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing slowly, with a slight increase in warehouse receipts; as of August 22, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 50.44 million tons, up by 0.8 million tons week-on-week [2] - Stainless steel futures inventory increased to 118,640 tons as of August 21, up by 15,119 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is showing strength with rising prices and improved transaction volumes, driven by both speculative and end-user demand, although the overall demand remains weak [3] - The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and easing export pressures from US-China tariff negotiations [3] - Despite improved production profits for steel mills, the overall demand from traditional downstream sectors remains weak, leading to cautious market sentiment [3]