Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested after the previous rebound. The short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate, and the destocking process in summer is tortuous. However, domestic demand is the main driver at the macro level, and the terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in the middle and late August. The focus should be on the autumn stocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion and the potential changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL and PP Futures Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7307, 7291, and 7268 respectively, with changes of - 27, - 21, and - 24 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.37%, - 0.29%, and - 0.33% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7016, 7032, and 6987 respectively, with changes of - 32, - 16, and - 39 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.45%, - 0.23%, and - 0.56% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 195031, 3873, and 54494 respectively, and the open interests were 360140, 18851, and 125736 respectively, with changes of 18234, 761, and - 22109 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 198360, 7393, and 50844 respectively, and the open interests were 416594, 28997, and 81393 respectively, with changes of 24874, 1950, and - 18050 respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are 16, 23, and - 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 22, 20, and - 42. For PP, the current price spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 16, 45, and - 29 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, 22, and - 22 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2395 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 560 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Intermediate and Final Products**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (August 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.35 per barrel, down $1.07 or 1.69% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.25 - $63.39. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.79 per barrel, down $0.81 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.61 - $66.58 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - For ferrosilicon manganese, from January to May 2025, the price of manganese ore was relatively low, and the power price and coal price in the production areas also decreased, leading to a downward shift in the cost center and a downward trend in the price. From January to June, there was a long - term loss in the production areas, resulting in a gradual decrease in production. By the end of June, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese in the five major steel products decreased by about 1.04%, and the inventory remained at a relatively high level, suppressing price increases. It is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations in the second half of the year. The 2025 production is estimated to decline slightly by 2.7%, and domestic consumption to decrease by 0.44% [8][9]. - For ferrosilicon, from January to June 2025, the price center moved downward, and alloy enterprises suffered long - term losses. The supply increased year - on - year, further suppressing the price. Steel enterprises had good profits and replenished stocks. Although the demand for steel was weak, other demands performed well. It is expected that the price will show a fluctuating trend in the second half of the year. The 2025 production is estimated to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and domestic consumption to increase by 1.9% [10][11]. Strategy No strategy is provided [12]. Summary According to the Directory 2025 H1 Ferroalloy Market Review - Ferrosilicon manganese: In the context of loose production capacity, the price center gradually moved downward. After the supply - side disturbance of manganese ore in mid - to - late January, the price rose significantly. After February, it declined with the fall of coal prices. From March to May, it continued to decline due to tariff disturbances and weak market expectations. In June, it rebounded with the stabilization of coal and manganese ore prices [17]. - Ferrosilicon: Driven by the black - sector market in late January, the price rose. After February, it weakened with the fall of coal prices and the reduction of power prices in some areas. From March to May, it continued to decline due to tariff disturbances and weak market expectations. In June, it rebounded with the stabilization of coal prices [17]. Ferrosilicon Manganese: Weak Downstream Demand and Long - term Losses in Production Areas Cost Center Moved Downward, and Ferrosilicon Manganese Price Continued to Weaken - In 2025, the prices of ferrosilicon manganese raw materials such as manganese ore, electricity, and coal decreased. From January to March, the import volume of Gabonese manganese ore decreased, and the prices of ferrosilicon manganese and manganese ore rose. After that, they gradually declined. In June, the price of manganese ore stabilized with the reduction of South African manganese ore shipments. The settlement power price in Ningxia decreased in April, significantly affecting the ferrosilicon manganese price [23][40]. Long - term Losses in Production Areas, and Gradual Decrease in Ferrosilicon Manganese Production - From January to June 2025, production areas suffered long - term losses. Alloy enterprises reduced production through maintenance. The weekly production once dropped to 16.28 tons, and the cumulative production from January to June was 489.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [50][61]. Weak Downstream Demand, and Ferrosilicon Manganese Inventory Still Suppressed Price Increases - By the end of June, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese in the five major steel products decreased by about 1.46%. The inventory in the three - link of ferrosilicon manganese was still at a relatively high level, and the registered warehouse receipts and effective forecast warehouse receipts were close to 90,000, putting pressure on price increases [64][76]. Ferrosilicon: Year - on - Year Increase in Production and Downward Shift in Cost Center Ferrosilicon Price Center Moved Downward, and Alloy Enterprises Suffered Long - term Losses - Affected by weak terminal demand in the black sector and downward - shifting costs, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated downward. In June, it rebounded slightly with the stabilization of coal prices. The power price and coal price decreased, and the price of semi - coke, an important raw material, also dropped significantly [81][84]. Year - on - Year Increase in Supply, Further Suppressing the Ferrosilicon Price - From January to June 2025, the total ferrosilicon production was 269.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, but still at a relatively low level in the same period of the past five years [88]. Good Profits of Steel Enterprises, and Certain Stock Replenishment by Ferrosilicon Downstream Enterprises - By the end of June, the consumption of ferrosilicon in the five major steel products decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, while the production of stainless - steel crude steel increased by 10.2% year - on - year, and the production of magnesium metal also increased. From January to May, ferrosilicon exports decreased by 14.2% year - on - year. Steel enterprises replenished stocks, and the total inventory in the three - link was at a relatively low level in the same period of the past five years [92][99]. 2025 Outlook - In 2025, domestic crude steel consumption is expected to increase slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, and crude steel production to increase by 1.6% year - on - year, providing support for the demand for ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon. - Ferrosilicon manganese: The production is estimated to decline slightly by 2.7%, domestic consumption to decrease by 0.44%, and exports to decline by 37.6% [109]. - Ferrosilicon: The production is estimated to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and domestic consumption to increase by 1.9% year - on - year. Exports are expected to decline by 4.5% [111][112].