Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the China Rare Metals Theme Index down by 2.50% as of October 15, 2025, while the rare metals ETF has shown a significant increase over the past week, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [1][3]. Market Performance - As of October 14, 2025, the rare metals ETF has accumulated a weekly increase of 6.44%, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 7.54% with a transaction value of 277 million yuan, and its latest scale hit 3.677 billion yuan, marking a new high since inception [3]. - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past five days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 403 million yuan, totaling 1.088 billion yuan [3]. - The net value of the rare metals ETF has increased by 13.19% over the past three years, with the highest monthly return recorded at 24.02% [3]. Key Stocks and Weightings - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index account for 59.91% of the index, including Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [3]. - Notable stock performances include Shenghe Resources leading with a 6.40% increase, while Eastern Tantalum and Ganfeng Lithium saw declines [1][6]. Regulatory Environment - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies and products, requiring licenses for certain exports, which may impact the market dynamics [4]. - The strategic small metals are expected to gain a "quasi-safe haven" status due to their scarcity and strategic importance, potentially leading to a revaluation of domestic strategic assets [4].

Group 1: Macro Insights - In September, exports increased significantly, reaching a six-month high, indicating the resilience of China's export sector. The export growth rate for Q3 was 6.5%, slightly higher than in Q1 and Q2, supporting the GDP growth target of "above 5%" for the year [2] - Imports surged by 7.4% year-on-year in September, marking the highest increase in a year and a half, with industrial metals like copper and iron ore, as well as integrated circuits, being the main drivers [2] - Looking ahead to Q4, export growth may slow due to high base effects and recent escalations in US-China tariffs, but it is expected to remain positive overall, with strong support from regions outside the US [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Duople (301528.SZ) is a leading domestic provider of ultrasonic phased array testing equipment, showing strong profitability with H1 2025 revenue of 80 million yuan, up 56.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 20 million yuan, up 12.15% [6][7] - Kaishan (300257.SZ) is a leader in high-end equipment manufacturing and renewable energy, with a revenue of 4.235 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.64% increase, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, down 26.05% [8] - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) reported strong Q3 performance with a 10% increase in adult and children's apparel sales in offline channels and a 20% increase in e-commerce sales, projecting net profits of 1.261 billion yuan for 2025 [14] - Xingyu (601799.SH) established a robotics subsidiary to expand into the emerging robotics sector, while maintaining strong growth in its core automotive lighting business, with a projected net profit of 1.7 billion yuan for 2025 [16][17] Group 3: Industry Trends - The basic chemical sector is experiencing a configuration opportunity, with a significant adjustment in the index from a peak of 9565.18 points to a low of 3876.11 points, a cumulative decline of 59.5% [12] - Strategic metals are expected to see a revaluation due to geopolitical tensions, with a focus on rare earths, tungsten, and antimony as potential investment opportunities [9][11] - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to grow, with East Sunshine's acquisition of Qinhuai Data expected to enhance its capabilities in AI infrastructure and cooling solutions [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the small metals industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The strategic small metals are expected to undergo a value reassessment due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, leading to price increases and improved profitability for companies in this sector [2][3]. - The strategic value of small metals arises from their irreplaceable applications in AI, military, and semiconductor industries, making them critical for advanced technologies [2]. - The investment logic for strategic small metals includes fundamental drivers from supply disruptions and valuation logic based on sustained high price expectations [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the small metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Strategic Value of Small Metals - The report highlights that small metals like germanium, gallium, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths are gaining strategic value due to China's supply dominance and their essential roles in high-tech applications [2]. - The geopolitical landscape has led to supply quotas and export controls, enhancing the scarcity and strategic importance of these metals [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the strategic metals sector, including: - Rare Earths: China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, Jien Nickel, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [3]. - Antimony: Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [3]. - Tungsten: Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, Jiaxin International, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Anyuan Coal [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that small metals have shown resilience in the market, with significant price increases observed in response to external market movements, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards these strategic assets [3].

Core Insights - The report indicates that cobalt production cuts are gradually being realized, leading to an expected increase in cobalt prices due to tightening supply conditions [1][6][98] - The report maintains a bullish stance on strategic metals, particularly recommending rare earths and antimony due to their rigid supply characteristics and potential for value reassessment [6][84] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 32,393.83 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 30,354.97 billion yuan [2] - In May, the production of electric vehicles in China saw a significant year-on-year increase, with sales reaching 1.27 million units, marking a 35% growth [22][24] - The photovoltaic sector also experienced robust growth, with newly installed capacity reaching 197.85 GW in the first five months of 2025, a 150% increase year-on-year [19] Cobalt Market Analysis - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its export ban on cobalt for an additional three months, which is expected to further tighten supply and drive prices upward [6][98] - In June, the production of electrolytic cobalt was reported at 2,730 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][106] - The price of standard-grade MB cobalt was reported at $15.78 per pound, down 0.79% from the previous period, while alloy-grade MB cobalt increased by 1.31% to $19.35 per pound [17][98] Rare Earth Market Insights - The report highlights that rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with the domestic price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 446,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.22% increase [6][82] - The strategic value of rare earths is being reassessed due to export controls on medium and heavy rare earths, which are expected to lead to a more concentrated supply structure [84] Lithium Market Dynamics - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown signs of recovery, with a current price of 62,300 yuan per ton, up 2.05% [43][44] - Lithium hydroxide prices have slightly decreased by 0.74%, currently at 60,100 yuan per ton, while lithium concentrate prices increased by 3.80% to $653 per ton [44][70] Antimony and Other Metals - Antimony remains in a tight supply situation, with domestic antimony ingot prices at 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% [6][8] - Tin prices are experiencing fluctuations, with SHFE tin prices at 267,300 yuan per ton, down 0.60%, while LME tin prices increased by 0.61% to $33,770 per ton [6][8]