Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend with all three major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.73%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.16%, and ChiNext Index down 1.84% [1] Sector Performance - Energy metals, steel, and battery sectors showed strong gains, while gaming, power equipment, and coal sectors faced significant declines [1] Fund Flows - Major capital inflows were observed in energy metals, steel, and insurance sectors [1] ETF Performance - Rare metals, oil and gas, and battery-related ETFs performed well, likely driven by recent news [2] - The cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. and the suspension of a 24% reciprocal tariff for one year may positively impact market sentiment [2] Strategic Asset Insights - Small metals are viewed as having irreplaceable strategic uses, leading to an increase in overseas valuations that may elevate domestic strategic asset values [2] - The potential for a valuation reset across all domestic strategic assets is anticipated, not limited to rare earths [2] Oil and Gas Sector Outlook - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term outlook for oil supply and demand remains positive, with a focus on major oil companies and oil service sectors [3] - A potential increase in oil prices could benefit upstream assets, while improved demand and supply management may favor midstream refining [3] Battery Industry Trends - The battery sector is benefiting from dual demand drivers in power and energy storage, with production capacity currently unable to meet demand [4] - Lithium battery demand is projected to grow by 40% for the year, with significant increases in global energy storage battery demand expected to reach 550 GWh by 2025, a 70% year-on-year increase [4] - Price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate are anticipated, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [4]

Market Overview - The A-share major indices experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, closing down 0.73% at 3986 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.84% [1] - The total market turnover reached 2.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 137.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 4100 stocks declining [1] Lithium Sector Performance - The lithium mining sector continued its upward trend from the previous day, with Tianqi Lithium Industries rising nearly 10%, and companies like Jiangte Motor, Yongxing Materials, and Tibet City Investment hitting the daily limit, while Ganfeng Lithium and Zhongmin Resources increased by over 5% [1] ETF Performance - Rare metals ETFs and funds rose over 2%, with year-to-date gains exceeding 80% [2] - Specific ETFs include: - Rare Metals ETF (Code: 159608) up 2.77% with a year-to-date increase of 87.03% and an estimated size of 944 million yuan [3] - Rare Metals ETF Fund (Code: 159671) up 2.53% with a year-to-date increase of 86.09% and an estimated size of 670 million yuan [3] - Rare Metals ETF Fund (Code: 561800) up 2.46% with a year-to-date increase of 83.33% and an estimated size of 233 million yuan [3] - Rare Metals ETF (Code: 562800) up 2.27% with a year-to-date increase of 84.05% and an estimated size of 4.17 billion yuan [3] Strategic Importance of Rare Metals - The strategic significance of important scarce resources has transcended industrial economics, becoming a key factor influencing national competitiveness and security [3][4] - In the context of global supply chain restructuring, countries are increasingly focusing on securing domestic supply chains, leading to supply-side policies that control the total extraction of scarce resources [4] - The demand for resources in sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and semiconductors has significantly driven up prices in the metal and non-metal industries over the past month [4] Shift in Resource Valuation - The logic surrounding important scarce resources has fundamentally shifted from traditional cyclical thinking to a strategic perspective, necessitating consideration of geopolitical, industrial security, and monetary factors [4] - The competition for key minerals will intensify as countries accelerate the construction of domestic supply chains, with economies that possess resource advantages poised to take the lead in the next round of industrial transformation [4] Revaluation of Strategic Minor Metals - Strategic minor metals are expected to see a revaluation of their "quasi-safe haven" value, as they possess natural scarcity and irreplaceable strategic uses [5] - The Chinese government has implemented supply quotas and export controls on strategic minor metals like germanium, gallium, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths, enhancing their market position and strategic value [5] - The strategic value of rare metals is underscored by their essential applications in AI, military, and semiconductor sectors, indicating that a lack of physical supply could jeopardize advancements in these critical technologies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a performance recovery after reaching the bottom of the cycle, with leading companies' stock prices rebounding ahead of their earnings, particularly in the energy metals segment [1] Company Performance - Huayou Cobalt reported a revenue of 58.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.57%, and a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% [1][2] - In Q3 alone, Huayou Cobalt achieved a revenue of 21.744 billion yuan, marking a 40.85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.53% [2][3] - The company attributes its performance to integrated operations, rising cobalt prices, management reforms, and cost reduction efforts [3] Market Dynamics - The stock price of Huayou Cobalt surged over 78% in Q3, reflecting strong investor interest, including notable purchases by well-known investors [4][5] - The company’s major shareholder, Chen Xuehua, holds 18.92% of the shares, with a market value exceeding 22 billion yuan based on recent stock prices [3][6] Future Outlook - The new cycle for non-ferrous metals appears to be confirmed, with Huayou Cobalt's Q3 performance indicating potential for record annual earnings [7] - The company’s valuation remains low compared to its peak in 2021, suggesting room for growth as demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel is expected to rise with the advent of solid-state batteries [8][12] - Huayou Cobalt's production capacity is set to increase significantly, with projects in Indonesia expected to enhance its cobalt output [8][11] Industry Trends - The global cobalt supply is projected to face shortages in the coming years, with significant price increases anticipated due to supply constraints [11] - The demand for energy metals is expected to grow substantially, driven by advancements in battery technology and increasing applications in various sectors [12][13] - The overall demand for lithium batteries is forecasted to rise sharply, with significant growth expected in energy storage solutions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the China Rare Metals Theme Index down by 2.50% as of October 15, 2025, while the rare metals ETF has shown a significant increase over the past week, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [1][3]. Market Performance - As of October 14, 2025, the rare metals ETF has accumulated a weekly increase of 6.44%, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 7.54% with a transaction value of 277 million yuan, and its latest scale hit 3.677 billion yuan, marking a new high since inception [3]. - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past five days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 403 million yuan, totaling 1.088 billion yuan [3]. - The net value of the rare metals ETF has increased by 13.19% over the past three years, with the highest monthly return recorded at 24.02% [3]. Key Stocks and Weightings - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index account for 59.91% of the index, including Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [3]. - Notable stock performances include Shenghe Resources leading with a 6.40% increase, while Eastern Tantalum and Ganfeng Lithium saw declines [1][6]. Regulatory Environment - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies and products, requiring licenses for certain exports, which may impact the market dynamics [4]. - The strategic small metals are expected to gain a "quasi-safe haven" status due to their scarcity and strategic importance, potentially leading to a revaluation of domestic strategic assets [4].

Core Insights - Recent surge in prices of certain minor metals, with cobalt exceeding 350,000 yuan/ton, tungsten reaching 266,000 yuan/ton, and molybdenum at 4,380 yuan/ton, indicating significant year-to-date increases [1] - The demand for minor metals is driven by the rapid development of new industries such as renewable energy and aerospace, particularly the increased need for cobalt in lithium battery manufacturing [1] - Strategic minor metals are being re-evaluated as "quasi-safe-haven" assets due to their scarcity and irreplaceable strategic uses, similar to traditional precious metals [1] Industry Overview - Cobalt prices have doubled since the end of last year, while tungsten and molybdenum have also seen substantial price increases [1] - The global supply of certain minor metals is limited and concentrated in specific regions, making prices sensitive to geopolitical and production disruptions [1] Company Performance - Leading companies in the strategic minor metals sector include: - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) with a market cap exceeding 270 billion yuan and projected cobalt revenue of 5.728 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [2] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) with a market cap over 205.3 billion yuan and a revenue increase of over 45% year-on-year [2] - Huayou Cobalt (603799) with a market cap of approximately 122.8 billion yuan, showing a significant increase in nickel product shipments [2] - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) with a competitive advantage across the tungsten industry chain [2] Stock Performance - Average stock price increase for strategic minor metal leaders exceeds 90% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader market [3] - Specific stocks such as Xinyi Silver Tin, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum have seen price increases over 100% [3] - Forecasts indicate potential for net profit doubling for companies like Shenghe Resources and China Rare Earth this year [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The recent quota distribution in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to significant implications for cobalt supply, with mining companies receiving the majority of quotas while smelting plants are left without direct allocations. This shift is expected to create a tight supply situation, impacting cobalt prices and market dynamics. Quota Distribution - The total quota allocated is 96,600 tons, with 87,000 tons as the basic quota and 10% as strategic quotas, which can be adjusted based on price changes [2] - Major mining companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (3,120 tons), Glencore (1,330 tons), and Eurasian Resources (1,020 tons) dominate the quota distribution, while domestic smelting plants received no direct quotas [2][3] - The government platforms EGC, STL, and ARECOMS received a combined quota of 16,700 tons for 2026, which can be utilized by smelting plants through collaboration [3] Supply Chain Implications - The lack of direct quotas for smelting plants means they will have to rely on mining companies for raw material supply, leading to increased competition and potential price hikes [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to reflect structural issues rather than just supply-demand balance, as smelting companies will need to purchase raw materials from quota-holding mining firms [7][8] Strategic Quotas and Regulations - Strategic quotas totaling 9,600 tons are aimed at supporting national key projects, indicating a focus on resource nationalism [5] - New regulations prevent quota transfer and require unused quotas to be forfeited, tightening control over cobalt exports [4][6] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The pricing power for cobalt is shifting towards companies like Glencore, as they will be the primary suppliers for cobalt salt manufacturers [8] - Resource nationalism is expected to increase costs for acquiring raw materials, leading to higher prices and a need for countries to build new supply chains and safety stocks [8] Conclusion The recent quota changes in the DRC are reshaping the cobalt market, concentrating power among a few mining companies and creating a tighter supply environment that could lead to significant price increases and shifts in market dynamics [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the small metals industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The strategic small metals are expected to undergo a value reassessment due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, leading to price increases and improved profitability for companies in this sector [2][3]. - The strategic value of small metals arises from their irreplaceable applications in AI, military, and semiconductor industries, making them critical for advanced technologies [2]. - The investment logic for strategic small metals includes fundamental drivers from supply disruptions and valuation logic based on sustained high price expectations [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the small metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Strategic Value of Small Metals - The report highlights that small metals like germanium, gallium, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths are gaining strategic value due to China's supply dominance and their essential roles in high-tech applications [2]. - The geopolitical landscape has led to supply quotas and export controls, enhancing the scarcity and strategic importance of these metals [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the strategic metals sector, including: - Rare Earths: China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, Jien Nickel, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [3]. - Antimony: Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [3]. - Tungsten: Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, Jiaxin International, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Anyuan Coal [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that small metals have shown resilience in the market, with significant price increases observed in response to external market movements, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards these strategic assets [3].