行业轮动 TF策略周报 (20251229-20260104) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht. com. cn · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 563380 | 航空航天ETF | 1. 71 | 调入 | 航空装备 (61.39%) | 1 | 1 | | 159218 | 卫星产业ETF | 15.51 | 调入 | 航天装备 (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 159766 | 旅游ETF ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 561800 | 稀有金属ETF基金 | 1.003 | 0.031 3.19% | | 562800 | 稀有金属ETF | 0.942 | 0.029 3.18% | | 159608 | 稀有金属ETF | 1.082 | 0.033 3.15% | | 159671 | 稀有金属ETF基金 | 1.318 | 0.038 2.97% | 有券商表示，战略小金属储量有限、开采难度大且供给弹性不足，同时新能源、半导体、军工等下游需求快速增 长，供需矛盾加剧。在资源稀缺性持续凸显、需求结构升级及政策调控下，未来稀有金属价格有望延续上行趋势， 具备资源储量优势、技术壁垒及合规出口渠道的企业将持续受益。 小金属概念股走强，中矿资源涨超7%，洛阳钼业涨超5%，天齐锂业涨超4%。 受盘面影响，稀有金属相关ETF涨约3%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

本报记者 彭衍菘 截至12月17日午间收盘，A股市场稀有金属板块表现抢眼，多只稀有金属ETF涨幅居前。 | 美肌 | 宽重 | 行业 主题 T+0 | 策略 | 陆股通 | 港股通 | 股票型 债券型 | 货币型 | 商品型 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 相同指数ETF仅显示最活跃的一只② □ 成交金额 > | 0 亿 | 估算规模 > | 0亿 | 跟踪指数 | 输入代码 | | | 屋号 | 代码 | 类型 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 溢折率 | 成交额 | 换手率 | | 1 | 517160 | 主 长江保护主题ETF | 0.973 | 0.088 | 9.94% | 9.71% | 927 | 0.00% | | 2 | 159608 | 主 稀有金属ETF | 0.992 | 0.032 | 3.33% | 0.05% | 5057.08万 | 6.05% | | 3 | 159671 | 主 稀有金属ETF基金 | 1.211 | 0.038 | 3.24% | -0.07% | ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The ETF market showed mixed performance on December 17, with significant gains in certain sectors while others experienced declines [1][2]. Performance of Specific ETFs - The Changjiang Protection Theme ETF (517160) increased by 9.94% [1][2]. - The Rare Metals ETF (159608) rose by 3.33% [1][2]. - The Rare Metals ETF Fund (159671) saw a gain of 3.24% [1][2]. - The Brazil ETF (159100) decreased by 3.83% [1][2]. - The Brazil ETF (520870) fell by 3.28% [1][2]. - The General Aviation ETF Fund (159230) declined by 2.28% [1][2].

截至午盘，上证指数涨0.17%，深证成指涨0.83%，创业板指涨1.21%，北证50跌0.83%。全市场成 交额10402亿元，较上日成交额缩量993亿元。 锂电池产业链领涨，CPO概念股反复活跃，航空、有色 金属涨幅居前。稳定币、商业航天、海南自贸区题材调整。新股沐曦股份半日大涨近700%，总市值一 度超摩尔线程。 ETF方面， 南方基金长江保护主题ETF异动上涨9.94%，最新溢折率为9.71%。锂矿金属延续涨势， 广发基金稀有金属ETF、工银瑞信基金稀有金属ETF基金和嘉实基金稀有金属ETF分别涨3.33%、3.24% 和3.23%。CPO板块反弹，国泰基金通信ETF、富国基金通信设备ETF和创业板人工智能ETF国泰涨 2%。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 两只巴西ETF跌3%。卫星互联网板块回调，通用航空ETF基金、航空ETF基金跌2%。原油期货 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.57%, the ChiNext Index up 0.6%, and the Northern Stock 50 up 1.12% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 91.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day's turnover [1] Sector Performance - Active sectors included electric grid equipment and precious metals, while commercial aerospace stocks showed repeated activity [1] - Concepts such as nuclear fusion, CPO, ultra-high voltage, superconductors, charging piles, and photolithography stocks saw significant gains [1] - The lithium battery electrolyte, cross-strait integration, and banking sectors weakened [1] ETF Performance - The ultra-high voltage and smart grid sectors experienced rapid increases, with ETFs from Huaxia, Guotai, and GF rising by 3.07%, 2.64%, and 2.63% respectively [1] - The overnight Dow Jones index rose, leading to a 2.68% increase in the Penghua Dow Jones ETF [1] - Gold stocks rose for the second consecutive day, with the Ping An Fund Gold Stock ETF and Huaxia Fund Gold Stock ETF increasing by 2.16% and 1.89% respectively [1] - The smart driving sector was active, with the Fuguo Fund Smart Car ETF and Huitianfu Fund Smart Car ETF rising by 1.93% and 1.83% respectively [1] Weak Sectors - The lithium battery sector declined, with ETFs such as Invesco's battery ETF, leading new energy vehicle ETFs, and new energy vehicle ETFs all dropping by 1% [2] - The rare metals sector weakened, with the rare metals ETF also falling by 1% [2] - Chemical stocks showed poor performance, with the chemical ETF down by 0.76% [2]

Group 1 - The rare metal concept stocks have weakened, with companies like China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources dropping over 3%, and Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, Salt Lake Industry, and Ganfeng Lithium falling over 2% [1] - The Rare Metal ETF has also declined by more than 2% [1] - Analysts believe that the limited reserves of strategic minor metals, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, combined with rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industry, are exacerbating supply-demand conflicts [2] Group 2 - The scarcity of resources is becoming increasingly prominent, and with the upgrading of demand structure and policy regulation, rare metal prices are expected to continue an upward trend [2] - Companies with resource reserve advantages, technical barriers, and compliant export channels are likely to benefit continuously [2]

【导读】上周五股票 ETF资金 净流出 44 亿元， 11 月净流入超 700 亿元 中国基金报记者 天心 上周五（ 11 月 28 日）， A 股市场低开高走，三大指数集体收涨，沪深两市成交量缩至 1.59 万亿元。 伴随市场反弹，部分股票 ETF 选择"落袋为安"。上周五全市场股票 ETF （含跨境 ETF ）资金净流出 44 亿元。 11 月份，股票 ETF 仍 大幅 " 吸金 " 超 700 亿元。其中，恒生科技相关 ETF 获得资金青睐，合计资金净流入接近 200 亿元。 半导体、卫星、稀有金属 ETF 领涨 Wind 数据显示，截至 11 月 28 日，全市场 1268 只股票 ETF 总规模达 4.55 万亿元。 当日股票 ETF 成交额合计 1421.21 亿元，与前一交易日 1777.47 亿元相比缩量超 350 亿元。其中，易方达基金旗下 A500ETF 当日成 交 56.37 亿元，位居首位。 此外， A500ETF 易方达、中证 A500ETF （国泰基金）成交额在 40 亿元以上。创新药 ETF （广发）、 A500ETF 基金华泰柏瑞、中韩 半导体 ETF （华泰柏瑞）、 A500 ...

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the communication ETF led the market with a remarkable increase of 96.11%, showcasing strong momentum in the AI era [1] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector emerged as a significant winner, with various ETFs in this category showing substantial gains: Hong Kong innovative drug ETF fund up 87.42%, Hong Kong innovative drug ETF up 86.62%, and Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF up 85.22% [1] - The resource sector also performed well, with mining ETF up 82.32%, non-ferrous metals ETF up 76.83%, and rare metals ETF up 76.58%, driven by rising global inflation expectations [1] Group 2: ETF Performance Data - The top-performing ETFs from January to November 2025 include: - Communication ETF: 96.11% [2] - Hong Kong innovative drug ETF fund: 87.42% [2] - Hong Kong innovative drug ETF: 86.62% [2] - Communication equipment ETF: 85.24% [2] - Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF: 85.22% [2] - The worst-performing ETFs included: - Energy chemical ETF: -14.78% [5] - S&P Consumer ETF: -11.40% [5] - Alcohol ETF: -5.36% [5] Group 3: Fund Flows - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF saw the highest net inflow of 553.05 billion yuan, indicating strong market confidence in the Hong Kong tech sector [8] - Other notable net inflows included short-term bond ETF at 436.42 billion yuan and gold ETF at 406.63 billion yuan [8] - Conversely, significant outflows were observed in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF, with a net outflow of 463.46 billion yuan, indicating pressure on growth sectors [12]

Group 1: Fund News Overview - 16 hard technology-themed funds were approved on November 21, including 7 AI ETFs, 3 chip ETFs, 4 chip design ETFs, and 2 actively managed technology equity funds from various fund managers such as E Fund, GF Fund, and Morgan Asset Management [1] - Several dividend ETFs have reached record sizes, with one product exceeding 26.6 billion yuan. As of November 21, the net inflow for dividend-themed ETFs in November reached 6.318 billion yuan, totaling 35.623 billion yuan year-to-date, representing a 49.31% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - More than half of Hong Kong stock funds have a return rate exceeding 30%. As of November 18, out of 337 funds with "Hong Kong" in their names, 336 had positive returns this year, with 174 funds achieving returns over 30%, accounting for approximately 52% [3] Group 2: Fund Manager Updates - Fund subscriptions for multiple funds managed by Lan Xiaokang will be limited starting November 24, with a maximum subscription amount of 500,000 yuan per day per account. The two funds, managed by Lan Xiaokang, have scales of 9.668 billion yuan and 7.170 billion yuan respectively [4] Group 3: ETF Market Commentary - The market showed a slight recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.31%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease of 237.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Sectors such as aerospace, internet services, and communication equipment saw significant gains, while energy metals and insurance sectors experienced declines [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key opportunity, with satellite applications and 6G technology showing strong integration potential. The next important phase for satellite networks will be the deployment of powerful on-orbit computing capabilities, which can be explored through aerospace ETFs and general aviation ETFs [9]