战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数(EPMI)

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【广发宏观王丹】7月EPMI淡季同比小幅转正,反内卷下销售价格企稳
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-07-21 11:21
Core Viewpoint - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for strategic emerging industries shows a seasonal decline but has turned positive year-on-year, indicating resilience in industrial prosperity despite a slight month-on-month decrease [1][5][6]. Group 1: PMI Overview - The July EPMI decreased by 1.1 points to 46.8, with only the new materials sector remaining in the expansion zone among seven sub-industries, reflecting a reduction in the number of expanding sectors [1][5][9]. - The absolute prosperity level is 0.7 points higher than the same period last year, marking a transition from negative to positive year-on-year growth [1][8]. Group 2: Sub-Indicators Analysis - In July, production, product orders, and export orders in emerging industries fell by 1.3, 1.5, and 2.2 points respectively, with export orders declining for two consecutive months [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio remained stable at 2.2, fluctuating within a narrow range for five months [2][12]. - Financing conditions improved, with the difficulty of obtaining loans decreasing by 1.4 points in July [2][14]. - A notable positive signal is the stabilization of sales prices, which increased by 1.7 points, while purchase prices continued to decline [2][14]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The new materials sector has shown a continuous increase in prosperity for three months, with a July index above 50, indicating strong performance compared to other sectors [3][17]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving environmental protection sectors maintained resilience, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors saw a decline in prosperity [3][17]. - Export orders for biotechnology and new energy vehicles fell significantly, by 17.7 and 10.1 points respectively [3][20]. Group 4: Market Implications - The EPMI data suggests a generally positive impact on the market, with the month-on-month decline being anticipated and the year-on-year increase indicating a slope lower than seasonal averages [4][22]. - The shift in key industry sales price indices from decline to increase reflects the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in stabilizing nominal growth [4][22].
【广发宏观王丹】制造业淡季和出口回调下6月EPMI有所放缓
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-06-20 13:56
Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) fell by 3.1 points to 47.9 in June, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2014, indicating a weakening economic environment in the traditional manufacturing off-season [1][5][6]. Group 1: EPMI and Economic Indicators - The EPMI's decline is slightly greater than the seasonal average decline of 1.1 points observed from 2014 to 2024 [1][7]. - The absolute value of 47.9 is 1.4 points lower than the same period last year, reflecting a significant downturn in emerging industries [8][9]. - Among seven sub-sectors of strategic emerging industries, only two are in the expansion zone, a decrease of one from May [9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Production and product order indices fell by 5.5 and 6.0 points respectively in June [2][11]. - The production-to-order ratio increased to 2.0, indicating that demand is declining faster than supply, although it remains below the three-year average [2][12]. - Export orders decreased by 6.6 points, which is a larger drop than overall orders, suggesting a potential downward adjustment in export growth [2][11]. - Purchasing and selling prices fell by 2.4 and 1.2 points respectively, continuing a three-month trend of decline [2][13]. - Research and development activities increased by 2.1 points, ending a three-month decline, but new product launches have decreased for four consecutive months [2][15]. Group 3: Sector Performance - New materials and next-generation information technology are the only two sectors in the expansion zone, with new materials leading for two months and next-generation information technology for four months [3][16]. - The biotechnology sector showed a recovery after two months of decline, while other sectors experienced a slowdown in June [3][16]. - The electric vehicle sector saw a significant drop in production metrics, which was greater than the change in demand, possibly linked to strict accounting periods [3][15][17]. Group 4: Traditional vs. New Industries - The economy can be simplified into "traditional industries + new industries," with traditional industrial operating rates showing divergence [3][18]. - The steel and coking sectors have lower operating rates compared to May, while the chemical industry has seen some recovery [3][18]. - The EPMI data suggests that the manufacturing PMI may also see a slight decline in June [3][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trends in EPMI, PMI, and BCI since the beginning of the year show a gradual increase until March, followed by a pullback in April and stabilization in May [4][18]. - The real estate market's performance and the potential for construction industry counter-cyclical support will be critical moving forward [4][18].
【广发宏观王丹】出口订单带动5月EPMI反弹
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-05-20 12:48
Core Viewpoint - The EPMI for May, which reflects the economic climate of strategic emerging industries, increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, indicating a slight rebound beyond seasonal expectations due to recent financial policies and positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The EPMI's May reading of 51.0 is the third lowest for the same period historically, only better than May 2022 and May 2023 [7]. - The production, product orders, and export orders indices increased by 1.8, 2.9, and 10.8 points respectively, indicating a recovery in demand [2][8]. - The employment index saw a slight increase of 1.1 points, while the investment activities in emerging industries remained cautious, with R&D and new product launches declining by 2.1 and 0.1 points respectively [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - New generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved performance, largely driven by external demand and domestic policy support [14][15]. - The export orders for high-end equipment rose by 13.2 points, while energy-saving and environmental protection saw a 22.7-point increase, indicating strong sectoral recovery [15]. - Conversely, the biological industry experienced a decline in export orders, continuing a downward trend from April [14][15]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stimulate demand and address market distortions, as indicated by recent statements from the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. - The focus on completing the 'two重' construction project list by the end of June suggests a proactive approach to economic recovery [15].