广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 11 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（ EPMI ）环比回落 7.0 个点至 52.7 。 2014-2024 年 11 月环比平均降幅为 3.0 个点，本月降幅大于季 节性，我们理解与 10 月数据的跳升有关。 10 月一度环比大幅上行 7.3 个点， 10-11 月相当于完成一个倒 V 型波动。从绝对景气度相对于历史同期均值 的位置看， 10 月与 9 月大致相当，略好于 6-8 月（图 1 ）。 正文 11 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（ EPMI ）环比回落 7.0 个点至 52.7 。 2014-2024 年 11 月环比平均降幅为 3.0 个点，本月降幅大于季节性，我 们理解与 10 月数据的跳升有关。 10 月一度环比大幅上行 7.3 个点， 10-11 月相当于完成一个倒 V 型波动。从绝对景气度相对于历史同期均值的位置 看， 10 月与 9 月大致相当，略好于 6-8 月（图 1 ）。 第二， 考虑到 10 月跳升、 11 月跳降的波动，与 10 月相比意义不大。如果与 9 月相比（图 ...

Core Viewpoint - The October EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) significantly increased by 7.3 points to 59.7, marking the largest historical rise for this month, driven by seasonal factors and improved economic conditions in various sectors [1][6][7]. Group 1: EPMI Overview - The October EPMI reached 59.7, which is above the seasonal average and indicates a recovery in economic sentiment [1][8]. - The historical average for October EPMI from 2014 to 2024 is 58.2, with this month's value exceeding the seasonal mean by 1.5 points [8][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Key indicators for production, product orders, and export orders rose by 11.7, 12.9, and 8.3 points respectively in October [2][11]. - The supply-demand ratio turned negative at -0.5, indicating that new orders are outpacing production [2][12]. - Price indicators for purchases and sales increased by 3.3 and 3.5 points respectively, contributing to a 9.6-point rise in profit indicators [2][13]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The sectors of new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and biotechnology showed significant growth, with increases of 14.9, 12.2, and 8.9 points respectively [3][18]. - Export orders for biotechnology, new generation information technology, and new energy vehicles rose by over 10 points, with biotechnology exports recovering to above 70 [3][19]. - The new energy sector saw a 6.6-point increase, likely influenced by positive price changes [3][20]. Group 4: Economic Context - The third quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.8% from 5.3% in the first half of the year, with production showing signs of recovery in October [5][27]. - The upcoming PMI data is expected to reflect a typical seasonal decline, but the EPMI's rise suggests underlying economic support [4][23].

Core Viewpoint - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for strategic emerging industries shows a seasonal decline but has turned positive year-on-year, indicating resilience in industrial prosperity despite a slight month-on-month decrease [1][5][6]. Group 1: PMI Overview - The July EPMI decreased by 1.1 points to 46.8, with only the new materials sector remaining in the expansion zone among seven sub-industries, reflecting a reduction in the number of expanding sectors [1][5][9]. - The absolute prosperity level is 0.7 points higher than the same period last year, marking a transition from negative to positive year-on-year growth [1][8]. Group 2: Sub-Indicators Analysis - In July, production, product orders, and export orders in emerging industries fell by 1.3, 1.5, and 2.2 points respectively, with export orders declining for two consecutive months [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio remained stable at 2.2, fluctuating within a narrow range for five months [2][12]. - Financing conditions improved, with the difficulty of obtaining loans decreasing by 1.4 points in July [2][14]. - A notable positive signal is the stabilization of sales prices, which increased by 1.7 points, while purchase prices continued to decline [2][14]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The new materials sector has shown a continuous increase in prosperity for three months, with a July index above 50, indicating strong performance compared to other sectors [3][17]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving environmental protection sectors maintained resilience, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors saw a decline in prosperity [3][17]. - Export orders for biotechnology and new energy vehicles fell significantly, by 17.7 and 10.1 points respectively [3][20]. Group 4: Market Implications - The EPMI data suggests a generally positive impact on the market, with the month-on-month decline being anticipated and the year-on-year increase indicating a slope lower than seasonal averages [4][22]. - The shift in key industry sales price indices from decline to increase reflects the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in stabilizing nominal growth [4][22].

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) fell by 3.1 points to 47.9 in June, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2014, indicating a weakening economic environment in the traditional manufacturing off-season [1][5][6]. Group 1: EPMI and Economic Indicators - The EPMI's decline is slightly greater than the seasonal average decline of 1.1 points observed from 2014 to 2024 [1][7]. - The absolute value of 47.9 is 1.4 points lower than the same period last year, reflecting a significant downturn in emerging industries [8][9]. - Among seven sub-sectors of strategic emerging industries, only two are in the expansion zone, a decrease of one from May [9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Production and product order indices fell by 5.5 and 6.0 points respectively in June [2][11]. - The production-to-order ratio increased to 2.0, indicating that demand is declining faster than supply, although it remains below the three-year average [2][12]. - Export orders decreased by 6.6 points, which is a larger drop than overall orders, suggesting a potential downward adjustment in export growth [2][11]. - Purchasing and selling prices fell by 2.4 and 1.2 points respectively, continuing a three-month trend of decline [2][13]. - Research and development activities increased by 2.1 points, ending a three-month decline, but new product launches have decreased for four consecutive months [2][15]. Group 3: Sector Performance - New materials and next-generation information technology are the only two sectors in the expansion zone, with new materials leading for two months and next-generation information technology for four months [3][16]. - The biotechnology sector showed a recovery after two months of decline, while other sectors experienced a slowdown in June [3][16]. - The electric vehicle sector saw a significant drop in production metrics, which was greater than the change in demand, possibly linked to strict accounting periods [3][15][17]. Group 4: Traditional vs. New Industries - The economy can be simplified into "traditional industries + new industries," with traditional industrial operating rates showing divergence [3][18]. - The steel and coking sectors have lower operating rates compared to May, while the chemical industry has seen some recovery [3][18]. - The EPMI data suggests that the manufacturing PMI may also see a slight decline in June [3][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trends in EPMI, PMI, and BCI since the beginning of the year show a gradual increase until March, followed by a pullback in April and stabilization in May [4][18]. - The real estate market's performance and the potential for construction industry counter-cyclical support will be critical moving forward [4][18].

Core Viewpoint - The EPMI for May, which reflects the economic climate of strategic emerging industries, increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, indicating a slight rebound beyond seasonal expectations due to recent financial policies and positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The EPMI's May reading of 51.0 is the third lowest for the same period historically, only better than May 2022 and May 2023 [7]. - The production, product orders, and export orders indices increased by 1.8, 2.9, and 10.8 points respectively, indicating a recovery in demand [2][8]. - The employment index saw a slight increase of 1.1 points, while the investment activities in emerging industries remained cautious, with R&D and new product launches declining by 2.1 and 0.1 points respectively [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - New generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved performance, largely driven by external demand and domestic policy support [14][15]. - The export orders for high-end equipment rose by 13.2 points, while energy-saving and environmental protection saw a 22.7-point increase, indicating strong sectoral recovery [15]. - Conversely, the biological industry experienced a decline in export orders, continuing a downward trend from April [14][15]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stimulate demand and address market distortions, as indicated by recent statements from the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. - The focus on completing the 'two重' construction project list by the end of June suggests a proactive approach to economic recovery [15].