Group 1: EPMI Overview - The February EPMI for strategic emerging industries decreased by 5.4 points to 44.6, primarily due to seasonal effects from the Spring Festival[3] - Compared to historical data, this year's EPMI decline is less severe than in 2021 and similar to 2024, while weaker than 2015 and 2018[3] - Only the new energy sector remains in the expansion zone, with the other six sectors below the 50-point threshold[3] Group 2: Production and Demand Indicators - Production index fell by 14.7 points, contributing 68% to the EPMI decline, while the procurement index decreased by 18.0 points[3] - Product order index dropped by 5.9 points and export order index fell by 8.1 points, indicating weak demand[4] - The production-to-order ratio was -3.9, down from 4.9, suggesting a significant shift in production dynamics[4] Group 3: Price Trends and Loan Conditions - Purchase prices increased by 5.3 points and sales prices rose by 2.8 points, continuing an upward trend for two and three months respectively[5] - The profit index decreased by 11.2 points, indicating pressure on margins despite rising prices[5] - Loan difficulty index remained stable, showing no signs of easing liquidity conditions[5] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - New energy is the only sector above 50, with a significant increase of 5.2 points, while energy-saving and environmental protection sectors rose by 3.1 points[6] - High-end equipment manufacturing and new-generation information technology sectors also saw increases in new product launches, indicating active innovation[5] - The overall price improvement amidst seasonal impacts suggests potential opportunities in the price line for March[8]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（ EPMI ）环比下降 5.4 个点至 44.6 。春节所在月份的季节性是 EPMI 下行的主要原因，与历史上春节位于 2 月中旬的年份相比，今年 EPMI 环比降幅小于 2021 年、基本持平于 2024 年、弱于 2015 和 2018 年的环比小幅上行。中观景气面同样回落， 7 大细分 行业中仅新能源行业位于景气扩张区间。 第二， 细分特征之一是生产端放缓斜率明显大于需求端，我们理解今年春节假期偏长（历史上首次 9 天假）可能是主要原因。生产量指标环比下降 14.7 个 点，采购量指标环比下行 18.0 个点，生产量指标贡献了 2 月 EPMI 下降的 68% ；代表需求端的产品订货和出口订货环比分别下降 5.9 和 8.1 个点。生产 量指标降至产品订货指标下方，也显示指标下行主要是春节假期偏长所带来的阶段性影响。进一步推测月底即将发布的 PMI 数据，历史上的 2 月本就以环比 下行为主，估计今年 2 月也会维持在低位。 第三， 细分特征之二是新产品投产较为密 ...

Group 1: EPMI Overview - In January 2026, the Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) increased by 0.9 points to 50.0, aligning with seasonal trends observed in previous years[3] - Historical data shows that in years with a late Spring Festival, the average EPMI change in January is an increase of 0.8 points, with 2015 showing a decrease of 1.5 points, while 2018 and 2024 showed increases of 2.8 and 1.0 points respectively[3] Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the seven sub-sectors of strategic emerging industries, three are in the expansion zone, consistent with November and December 2025[4] - Key indicators such as production volume, product orders, and export orders improved by 1.6, 1.5, and 1.0 points respectively in January 2026[4] - The production-demand ratio increased to 4.9, up from 4.8, indicating a positive outlook for demand post-holiday[5] Group 3: Price and Loan Indicators - In January 2026, purchase prices rose by 0.4 points and sales prices by 0.3 points, continuing an upward trend since July 2025[5] - The difficulty of obtaining loans increased by 0.4 points, marking a two-month recovery, potentially linked to liquidity conditions in early January[5] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors are leading in terms of economic performance, with biotechnology remaining above 60 in the high prosperity zone[6] - Compared to December 2025, the biotechnology sector increased by 1.2 points, while other sectors saw increases between 0.7 and 1.0 points[7] Group 5: Manufacturing PMI Expectations - Seasonal patterns suggest that the manufacturing PMI may experience slight declines in January, as seen in previous years, with an average decrease of 0.13 points historically[7] - High-frequency data indicates mixed performance in traditional industries, with some sectors like steel showing increased operational rates while others like automotive parts declined[8]

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) for January 2026 increased by 0.9 points to 50.0, indicating stable mid-level economic conditions with three out of seven sub-industries in the expansion zone, consistent with seasonal trends observed in previous years [1][5][6]. Sub-item Summaries - **Production and Demand Indicators**: In January, production volume, product orders, and export orders increased by 1.6, 1.5, and 1.0 points respectively. The production-to-demand ratio has risen for three consecutive months, suggesting positive demand expectations among emerging enterprises [2][10]. - **Price Signals**: Purchase prices and sales prices increased by 0.4 and 0.3 points respectively. The sales price index has been on an upward trend since July 2025, with only a brief decline in November 2025 [2][11]. - **Loan Difficulty Indicator**: The loan difficulty index rose by 0.4 points, marking a two-month recovery, potentially linked to liquidity conditions in early January [2][11]. Industry Analysis - **Leading Industries**: The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors have maintained high levels of prosperity since October 2025. The biotechnology sector is driven by a surge in patent applications, while the new energy vehicle sector benefits from both domestic and export growth [3][13]. - **Weak Industries**: High-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, and energy conservation sectors have shown weaker performance, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months [3][13]. Manufacturing PMI Expectations - Historical data suggests that the manufacturing PMI typically experiences slight declines in January during years with late Spring Festival dates. The impact of strong exports and concentrated fiscal policies in the previous quarter on January's production preparations remains to be observed [4][17]. Economic Data Overview - The high-frequency data for January appears stable, with strong port data and weak construction and real estate data. Hard data is expected to show decent year-on-year performance due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with results to be published in March [4][21].

Core Viewpoint - The November Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) decreased by 7.0 points to 52.7, which is a larger decline than the seasonal average of 3.0 points from 2014 to 2024, indicating a significant fluctuation related to the sharp rise in October [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The EPMI's decline reflects a "V-shaped" fluctuation, with October experiencing a significant rise of 7.3 points [1][3]. - The absolute EPMI value of 52.7 is below the historical average of 55.0 for November, marking it as the third lowest in the historical context [5]. Changes Compared to Previous Months - Compared to September, November saw a rebound in production but a decline in demand. Key changes include: 1. Production index decreased by 10.3 points, while procurement volume fell by 6.5 points [8]. 2. Prices continued to rise, with purchase prices and sales prices up by 2.2 and 3.0 points respectively compared to September [8]. 3. The financing environment improved, with loan difficulty indicators down by 0.6 points from September [8]. 4. Corporate investment and R&D activities remained cautious, with indicators for expectations, R&D activities, and new product investments down by 2.8, 2.2, and 2.2 points respectively compared to September [8]. Sector Performance - Among the seven emerging industries, the highest EPMI was recorded in the new energy vehicle sector, followed by new generation information technology and biotechnology, both maintaining a level above 55 for two consecutive months [11]. - The marginal improvements in the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors exceeded 5 points compared to September [11]. Upcoming Data and Market Implications - The manufacturing PMI data will be released at the end of the month, which is expected to provide more critical insights than the EPMI, as the latter is limited to emerging industries [15][18]. - Current high-frequency data indicates a weakening trend in durable goods retail, real estate sales, and construction workload compared to October [15][16]. Conclusion - The November EPMI reflects a seasonal slowdown without providing strong directional guidance. The upcoming PMI and BCI data are anticipated to be more significant for financial markets, which are currently experiencing volatility due to a lack of new fundamental guidance [18].

Core Viewpoint - The October EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) significantly increased by 7.3 points to 59.7, marking the largest historical rise for this month, driven by seasonal factors and improved economic conditions in various sectors [1][6][7]. Group 1: EPMI Overview - The October EPMI reached 59.7, which is above the seasonal average and indicates a recovery in economic sentiment [1][8]. - The historical average for October EPMI from 2014 to 2024 is 58.2, with this month's value exceeding the seasonal mean by 1.5 points [8][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Key indicators for production, product orders, and export orders rose by 11.7, 12.9, and 8.3 points respectively in October [2][11]. - The supply-demand ratio turned negative at -0.5, indicating that new orders are outpacing production [2][12]. - Price indicators for purchases and sales increased by 3.3 and 3.5 points respectively, contributing to a 9.6-point rise in profit indicators [2][13]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The sectors of new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and biotechnology showed significant growth, with increases of 14.9, 12.2, and 8.9 points respectively [3][18]. - Export orders for biotechnology, new generation information technology, and new energy vehicles rose by over 10 points, with biotechnology exports recovering to above 70 [3][19]. - The new energy sector saw a 6.6-point increase, likely influenced by positive price changes [3][20]. Group 4: Economic Context - The third quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.8% from 5.3% in the first half of the year, with production showing signs of recovery in October [5][27]. - The upcoming PMI data is expected to reflect a typical seasonal decline, but the EPMI's rise suggests underlying economic support [4][23].

Core Viewpoint - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for strategic emerging industries shows a seasonal decline but has turned positive year-on-year, indicating resilience in industrial prosperity despite a slight month-on-month decrease [1][5][6]. Group 1: PMI Overview - The July EPMI decreased by 1.1 points to 46.8, with only the new materials sector remaining in the expansion zone among seven sub-industries, reflecting a reduction in the number of expanding sectors [1][5][9]. - The absolute prosperity level is 0.7 points higher than the same period last year, marking a transition from negative to positive year-on-year growth [1][8]. Group 2: Sub-Indicators Analysis - In July, production, product orders, and export orders in emerging industries fell by 1.3, 1.5, and 2.2 points respectively, with export orders declining for two consecutive months [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio remained stable at 2.2, fluctuating within a narrow range for five months [2][12]. - Financing conditions improved, with the difficulty of obtaining loans decreasing by 1.4 points in July [2][14]. - A notable positive signal is the stabilization of sales prices, which increased by 1.7 points, while purchase prices continued to decline [2][14]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The new materials sector has shown a continuous increase in prosperity for three months, with a July index above 50, indicating strong performance compared to other sectors [3][17]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving environmental protection sectors maintained resilience, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors saw a decline in prosperity [3][17]. - Export orders for biotechnology and new energy vehicles fell significantly, by 17.7 and 10.1 points respectively [3][20]. Group 4: Market Implications - The EPMI data suggests a generally positive impact on the market, with the month-on-month decline being anticipated and the year-on-year increase indicating a slope lower than seasonal averages [4][22]. - The shift in key industry sales price indices from decline to increase reflects the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in stabilizing nominal growth [4][22].

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) fell by 3.1 points to 47.9 in June, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2014, indicating a weakening economic environment in the traditional manufacturing off-season [1][5][6]. Group 1: EPMI and Economic Indicators - The EPMI's decline is slightly greater than the seasonal average decline of 1.1 points observed from 2014 to 2024 [1][7]. - The absolute value of 47.9 is 1.4 points lower than the same period last year, reflecting a significant downturn in emerging industries [8][9]. - Among seven sub-sectors of strategic emerging industries, only two are in the expansion zone, a decrease of one from May [9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Production and product order indices fell by 5.5 and 6.0 points respectively in June [2][11]. - The production-to-order ratio increased to 2.0, indicating that demand is declining faster than supply, although it remains below the three-year average [2][12]. - Export orders decreased by 6.6 points, which is a larger drop than overall orders, suggesting a potential downward adjustment in export growth [2][11]. - Purchasing and selling prices fell by 2.4 and 1.2 points respectively, continuing a three-month trend of decline [2][13]. - Research and development activities increased by 2.1 points, ending a three-month decline, but new product launches have decreased for four consecutive months [2][15]. Group 3: Sector Performance - New materials and next-generation information technology are the only two sectors in the expansion zone, with new materials leading for two months and next-generation information technology for four months [3][16]. - The biotechnology sector showed a recovery after two months of decline, while other sectors experienced a slowdown in June [3][16]. - The electric vehicle sector saw a significant drop in production metrics, which was greater than the change in demand, possibly linked to strict accounting periods [3][15][17]. Group 4: Traditional vs. New Industries - The economy can be simplified into "traditional industries + new industries," with traditional industrial operating rates showing divergence [3][18]. - The steel and coking sectors have lower operating rates compared to May, while the chemical industry has seen some recovery [3][18]. - The EPMI data suggests that the manufacturing PMI may also see a slight decline in June [3][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trends in EPMI, PMI, and BCI since the beginning of the year show a gradual increase until March, followed by a pullback in April and stabilization in May [4][18]. - The real estate market's performance and the potential for construction industry counter-cyclical support will be critical moving forward [4][18].

Core Viewpoint - The EPMI for May, which reflects the economic climate of strategic emerging industries, increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, indicating a slight rebound beyond seasonal expectations due to recent financial policies and positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The EPMI's May reading of 51.0 is the third lowest for the same period historically, only better than May 2022 and May 2023 [7]. - The production, product orders, and export orders indices increased by 1.8, 2.9, and 10.8 points respectively, indicating a recovery in demand [2][8]. - The employment index saw a slight increase of 1.1 points, while the investment activities in emerging industries remained cautious, with R&D and new product launches declining by 2.1 and 0.1 points respectively [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - New generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved performance, largely driven by external demand and domestic policy support [14][15]. - The export orders for high-end equipment rose by 13.2 points, while energy-saving and environmental protection saw a 22.7-point increase, indicating strong sectoral recovery [15]. - Conversely, the biological industry experienced a decline in export orders, continuing a downward trend from April [14][15]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stimulate demand and address market distortions, as indicated by recent statements from the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. - The focus on completing the 'two重' construction project list by the end of June suggests a proactive approach to economic recovery [15].