证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 挂牌价调涨占比：截至 2025 年 11 月，12 个样本城市挂牌价调涨房源占比从 10 月的 5.5%下降 0.1 PCT 至 5.4%，同比降幅较 10 月收窄 7.0 PCT 至-48.6%。 周观点：（一）行业基本面下政策的边际变化可能以及针对未来的压力测试依 然是资本市场关注的要点；（二）判断净租金回报率与按揭利率之差收窄是推 动新房及二手房的合计总需求筑底的关键观察点；重视在供应缩量预期、供给 品质优化以及购房者画像显著分化推动下，新房市场供需环境较二手房更早出 现改善的特征；（三）相较于"博弈"基本面和政策，围绕合理估值区间做投 资或更可取。（1）从考虑潜在减值压力调整后的 PB 估值水平来看，当前板块 调整后 PB 约 1.2 倍，而更"纯粹"的销售前 5 重点房企调整后 PB 平均约 0.7 倍；（2）房地产板块在 24 年 9-10 月反弹后一度回调过半，近期板块有所反 弹但距离上一轮反弹高点仍有约 15%空间，而部分股票价格仍在相对低位，个 别标的当前股价距离前期反弹高点空间超 50%；（四）关注全国性和区域性房 企风险溢 ...

——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 27 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 27 日） | 新房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 27 日） | 二手房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 | 月 | 27 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 10 月 | | 样本城市 | | | | 样本城市 | -12% | | -收窄 | +10 PCT | | （39 城） | -33% | -扩大 | -6 PCT | （16 城） | | | | | | 一线城市 | -40% | -扩大 | -4 PCT | 一线城市 | -21% | | -收窄 | +6 PCT | | 城） （4 | | | | 城） （2 | | | | | | 二线城市 | -26% | -扩大 | -9 PCT ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Companies Involved**: China Resources Land (华润置地) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (华润万象生活) - **Industry**: Real Estate and Commercial Property Management Key Points and Arguments Sales and Development Performance - For the period of January to May, China Resources Land reported a signed sales amount of 869 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, ranking fourth in the industry [1][3] - The company maintained a cautious approach to land acquisition, with a total land acquisition amount of 42.7 billion CNY and an equity acquisition amount of 30.3 billion CNY, ranking sixth [1][3] - The expected total sales for the year is projected to achieve positive growth, with new supply mainly concentrated in the third and fourth quarters [1][3] Regular Business Performance - The company achieved a cumulative revenue of 20.4 billion CNY from January to May, representing a year-on-year growth of 10% [1][4] - Rental income from operational real estate increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching 13.3 billion CNY, with shopping center rental income growing by 17% [1][4] - Shopping center retail sales saw a year-on-year increase of 20%, with luxury shopping centers outperforming overall growth [1][4] Valuation Insights - China Resources Land is considered undervalued, with the implied current market value PE for its development business being only two times, based on operational real estate valuation [1][6] - The company’s total market value, combining operational real estate and development business, is estimated to reach 250 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 3% to 4% from current closing prices [1][10] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The stock price of China Resources Land has increased by over 20% year-to-date, while China Resources Mixc Lifestyle has seen a rise of over 30% [2][3] - The retail performance of shopping centers is expected to continue driving stock price increases, with a focus on the retail sales performance in the coming months [10][14] - Long-term expectations suggest that the company will benefit from market policy support and stabilization of housing prices in first and second-tier cities [11][12] Competitive Positioning - China Resources Land's rental growth expectations are stronger than those of Swire Properties, with a projected double-digit growth rate [7] - The company’s market share and operational performance in commercial real estate are superior to competitors like Great Eagle Holdings [7] Future Strategic Planning - The company plans to continue its asset injection strategy into REITs, which is expected to support core net profit and dividend growth [13] - The long-term valuation perspective suggests that the company could achieve a PE level of 15 times if it continues to enhance its operational management income [13] China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Insights - The company reported a retail sales growth of approximately 20% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025, aligning with initial expectations [15] - The light-asset expansion goal for 2025 is to complete ten projects, with three already completed by the end of May [16] - The stock price has reached new highs, with a year-to-date increase of 36%, despite a decrease in the free float ratio [17][18] Valuation and Market Space - As of the latest closing price, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle has a PE ratio of 20 times for 2025 and 18 times for 2026, with a projected compound growth rate of approximately 12% for core net profit from 2024 to 2027 [18] - The estimated market value, excluding interest income, is around 930 billion HKD, indicating limited space for growth compared to current market valuation [19]