策 略 研 究 申 购 策 略 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 任奕璇 (8621)23297818× renyx2@swsresearch.com 2025 年 07 月 13 日 华夏凯德商业 REIT 申购价值分析 投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 申购策略观点：华夏凯德商业 REIT 底层资产为长沙雨花亭项目、广州云尚项目，项目营业额稳步增长， 出租率持续提升，25 年到期租约 7 成左右已续签/换租，预期未来租金仍有增长空间。其中广州项目租 售比明显较高。原始权益人凯德商用储备项目丰富，资产证券化积累深厚。本基金预计募集资金为 22.97 亿元，预期项目资产未来 12 个月的公允价值区间为 23.47~29.23 亿元，IRR 为 6.90%~7.87%。 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 高江虹 实习生 魏琳 北京报道 为庆祝中瑞建交75周年、瑞典国宝级IP《长袜子皮皮》诞生80周年，来自瑞典的英格卡购物中心在京拉 开"宜起'皮'一夏"夏日玩乐季的序幕，这是长袜子皮皮首次开启中国巡展，该活动将在全国十城荟聚同 步开启，共同营造一个贯穿室内外、充满童趣与创意的夏日场景。 打造无可替代的线下体验 21世纪：面对线上分流，荟聚定义的"线下不可替代体验"核心要素是什么？您认为哪些体验类型无法被 数字化替代？ 朱洁敏：线上和线下并非竞争关系，而是互相补充和融合，线下不可替代的体验主要在于人和人之间的 社交与互动，荟聚主要从四个维度打造不可替代的线下体验。 第一个维度是所有荟聚的物理空间要让消费者感觉到舒适，除了北欧设计，我们还会不断创新空间场 景，比如，我们在上海荟聚设有一万平方米的公共空间，包括4楼屋顶的北欧小镇，并且设置了微风露 台。 第二个维度是品牌组合，我们在长沙和上海荟聚专门打造Well Village悠然荟，在整个街区引入了许多健 身与运动、个人护理、花店等品牌，希望提供轻松的生活方式，让大家来到就能舒缓压力。 三是体验，过去十年来，我们已经累计举办了4000场社区活动 ...

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 监管和行业动态： 1、中国证券报记者6月30日获悉，国家外汇管理局日前已向部分符合条件的 合格境内机构投资者（QDII）发放投资额度合计30.8亿美元。2、普益标准数据显示，截至6月 末，银行理财市场存续规模31.22万亿元，较年初增加5.22%。在季末回表压力与估值整改"半年 考"的双重考验下，当前净值型理财存续规模坚守31万亿关口，较5月规模变化不大。 同业创新动态： 招银理财创新费率模式，推出浮动管理费理财产品。工银理财参与IFBH港股 IPO基石投资，继三花智控后再下一城。交银理财首款慈善理财产品成功实现捐赠。建信理财成 功战略投资今年首单购物中心公募REITs 。 收益率表现： 上 周 （ 2025/6/30-2025/7/6 ， 下 同 ） 现 金 管 理 类 产 品 近 7 日 年 化 收 益 率 录 得 1.48%，环比上行5BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.27%，环比下行5BP。现金管理类 产品与货币基金的收益差环比上行10BP。上周各期限纯固收和固收+产品年化 ...

Core Insights - In collaboration with the iconic Swedish IP "Pippi Longstocking," Ingka Shopping Center launched the "Summer Fun with Pippi" event in Beijing [1][4] - Ingka Shopping Center operates 38 gathering experience centers across 15 global markets, with 10 locations in China under the brand "Hui Ju" [1][4] - The event aims to enhance consumer interaction through themed installations and activities, including pool parties and music festivals [4][5] Group 1 - The partnership with "Pippi Longstocking" marks the first exhibition tour of this IP in China [4] - The Beijing Hui Ju is designed to create a new urban entertainment space that integrates entertainment, social interaction, and cultural innovation [4][5] - Other Hui Ju locations across ten cities will also launch the "Summer Fun with Pippi" event, incorporating local cultural elements into their activities [4] Group 2 - Ingka Shopping Center emphasizes the deep integration of cultural IP and spatial creativity to provide enjoyable gathering experiences [5] - The company aims to continuously explore the potential of commercial spaces in cultural and social contexts, contributing to the development of urban cultural life [5]

"在这里可以满足大家一站式购物、餐饮、娱乐、社交等多种需求。百万张掖人，一座爱琴海，我们将以最优质的服务、最丰富的商品、最舒适的环境为 广大消费者带来极致的购物体验。"上海爱琴海商业集团副总裁张掖爱琴海购物中心总经理仲维航说。 今年以来，甘州区以不断满足群众多元化、差异化需求为导向，深挖消费市场潜力，加快打造消费新场景，积极推动精品旅游线路建设，持续深化"文旅 ＋"产业融合发展模式，为经济社会发展注入了新的动能。 张掖爱琴海购物中心的建成运营，是甘州区打造消费新场景的一次成功实践。这座大型商业综合体，聚焦首发经济，引进了星巴克、麦当劳、海底捞、金 逸影城等各类首进张掖、首进河西乃至首进甘肃的品牌80余家。 "纪念馆将探索红色＋生态＋文化的模式，形成全市红色旅游一盘棋、一张图，与各县区的红色场馆联合打造红西路军西征旅游线路，成为甘青旅游大环 线的必经站点。"甘州区高金城烈士纪念馆馆长曹渊说。 近年来，甘州区持续深化"文旅＋"产业融合发展模式，注重文旅IP建设，拓展文旅消费场景，取得了一系列"文旅＋"融合发展成效。大佛寺积极推进不可 移动文物数字化保护项目，推出数字IP推荐官"云灼"，编排原创舞蹈《灼光梵影》，让 ...

Group 1: Office Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, Shenzhen saw a new supply of 235,000 square meters of Grade A office space, which was below market expectations, leading to a total stock of 8.605 million square meters [1] - The vacancy rate for Grade A office space in Shenzhen increased by 1.2 percentage points to 27.8% by the end of Q2 2025, indicating a slight upward pressure on vacancy rates due to delayed supply [1] - The demand for office leasing is influenced by external uncertainties and structural pressures during the transition period of new and old economic drivers, resulting in weak incremental demand [1] Group 2: Rental Trends and Market Dynamics - To attract and retain tenants amid fierce competition, property owners are lowering rents and offering more diversified services to enhance tenant experience [2] - The average rent for Grade A office space in Shenzhen decreased by 5.3% to 160.1 yuan per square meter per month by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting ongoing downward pressure on rental prices [2] - The net absorption of Grade A office space in Shenzhen reached 68,000 square meters in the first half of 2025, supported by price advantages [2] Group 3: Retail Market Insights - The retail market in Shenzhen experienced a strong supply in the first half of 2025, with 303,000 square meters of new quality shopping centers, increasing the total stock to 7.477 million square meters [2] - The average rent for premium shopping centers in Shenzhen fell by 2.4% to 761.6 yuan per square meter per month by the end of Q2 2025, while the overall vacancy rate rose by 1.2 percentage points to 9.1% [2] Group 4: Transaction Trends and Investment Opportunities - In the first half of 2025, the total transaction volume for office properties in Shenzhen reached nearly 8 billion yuan, primarily driven by self-use buyers, indicating active self-use demand [3] - The market for large transactions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area showed significant fluctuations, with the average transaction price dropping to 500 million yuan, shifting demand towards lower total price assets [3] - Investors are increasingly interested in stable commercial projects with clear operational improvement potential, as well as logistics assets in the Greater Bay Area [3] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Insights - Market participants are encouraged to leverage favorable policy nodes, such as interest rate cuts and priority policies, to identify investment opportunities in clearly defined sectors [4] - The emergence of new economic infrastructure, particularly in artificial intelligence and biomedicine, is expected to attract investment, with data center investments returning to the spotlight [4] - The focus on commercial and urban infrastructure, along with opportunities arising from domestic demand growth and industrial transfer, will be critical for future investment strategies [4]

就发展趋势而言，甲级写字楼中新兴行业以及经营类业态的占比将上升，甲级写字楼的租户构成将更加 多元。深圳加大力度支持科技企业发展，未来更多优秀科技企业的涌现或将对甲级写字楼市场带来新的 增量需求。 深圳零售市场供应端表现亮眼 深圳商报·读创客户端首席记者 刘琼 7月3日，戴德梁行举办2025年中深圳商办市场新闻发布会。记者从发布会获悉，2025年上半年，全市投 入使用的甲级写字楼新供应面积23.5万平方米，全市甲级物业存量达到860.5万平方米；深圳零售市场供 应端亮眼，迎来共计30.3万平方米优质购物中心的新供应，全市优质购物中心存量增至747.7万平方米。 优秀科技企业涌现带来新需求 深圳高新技术产业持续发力，硬科技产业快速发展，为深圳办公楼租赁市场提供持续需求。戴德梁行研 究院副院长、华南及华中区研究部主管及董事张晓端分析，总部型物业也在吸引关联企业回流及产业链 上下游企业入驻；政府部门积极参与重点行业企业的孵化和培育，为相关企业提供低成本的优质办公空 间。上半年全市甲级写字楼累计净吸纳量6.8万平方米。 关于未来供应，结合已完成竣备但未启用的新项目，以及接近完工的项目，年内还有约122万平方米的 甲级写 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape of shopping malls in Jiangsu province, highlighting the ongoing battle among cities like Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, and others to attract consumers and establish themselves as commercial hubs [2][5]. Group 1: Key Commercial Centers - Nanjing Deji Plaza is recognized as a leading luxury shopping destination, generating sales of 24.5 billion in 2024, and is noted for its high-end brand presence, including Hermès, Chanel, and Louis Vuitton [18]. - Wuxi Henglong Plaza, known as "Little Shanghai," features a luxury brand matrix with over 30 high-end brands and has a daily foot traffic of over 64,000 in early 2025 [5][8]. - Suzhou Renheng Warehouse Street, opened in September 2023, combines cultural heritage with modern shopping, featuring over 170 brands and a daily foot traffic of over 50,000 [12][11]. Group 2: Emerging Players - Changzhou Wujin Wuyue Plaza, which opened in May 2012, has become a commercial leader in Changzhou, achieving sales of 2.5 billion in 2024 and hosting over 350 brands [14][16]. - Nantong CBD Dayoujing, operational since November 2011, has maintained an average annual sales of over 1.5 billion and attracts over 50,000 visitors daily [33][37]. - Taizhou Vanke City, opened in June 2021, has quickly established itself as a commercial hotspot, with over 250 brands and a daily foot traffic of over 40,000 [38][40]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the fierce competition among shopping malls in Jiangsu, with each city striving to enhance their commercial offerings and attract high-value consumers through innovative marketing and brand strategies [5][19]. - The concept of "first-store economy" is highlighted, where new brands and flagship stores are crucial for driving foot traffic and sales, as seen in various malls across the province [12][41]. - The integration of cultural elements and local aesthetics into mall designs is becoming a trend, as exemplified by projects like Xu Zhou Wen Miao and Huai An Hua Xin Mall, which aim to create unique shopping experiences [52][60].

Core Insights - The successful listing of CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT marks a significant milestone for the company, showcasing its commitment to national strategies and reform initiatives [3] - The REIT raised 1.58 billion yuan with a subscription multiple of 249 times, reflecting strong market interest [1][3] - The opening price on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 4.108 yuan per share, representing a 30% increase from the issue price of 3.16 yuan [1] Group 1: Brand and Operational Strategy - Continuous optimization of brand layout is crucial for maintaining commercial vitality, with the introduction of notable first-store brands in 2024 [5] - The shopping center has expanded its offerings with popular brands like M stand coffee and upgraded stores for Huawei and Xiaomi, enhancing its appeal [5] - Major stores such as Decathlon and BHG continue to attract significant customer traffic, contributing to a vibrant shopping environment [5] Group 2: Experience and Engagement - Creative events like retro coffee art festivals and youth music festivals are designed to attract younger consumers and enhance social engagement [6] - The upcoming summer shopping festival features seven major events aimed at driving consumer participation and cross-city traffic [6] - Collaborations with international art IPs and innovative activities are redefining the shopping experience and establishing a social hub for all age groups [6] Group 3: Technological Integration - The introduction of technology-driven experiences, such as AI technology fairs and VR experiences, is reshaping consumer perceptions and engagement [7] - Promotional strategies have been enhanced with various consumer incentives, effectively driving sales and customer loyalty [7] Group 4: Sustainability and Green Initiatives - The implementation of an AI marketing platform has led to over 800,000 online and offline members, promoting a green consumption model [8] - The project has achieved significant sustainability milestones, including a reduction of 1,000 tons of carbon emissions annually through solar energy [8] - Recognition as a "green consumption development model" underscores the project's commitment to ecological sustainability [8] Group 5: Financial Performance - The REIT's underlying assets have shown strong operational resilience, with projected revenue for 2024 reaching 2.331 billion yuan, a significant increase from 1.888 billion yuan in 2023 [9] - The average occupancy rate has remained stable above 95% over the past three years, indicating robust demand [9] Group 6: Investment Potential - The REIT is projected to distribute net cash flows of approximately 75.73 million yuan and 76.43 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a distribution rate of around 4.79% and 4.84% [10] - The strategic coverage of key urban areas enhances the REIT's competitive advantage and potential for future growth [10] - The project maintains a dominant market position within a five-kilometer radius, with no immediate competition, solidifying its status as a commercial leader [10]

Policy News - Guangzhou plans to implement prefabricated construction for all new residential land sales starting in 2026, aiming for 80% of new building area to be prefabricated by 2030, with a total industrial output value exceeding 500 billion yuan [1] - Shenyang has approved six housing provident fund optimization measures to boost housing consumption, including extending the minimum 15% down payment discount until the end of 2025 and increasing loan limits for high-quality residential purchases [1] - Qingdao has announced new housing provident fund policies, allowing a maximum loan of 1.7 million yuan for couples and 1.1 million yuan for individuals, with adjustments to repayment ability coefficients [2] Market News - Beijing's land auction concluded for the first half of 2025, with a total of 22 residential land parcels sold for approximately 100.56 billion yuan, including a plot in Fengtai district sold for 2.08 billion yuan [3] - Hangzhou's land auction for the first half of 2025 saw a total transaction amount exceeding 116 billion yuan, with an average premium rate of 30.5% [4] - Nanjing's final residential land sale for the first half of 2025 was completed after 56 bidding rounds, with a total price of 1.028 billion yuan and a floor price of 15,717 yuan per square meter [5] Real Estate Company News - Over ten real estate companies, including Kaisa and Sunac, have received approval for debt restructuring, indicating a shift towards refinancing and restructuring as the industry moves past its debt peak [6] - Vanke reported that it has completed approximately 19.7 billion yuan in domestic and overseas bond repayments in 2024, with over 16 billion yuan repaid in 2025, supported by significant financing from its major shareholder [6] - China Overseas Land has announced plans to raise over 1.355 billion yuan through a public REIT for its shopping center project in Foshan, Guangdong [8]