Core Insights - The real estate market in Ganzhou is experiencing a decline in housing prices, with new residential prices decreasing by 0.2% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year in October 2025, while second-hand housing prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year [1][7][13]. New Housing Market - In October 2025, new housing prices in Ganzhou continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 2% [3][13]. - Throughout the first ten months of 2025, new housing prices in Ganzhou have generally been on a downward trend, with only January and May showing increases [3][13]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Ganzhou has also seen a decline, with prices decreasing by 0.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year in October 2025 [7][8]. - Since April 2025, second-hand housing prices have been declining in all months except for April, indicating a persistent downward trend [8][9]. Price Trends by Housing Size - For housing sizes, prices for units of 90 square meters and below remained stable, while prices for units between 90-144 square meters and those above 144 square meters decreased by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively [5][11]. - Overall, all size categories of housing experienced a month-on-month price decline [11]. Comparison with National Trends - Nationally, in October 2025, the average housing prices in 70 major cities also saw a decline, with new housing prices decreasing by 0.5% and second-hand housing prices by 0.7% [13]. - Ganzhou's price decline is less severe compared to the national average, indicating a relative resilience in its housing market [13][15]. Market Dynamics - The ongoing decline in housing prices may be attributed to an increase in supply in the second-hand housing market, particularly in popular areas, leading to intensified market competition and downward price pressure [9][15]. - Ganzhou's housing market stability may be supported by urban development plans, population inflow, and policy support, which have contributed to a certain level of demand [15][16].

Summary of the Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in China, specifically analyzing the performance of the top 100 real estate companies in September 2025 and the overall market trends. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative sales amount nationwide decreased by 11.8% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to January-August, indicating a slowing market decline [2][3] - In September, the sales amount of the top three real estate companies increased by 2.6% year-on-year, while the overall sales of the top 100 companies grew by 0.4%, a significant recovery compared to August [2][4] - The sales amount for the top 100 companies in September reached 252.78 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 22.1% [3] Market Supply and Demand - New housing supply in 30 key cities increased significantly by 55% month-on-month to 10.2 million square meters in September, although it still represented a 15% year-on-year decline [2][7] - The new housing transaction area in September for 30 key cities rose by 18% month-on-month but fell by 5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in first-tier cities while the overall market remains below last year's levels [2][10] Market Dynamics - The new housing market's absorption rate decreased by 4 percentage points to 38%, suggesting ongoing pressure despite signs of recovery [2][13] - The second-hand housing market saw a month-on-month decline of 1% but a year-on-year increase of 10%, with first-tier cities showing policy effects [2][15] Performance by Company Tier - The top three companies (e.g., Poly, Greentown, China Overseas) showed a month-on-month positive growth of 2.6%, while the top 10 companies experienced a slight decline of 0.9% [4] - Companies like China Resources, Jianfa, and China Railway Construction saw month-on-month increases exceeding 30% in September, while others like Longfor and Vanke faced declines of 30%-40% [5][6] Future Market Expectations - The new housing transaction volume is expected to remain low in October 2025, with a potential widening of year-on-year declines due to a high base from last year's rapid market rise [19] - The overall market is anticipated to face downward pressure, with second-hand housing transaction momentum slowing [19][20] Policy and Market Outlook - Current policies in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are unlikely to change significantly in the short term, but long-term trends suggest a gradual easing of restrictions [26] - Potential policy measures include lowering loan interest rates and providing financial subsidies for mortgage loans to stimulate the market [26][27] Price Trends - The second-hand housing prices are currently in a rapid decline, particularly in first-tier cities, with no clear indication of when they will stabilize [25] - The high-end residential market (properties priced above 30 million yuan) is expected to remain stable, while the mid-range market (1 million to 1.5 million yuan) may face demand challenges [24] Additional Important Insights - The divergence between new and second-hand housing transactions is notable, with new housing supported by high-end private residences while second-hand housing is primarily driven by budget-conscious buyers [23] - The performance of the real estate market in September was influenced by last year's low base and the introduction of quality land parcels by local governments [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate stocks continue to decline, with major companies experiencing significant drops, while some show slight gains. The overall market remains under pressure, and recovery will take time, although there may be a temporary increase in activity due to seasonal factors and favorable policies [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major Hong Kong real estate stocks such as China Overseas Land & Investment, Sunac China, and others have seen declines exceeding 6%, while some companies like Ronshine China have increased by nearly 5% [1]. - The latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics indicate that in August, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month, with second-tier cities down 0.3% and third-tier cities down 0.4% [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - In August, second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 0.6% and third-tier cities a decrease of 0.5% [1]. - The decline in prices indicates ongoing downward pressure in the real estate market, necessitating a process for recovery [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term prospects may improve with the release of favorable policies and the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaching [1]. - The real estate industry is expected to transition from a model characterized by "high debt, high leverage, and high turnover" to a focus on high-quality development, emphasizing product quality, operational service, and sustainable development [1].