最新的央行三季度金融数据显示，房地产市场的回暖程度超出了预期，这无疑给市场注入了一剂强心剂。与其说市场一如既往的低迷，不如说，一些积极的 信号正在浮现。 然而，购房者数量的增加并非在所有城市都普遍存在，市场分化现象依然明显。在一线城市中，上海的新房价格仍在上涨，10月份环比上涨了0.3%，而北 京、广州和深圳则出现了小幅下降。在二线城市中，苏州、杭州等城市的成交量回暖明显。尽管三线城市整体仍在下降，但二手房成交量已经有所好转，10 月份三线城市二手房成交面积同比微涨0.2%，这是一个积极的信号。 面对房价下跌的现状，为何仍有人选择购房？原因很简单，对于有刚性需求的购房者来说，例如结婚、子女教育等，无论何时都需要购房。而当前良好的政 策环境和较低的利率水平，恰好提供了一个难得的机会。更重要的是，现在的购房者也更加理性，他们不再指望通过购房快速致富，而是更多地将购房视为 改善生活质量的一种方式。 国家统计局的数据也显示，今年1月至10月，商品房销售降幅正在收窄，待售面积连续8个月减少，房地产企业的资金状况也在逐步改善，市场正在逐渐企 稳。 当然，这并不意味着现在是盲目购房的最佳时机。对于三四线城市的房产，购房者仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - Schroders is actively addressing market challenges in Hong Kong's commercial real estate sector [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Schroders owns three properties acquired ten years ago related to its investment business, currently managing issues with these assets [1] - One property has been fully leased, and related loans have been renegotiated, while the other two properties are under negotiation with banks [1] Group 2: Market Insights - The recovery of the residential real estate market in Hong Kong is viewed as a positive signal, although residential properties are not the primary investment focus for the company in Hong Kong [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery as September existing home sales slightly increased due to mortgage rates dropping to the lowest level in over a year, alleviating repayment pressure for buyers [1] - Technology and semiconductor stocks rebounded after previous declines, contributing to a collective rise in the three major U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones up 0.31%, S&P 500 up 0.58%, and Nasdaq up 0.89% [1] - Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by approximately 1.7% [1] Group 2 - Intel reported better-than-expected earnings after the market closed on Thursday, leading to a more than 7% increase in its stock price in after-hours trading [1]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Outlook - UBS's head of Asia Pacific real estate research, Lin Zhenhong, emphasizes that rental trends are key indicators for market recovery, maintaining the forecast that the mainland real estate market will bottom out in the second half of 2026 [1] - Lin explains that only when rental prices stabilize will residents reassess the cost-effectiveness of home buying, leading to a shift from renting to buying [1] - Over the past three to four years, declining property prices and rents have led many to postpone home purchases, resulting in a vibrant rental market in first-tier cities, where about half of the population relies on renting for housing needs [1] Group 2: Market Segmentation and Trends - The mainland real estate market is currently experiencing structural differentiation, with strong sales in the high-end residential segment due to previous price controls limiting developers' willingness to build high-end projects [1] - In Hong Kong, despite current pressures from rising unemployment and short-term oversupply, a supply-demand imbalance is expected in the next three to four years, leading to a positive outlook for the residential market [1] Group 3: Hong Kong Office Market Insights - UBS Greater China real estate analyst Liang Zhanjia notes that with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) is expected to decrease from around 3% to 2.2% by the end of the year, further dropping to 1.6% next year, which will support the Hong Kong property market [2] - The office market in Hong Kong is anticipated to see a steady increase in rental rates from 2027 to 2028 due to a significant reduction in new office supply by 2026, although rental prices are expected to continue declining until the end of 2026 [2] - A recent major transaction involving Alibaba and Ant Group purchasing a commercial office building for $925 million (approximately 7 billion HKD) has sparked discussions about a potential recovery in the Hong Kong office market [2] Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Currently, investors account for only 20% of buyers in the office market, significantly lower than the historical average of 50%, primarily due to cautious bank attitudes towards office mortgage loans and high interest rates affecting rental yields [3] - Despite the low investor participation, signs of a bottoming out in rental prices for Grade A office spaces in Hong Kong are emerging [3]

Core Insights - The number of cities with year-on-year increases in new residential property prices rose from 5 in August to 8 in September, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Taiyuan, Urumqi, Nanning, Yichang, and Sanya [1][4] - The year-on-year decline in new residential property prices in first-tier cities narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, while second and third-tier cities saw a reduction of 0.3 percentage points [1][4] - The positive trend in property prices is attributed to ongoing policy optimizations since August, which have begun to show effects in the market [1][7] Price Trends - In September, new residential property prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% year-on-year, with Shanghai experiencing a 5.6% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 2.6%, 4.1%, and 1.8% respectively [4][5] - The year-on-year decline in second and third-tier cities was 2.1% and 3.4%, with both categories also seeing a narrowing of their decline by 0.3 percentage points [4] Market Dynamics - The second-hand residential market also showed a trend of narrowing year-on-year declines, with first-tier cities experiencing a 3.2% drop, which is a 0.3 percentage point improvement [5][6] - The market is entering a stabilization phase after significant adjustments, indicating that some cities have cleared property price bubbles [6][8] Policy Impact - Recent supportive policies, such as lowering mortgage rates and optimizing housing fund withdrawal conditions, have contributed to the market's recovery [7] - For instance, Beijing's policy changes included lifting restrictions on the number of homes families can buy outside the Fifth Ring Road and increasing the maximum amount for second-home mortgage loans [7] Market Activity - Actual market transactions reflect this recovery, with notable sales figures from new projects, such as the successful launch of Zhongjian·Yunhe Jiuyuan, which sold 573 units for a total of 4.7 billion yuan [7] - The overall market indicators suggest a solid foundation for stabilization, with a focus on potential opportunities in the upcoming year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The land market in Yiwu and Yongkang is experiencing significant growth, with local private enterprises leading the way in land acquisition, contrasting with the more subdued market in Hangzhou. The emergence of "vertical buildings" is a key driver of this trend, reflecting the resilience of the local real estate market [5][6][7]. Group 1: Land Market Dynamics - Yiwu's recent land auction saw a premium rate of 47.5%, with a floor price reaching 28,067 yuan/m², highlighting the competitive nature of the local market [5]. - In 2023, Yiwu has completed 19 residential land transactions with a maximum premium rate of 55.5% and an average of 20%, while Yongkang has completed 9 transactions with a peak of 72.2% [5][6]. - Local private enterprises dominate the land acquisition in Yiwu and Yongkang, with 84% and 67% of residential land parcels acquired by local firms, respectively [6]. Group 2: Real Estate Product Trends - The "vertical building" concept, characterized by a mixed-use design of commercial and residential spaces, has gained popularity in Yiwu, with a significant increase in supply this year [7][8]. - Sales data indicates that new residential sales in Yiwu reached 910,000 m² from January to September 2023, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, signaling a recovery in the market [7]. - High-end improvement products, such as those offered by Green City, are also performing well, with some projects achieving over 90% sales rates [9][10]. Group 3: Economic and Demographic Factors - Yiwu's economic vitality is underscored by over 1.2 million business entities, with a high proportion of the population being entrepreneurs, contributing to strong housing demand [11]. - The city has a unique demographic structure, with a resident population of 1.918 million, of which approximately 70% of homebuyers are from outside the region, indicating a robust demand for housing [12]. - Yongkang's real estate market is primarily driven by local residents seeking improvement housing, with a trend of collaborative land acquisition among local business owners to mitigate investment risks [13].

Core Insights - The 2025 Dalian Autumn Housing Festival concluded after 19 days, featuring both online and offline exhibitions to promote quality real estate projects [1] - The event saw significant upgrades in policy support, with the introduction of various subsidies aimed at different demographics, marking the largest subsidy effort in recent years [1] - The festival successfully attracted a large number of visitors and participants, indicating a positive trend in the Dalian real estate market [1] Policy Upgrades - The local government implemented talent housing vouchers and a 1% purchase subsidy on total housing costs, with additional region-specific policies providing further financial support [1] - Subsidies can be stacked, enhancing the overall financial incentives for potential homebuyers [1] - The event showcased 38 active real estate projects in key districts, with online participation from over 140 projects, providing ample options for buyers [1] Event Highlights - The festival featured special product sharing sessions for prominent real estate developers, promoting new products and designs [1] - A combination of real estate and home furnishing promotions aimed to reduce the financial burden on buyers [1] - The event leveraged popular local attractions to enhance visitor engagement and showcase the vibrancy of Dalian [1] Market Performance - The festival recorded a total of 1,776 transactions, with a transaction area of 188,000 square meters and a total sales amount of 2.62 billion yuan, reflecting a 40% increase in transaction area compared to the spring housing fair [1] - The primary buyer demographic ranged from 30 to 60 years old, with a preference for larger living spaces between 90 to 120 square meters, indicating a shift towards improved living standards [1] - The successful outcomes of the festival signal a gradual recovery in the Dalian real estate market, promoting a healthy cycle of development [1]

Summary of the Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in China, specifically analyzing the performance of the top 100 real estate companies in September 2025 and the overall market trends. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative sales amount nationwide decreased by 11.8% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to January-August, indicating a slowing market decline [2][3] - In September, the sales amount of the top three real estate companies increased by 2.6% year-on-year, while the overall sales of the top 100 companies grew by 0.4%, a significant recovery compared to August [2][4] - The sales amount for the top 100 companies in September reached 252.78 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 22.1% [3] Market Supply and Demand - New housing supply in 30 key cities increased significantly by 55% month-on-month to 10.2 million square meters in September, although it still represented a 15% year-on-year decline [2][7] - The new housing transaction area in September for 30 key cities rose by 18% month-on-month but fell by 5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in first-tier cities while the overall market remains below last year's levels [2][10] Market Dynamics - The new housing market's absorption rate decreased by 4 percentage points to 38%, suggesting ongoing pressure despite signs of recovery [2][13] - The second-hand housing market saw a month-on-month decline of 1% but a year-on-year increase of 10%, with first-tier cities showing policy effects [2][15] Performance by Company Tier - The top three companies (e.g., Poly, Greentown, China Overseas) showed a month-on-month positive growth of 2.6%, while the top 10 companies experienced a slight decline of 0.9% [4] - Companies like China Resources, Jianfa, and China Railway Construction saw month-on-month increases exceeding 30% in September, while others like Longfor and Vanke faced declines of 30%-40% [5][6] Future Market Expectations - The new housing transaction volume is expected to remain low in October 2025, with a potential widening of year-on-year declines due to a high base from last year's rapid market rise [19] - The overall market is anticipated to face downward pressure, with second-hand housing transaction momentum slowing [19][20] Policy and Market Outlook - Current policies in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are unlikely to change significantly in the short term, but long-term trends suggest a gradual easing of restrictions [26] - Potential policy measures include lowering loan interest rates and providing financial subsidies for mortgage loans to stimulate the market [26][27] Price Trends - The second-hand housing prices are currently in a rapid decline, particularly in first-tier cities, with no clear indication of when they will stabilize [25] - The high-end residential market (properties priced above 30 million yuan) is expected to remain stable, while the mid-range market (1 million to 1.5 million yuan) may face demand challenges [24] Additional Important Insights - The divergence between new and second-hand housing transactions is notable, with new housing supported by high-end private residences while second-hand housing is primarily driven by budget-conscious buyers [23] - The performance of the real estate market in September was influenced by last year's low base and the introduction of quality land parcels by local governments [20]

Domestic Market - During the National Day holiday, the real estate market showed signs of recovery, with increased promotional efforts from property developers leading to higher transaction volumes in several cities [1] - In cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan, developers offered special discounts and subsidies, resulting in significant increases in visitor and transaction numbers [1] - For instance, in Shenzhen's Longgang District, visitor and transaction volumes surged by 40% to 50% compared to normal days [1] - In Shanghai, a property in Qingpu District saw over 200 groups of potential buyers and a transaction volume of 63 million yuan in the first four days of the holiday [1] - In Guangzhou, a new project sold over 200 units on its opening day and continued to attract significant interest, with over 1,000 groups visiting [1] - Overall, the sales area of real estate in Hubei province increased by over 10% year-on-year during the holiday [1] - However, financing for property companies remains constrained, with a year-on-year decline of 35% in the third quarter [1] Overseas Market - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is approximately 94.1%, with a very low chance of maintaining current rates [2] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks imported from other countries starting November 1, 2025, which is expected to have a limited impact on China's heavy truck exports [2] - The EU plans to reduce steel import quotas and impose a 50% tariff, but this is also expected to have a limited effect on China's steel exports, which primarily go to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2] Spot Market - During the National Day holiday, domestic construction steel prices remained stable, with Tangshan steel billet prices stabilizing at 2,950 yuan per ton [3] - Major steel mills maintained stable rebar prices, while trading activity was limited due to cautious sentiment among traders [3] - Despite some steel mills conducting maintenance, overall steel supply, particularly for plates, remains high [3] - Steel exports increased, which may help alleviate the domestic oversupply situation [3] - The Singapore iron ore swap price saw a slight increase during the holiday, suggesting a potential for a modest rise in steel prices post-holiday, followed by fluctuations [3]

Core Insights - The Chengdu real estate market is experiencing a surge in activity during the "Silver October" period, with increased visitor numbers and transaction volumes observed in various projects [1][2][5] - New projects are being launched, and existing projects are being refreshed, leading to a greater supply and potential demand release in the market [1][9] Group 1: Market Activity - During the National Day holiday, many real estate projects in Chengdu reported a significant increase in visitor numbers, with some projects experiencing double the usual weekend traffic [5][10] - Specific projects, such as New Hope D23 and Vanke's Jinshang Yanghua, have seen high levels of interest, with the former selling over 40 units in September and the latter achieving a monthly sales rate of 80 units [4][8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In September, Chengdu saw a new housing supply of approximately 1.06 million square meters, driven by multiple projects obtaining pre-sale permits before the holiday [9][10] - The average number of visitors to new housing projects increased to about 260 groups, reflecting a 41-group month-on-month rise, with the average transaction volume per project reaching 11 units [10] Group 3: Promotional Activities - Various real estate companies are launching promotional activities during the holiday, including limited-time discounts and special offers to attract buyers [8][9] - Local governments are also initiating housing-related events and support policies, such as purchase subsidies and promotional exhibitions, to stimulate market activity [9][10]