Core Insights - The real estate market in China has undergone a fundamental shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market, leading to significant challenges for homeowners trying to sell their properties [3][4][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rapid urbanization over the past two decades created immense housing demand, resulting in rising property prices and a seemingly perpetual boom [3] - Currently, most families already own homes, and the demand for new purchases has decreased due to demographic changes and a decline in the younger population [3] - The expectation of rising property prices has diminished, prompting investors to sell off properties, leading to an increase in listings and a shift to a buyer's market [3] Group 2: Buyer and Seller Psychology - Sellers often price their properties based on previous years' prices, struggling to accept the reality of asset depreciation [4] - Buyers, on the other hand, are hesitant to purchase, anticipating further price drops, resulting in a significant gap in price expectations between buyers and sellers [4] Group 3: Financing and Market Conditions - Despite a slight decline in property prices, the actual barriers to purchasing have increased, with banks being more cautious in approving loans for second-hand homes [5] - The tightening of loan conditions and the absence of favorable interest rates have further strained buyers' purchasing power [5] - Developers are incentivizing new home sales with various promotions, making new properties more attractive compared to second-hand homes [6] Group 4: Changing Perceptions of Real Estate - The market has shifted from a scenario where buying a home required competition to one where developers actively promote new properties [7] - This change reflects a broader re-evaluation of real estate as a commodity subject to market forces, countering the previous belief that property prices would only rise [7] Group 5: Asset Liquidity Challenges - For many families, real estate constitutes a significant portion of their assets, and the inability to sell properties leads to liquidity issues [8] - While well-located and reasonably priced properties still attract buyers, those that are outdated or poorly located struggle to find buyers, indicating a growing divide in market demand [8] Group 6: Strategies for Homeowners and Buyers - Homeowners are advised to adjust their expectations and set prices based on recent sales rather than past highs to facilitate transactions [9] - Buyers now have more options and negotiating power, allowing them to make informed decisions rather than rushing into purchases [9]

近日有上海博主发帖，上海房价，暴跌有点狠！21年478万没有卖的，现在只能挂243万了，要想成交，恐 怕得看到220万了，直接腰斩。不知道这4年一个人能不能赚到250万。 5779 582 + 61 HS 98 > 保利铃兰公馆 3室1厅 90㎡ 成交价格 478元 单 ... 53112元/平 63人关注过 · 10419人浏览过 480万| 成交比挂牌少2万 手塑 楼层 中楼层 咨询楼层 2021.02.27 南北 成交 朝向 无 申,税 楼型 板楼 这究竟是咋回事？ 我们来仔细看看该博主提供的信息。 精装 年代 暂无数据 普通住宅 商品房 用途 权属 房源介绍和业主自荐 介绍 /小元言 火山诗话 如同示，一个名叫保利玲兰公馆3室1厅90平米的房子，在2021年2月以478万成交，单价核到53112元。 总带看次数 成交周期 195天 35 灰 共调价3次 > 转成交率2.9% 辈修 而在如今，类似小区临港新城的一套同户型房子，居然挂牌价调整到243万，单价已经跌到2.7万。关键 是，就算如此挂牌，这套房子还不知道能不能卖出去，最终成交价会是多少。 | 概览 | 动态 | 评价 | 小区 | 推荐 | | ...

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the real estate market in China, particularly focusing on new and second-hand housing transactions in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In early June 2025, new home transaction volumes in 40 key cities decreased by 36% month-on-month, with significant contraction in first-tier cities [1][3]. - The second-hand housing market remains relatively stable, with absolute transaction volumes still higher than new homes, indicating overall market weakness [1][4]. - In Shanghai, second-hand home transactions showed a declining trend, with April's volume barely maintaining above 20,000 units, dropping further in May [8][9]. Price Trends - The price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have been fluctuating downwards, falling below levels seen before policy changes in February 2025 and September 2024, suggesting potential further price declines in the coming months [1][6][7]. - In Shanghai, the proportion of high-end second-hand homes priced above 11 million yuan decreased from 3.7% in April to 2.63% in May, while the proportion of affordable homes under 3 million yuan increased [11]. Inventory and Supply Issues - Most cities have inventory turnover cycles exceeding 18 months, with insufficient new home supply leading to increased absolute inventory levels [1][23]. - Private enterprises hold less than 20% of the land market, while state-owned enterprises dominate with 80%, indicating a lack of competition and innovation in land acquisition [22]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain stable until the end of 2025, but challenges may arise in 2026 due to limited high-quality land supply and the potential exhaustion of high-end buyers [18][30]. - The government is anticipated to implement further policies to stabilize prices in core cities, with a focus on maintaining market confidence [41]. Policy Impact - Continuous policy support is deemed necessary for stabilizing price expectations in core cities, with recommendations to invest in development stocks during key political meetings [2][31]. - The impact of rumored restrictions on resale has affected market sentiment, leading to some developers offering discounts on existing properties [32]. Regional Differences - The performance of the real estate market varies significantly across different regions, with core urban areas showing more resilience compared to suburban regions [12][25]. - The price dynamics in Shanghai's inner and outer rings reflect a disparity, with inner ring prices continuing to rise while outer ring prices remain stagnant [15]. Transaction Volume and Market Dynamics - The transaction volume for second-hand homes is expected to face challenges due to various factors, including limited quality supply and economic uncertainties [33]. - The overall trend in the second-hand market shows a gradual increase in transaction volume, driven by a growing inventory base and suppressed new home supply [34]. Conclusion - The real estate market in China is currently characterized by a mix of stability and underlying challenges, with significant reliance on government policies to navigate through the complexities of supply, demand, and pricing dynamics [30][41].