（原标题：地产微观：数据透视与结构格局） 库存方面，市场去化节奏稳步推进，商品房待售面积已连续 8 个月环比下降，10 月末较 9 月减少 322 万平方米。去库存政策效果在逐步释放。但 10 月末待售面积同比仍增长 3.3%，说明库存总量仍处相对 高位。后续政策仍有发力空间，库存消化仍是市场回稳的重要课题。 房地产市场持续盘整，从城市梯度差异到产品与企业的双重筛选，结构分化特征显著，正勾勒市场新布 局逻辑。这一过程需通过数据细致观察。 降速中的改善信号 开发投资领域仍处于调整阶段，1-10 月全国房地产开发投资完成额同比下降 14.7%，住宅投资下滑 13.8%，新开工面积同比降幅达 19.8%。这组数据直接反映房企策略方向。数据显示房企 "保交付、控 开工" 的核心策略仍在持续，房企对市场的投资信心修复尚需时间积累。开发端复苏动力仍显不足。 销售数据呈现 "总量承压、内生改善" 特点，1-10 月商品房销售面积、销售额同比分别下降 6.8% 和 9.6%，看似延续下行态势，但较去年同期降幅已收窄 9.0 和 11.3 个百分点。内生改善迹象在逐步显 现。10 月单月销售面积同比大跌 19.6%，并非市场复 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [4]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the sales data from real estate companies showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.5% in monthly sales and a cumulative decrease of 16.1% for the first four months of the year [4]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in the market, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities, suggesting a "structurally strong + weak overall" market outlook [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to enhance housing supply and optimize land storage [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April 2025, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments (24.6 billion), China Overseas (20.1 billion), and China Resources (17.3 billion), with the threshold for the top three dropping from 21.3 billion in the previous year to 17.3 billion [2][4]. - The cumulative sales for the first four months of 2025 reached 756.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.1% [4]. Company Performance - Poly Developments reported a sales amount of 87.6 billion (YOY -9%), while China Resources and China Overseas reported 68.5 billion (YOY -5%) and 66.5 billion (YOY -19%) respectively for the first four months of 2025 [4]. - Notable performers in April included China Fortune Land Development (+73% YOY) and Sunshine City (+69% YOY), indicating that some companies are outperforming the industry average [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate companies in core cities, including China Overseas, Poly Developments, and China Resources, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries like Beike-W and I Love My Home [4]. - It also suggests looking into undervalued companies such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group, and highlights the potential of property management firms like China Resources and Poly Property [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has crossed the peak of public debt and is resuming land investments, although short-term sales pressure remains, and diversified operations are stable [2] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 75.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.22%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of a loss of 6.12 billion yuan [1][4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.97 billion yuan, down 14.32% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of a loss of 658 million yuan [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a signed contract amount of 685.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.4% year-on-year, with a signed area of 4.714 million square meters, down 46.2% year-on-year, and an average contract price of 14,500 yuan per square meter, down 17.0% [3] - The property management segment generated a revenue of 7.81 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.78% year-on-year, while rental and other income amounted to 4.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.23% [3] Debt Management - The company adhered to a cash flow-centric operational strategy, repaying approximately 20 billion yuan of public market debt due in 2024, with a year-end interest-bearing debt balance of 73.5 billion yuan, of which 96.3% is bank loans [2] - The debt financing weighted average cost decreased by 31 basis points to 4.05% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue focusing on investment opportunities in core cities and plans to replenish quality land reserves [2] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are -3.29 billion yuan and -1.64 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 450 million yuan [4]