Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, with the process divided into three key phases, requiring patience from stakeholders [2][4]. Group 1: Market Confidence and Sales Performance - The Politburo meeting on September 26 established confidence in stabilizing the real estate market, leading to significant improvements in market sentiment from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with total annual sales of new and second-hand homes increasing by 120 million square meters [2][6]. - However, in Q2 2025, both sales volume and prices showed signs of weakening, indicating potential market volatility [2][10]. - The overall sales area of new homes has declined by approximately 55% from historical peaks, while second-hand home sales have decreased by about 6% [6]. Group 2: Policy Framework and Implementation - The current real estate policy framework consists of three main categories: 1. Policies aimed at adjusting supply-demand structures and restoring price expectations to achieve the first two phases of stabilization [3][20]. 2. Measures to mitigate and address risks arising from the downward cycle of real estate, preventing non-linear impacts on the macroeconomy [3][20]. 3. Long-term institutional policies aimed at correcting and preventing issues exposed during the current cycle [3][20]. - The first category includes adjustments to interest rates and purchase restrictions, as well as urban village renovations and the acquisition of existing land and housing [21][22]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the industry is expected to continue its bottoming phase, but there is considerable potential for recovery in the medium to long term [4][41]. - The anticipated scenario for 2025 is a "medium policy" situation, where total sales performance may slightly exceed expectations due to the prolonged effects of the September 26 policy [4][41]. - The recovery of total housing sales to historically reasonable levels is expected to create significant upward potential, particularly as the balance of new and second-hand homes improves [4][41]. Group 4: Risk Management and Structural Adjustments - The real estate sector faces risks related to high leverage among developers, which has led to liquidity crises and issues such as the "guarantee delivery" problem [31][32]. - Effective management of credit risks in real estate companies is crucial to avoid negative impacts on market sentiment and financial stability [32][34]. - The government is encouraged to adopt a more proactive approach in supporting systemically important real estate companies while balancing moral hazard and fairness in the restructuring process [33][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][18]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its performance, achieving a revenue of RMB 278.8 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11%. The core net profit was RMB 25.42 billion, with a significant contribution from recurring business [6][7]. - The overall gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 21.6% and 9.2%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [6][7]. - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 37%, with an expected annual dividend of RMB 1.319 per share [6][7]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 2,511 billion in 2023, RMB 2,788 billion in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 3,950 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.6% [4][21]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 25.6 billion, with a decline of 18.5% from the previous year, but expected to recover in subsequent years [4][21]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21% from 2025 onwards, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to be around 8.5% by 2027 [4][21]. Market Position and Business Segments - The company achieved a contract signing amount of RMB 261.1 billion in 2024, ranking third in the industry, with a market share in 25 major cities [9][10]. - The operational performance of shopping centers reached a retail sales figure of RMB 195.3 billion, with an operating profit margin of 61%, marking a historical high [10][11]. - The asset management business grew to a scale of RMB 462.1 billion by the end of 2024, indicating a strong foothold in the market [11][12]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to have an EPS of RMB 3.46 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10-11 times, suggesting a reasonable market capitalization range of RMB 269.5 billion to RMB 296.5 billion [18][19]. - The estimated fair value per share is projected to be between HKD 37.80 and HKD 41.58 [18][19].