而在深圳，记者也对多位购房者进行了采访，在目前房价有所下跌加上楼市政策环境宽松的背景下，受 访者均表示会优先考虑公积金和商业的"组合贷"，希望公积金的贷款额度能进一步提高，而且可以直接 提取用于购房首付。 近段时间以来，多个城市继续调整住房公积金政策，也被视为楼市政策利好持续释放的体现。 近日，郑州住房公积金管理中心发布通知，正式开通住房公积金个人住房贷款网上申请渠道，实现贷款 服务从"人工受理"向"网上受理"的数字化转型。经此渠道，缴存人员申请公积金贷款的周期将大大缩 短。 同样在河南省，洛阳、驻马店两地也于近期优化公积金政策。其中，自11月10日起，洛阳市住房公积金 个人住房贷款最高额度将上浮10%，单职工缴存家庭最高可贷77万元，双职工缴存家庭最高可贷93.5万 元。驻马店也提高住房公积金个人住房贷款额度，在原有政策基础上将住房公积金个人贷款额度上浮 10%，从原有的单缴存人贷款额度最高60万元、双缴存人贷款额度最高70万元，上调为单缴存人贷款额 度最高66万元、双缴存人贷款额度最高77万元。 从各类政策出台频次来看，根据中指研究院的监测，10月以来各地出台政策超过30条，其中涉及公积金 政策超过16条 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to be in the early stage of "stabilization" with a "narrowing decline" in transaction volume and prices, transitioning through a three-step process: transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3][8][9]. Market Performance - The overall performance of the real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline in total transaction volume for both new and second-hand homes, with estimates showing a decline of 6.8% compared to 8.0% in 2024 [3][7]. - The cumulative price decline for second-hand homes remains consistent, while the average price decline for new homes is influenced by structural factors related to "good properties" [3][7]. Future Projections - In a neutral scenario for 2026, total housing transaction volume is projected to decline by 5.0%, with new homes and second-hand homes expected to decrease by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [4][10]. - The real estate investment decline is anticipated to stabilize at -14.9% in 2026, with a focus on land acquisition and construction as leading indicators [5][10]. Policy and Structural Adjustments - The pace of policy implementation in 2025 is expected to be slow, with challenges in the effective execution of supply-demand adjustment policies, such as land storage and urban village renovations [9][10]. - The need for proactive risk prevention measures is emphasized, particularly regarding credit risks for real estate companies and pressures from mortgage defaults [9][10]. Investment Indicators - The willingness of real estate companies to acquire land and start new projects is likely to remain under pressure, with new construction area expected to decline by 16.1% in a neutral scenario for 2026 [5][12]. - The construction area and physical completion area are projected to decrease by 9.3% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting a slow construction pace and reduced project intensity [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expectation of better performance compared to the overall market [5]. Core Insights - In October 2025, the sales of real estate companies saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 42% and a cumulative decrease of 20% for the year [5]. - The report highlights that the sales amount for 50 real estate companies in October 2025 was 196.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [5]. - The report emphasizes the need for further supportive policies to stabilize the market, as the current situation remains weak despite previous policy interventions [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October 2025, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments (21 billion yuan, YOY -50%), China Overseas (18.6 billion yuan, YOY -55%), and China Merchants Shekou (15.4 billion yuan, YOY -31%) [5]. - The cumulative sales from January to October 2025 for Poly Developments reached 222.7 billion yuan (YOY +22%), China Overseas at 189.1 billion yuan (YOY +21%), and China Resources at 169.6 billion yuan (YOY +17%) [5]. Policy Implications - The report notes that the government has been urged to implement stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, with recent policies including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in major cities [5]. - The report suggests that the "good housing" policy could lead to a breakthrough in the market, promoting a recovery in core cities and shifting the operational model of real estate companies from finance to manufacturing [5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [5]. 2. Commercial real estate companies: New City Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Development, Huafa [5]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, I Love My Home [5]. 4. Property management: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales decline in September has narrowed, with the total sales area of commercial housing reaching 85.31 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, which is a slight improvement from August [5]. - The total sales amount in September was 802.5 billion yuan, down 11.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 2.2 percentage points compared to August [5]. - The report indicates that the inventory of unsold commercial housing has continued to decrease, with a total of 760 million square meters at the end of September, marking seven consecutive months of reduction [5]. - Overall, the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, but the recovery process will take time, with key measures including interest rate cuts and cost reductions to enhance rental returns [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, the sales area and amount showed a year-to-date decline of 5.5% and 7.9%, respectively, but these figures are less severe compared to the full year of 2024 [5]. - The sales area in September was 85.31 million square meters, and the sales amount was 802.5 billion yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline compared to previous months [5]. Investment and Construction - New construction starts in September decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 5.9 percentage points from August [5]. - The completion of projects increased by 1.5% year-on-year, showing a significant improvement of 22.9 percentage points compared to August [5]. - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 21.3%, with the decline expanding by 1.7 percentage points from August [5]. Financial Aspects - The report notes that funding for real estate development has decreased by 11% year-on-year, with domestic loans down by 14.5%, indicating a tightening financial environment [5]. - The report emphasizes that the stability of the investment sector is still dependent on improvements in sales and funding [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality real estate companies such as China Overseas Development, China Merchants Shekou, and others, which are expected to benefit from market rotation and recovery [5].

9月30日，中指研究院最新发布《2025年三季度中国房地产市场总结与趋势展望》。 编审：莫 非 监制：张立果 出品：城楼网/城楼财经 （4）政策展望：随着三季度经济运行压力有所加大，四季度宏观政策加力必要性有所提升，而9月美联储开启降 息周期也为国内货币政策释放了更多空间。为实现全年5%左右的经济增长目标，并推动"十四五"圆满收官，预计 四季度宏观政策将进一步加力。8月国务院会议重申"采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势"，释放积极信 号。预计四季度房地产政策将继续聚焦"止跌回稳"目标，推动已出台各项政策加快落实，同时增量政策也存在一 定预期。此外，10月下旬召开的二十届四中全会，将研究关于制定"十五五"规划的建议，有望为房地产未来五年 发展指明方向。 （5）市场展望：考虑到上半年多家头部房企在核心城市获取了较多优质地块，这些地块有望在四季度逐步入市， 新增供应增加有望对核心城市新房销售形成一定支撑，"好城市+好房子"仍具市场机会；而近两年新项目供应偏少 的城市，则仍将以去库存为主，市场分化趋势或将延续。二手房方面，重点城市挂牌量维持高位，预计四季度交 易活跃度将温和回升，但"以价换量"态势短期难改。供给端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is at a critical juncture of deep adjustment and policy easing, indicating a gradual soft landing rather than a rapid reversal [1][2][3] Policy Signals and Market Response - Recent policy adjustments, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in multiple cities, signal a strong commitment to stabilize the real estate market [1][4] - The current phase is characterized by a transition from "policy bottom" to "market bottom," with a solid foundation being built for market recovery through ongoing policy support [3][4] - Core cities are showing early signs of stabilization in transaction volumes, while lower-tier cities are still in the process of bottoming out, reflecting a gradient recovery [3][4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The policy focus is on demand-side recovery, aiming to stimulate reasonable housing demand and improve market expectations [2][5] - The current policy measures are designed to activate demand, optimize inventory, and guide expectations, thereby providing strong support for price stabilization [5][6] - Challenges remain on both supply and demand fronts, with lingering liquidity pressures on some real estate companies and cautious income expectations among residents [6][8] Strategic Transformation for Real Estate Companies - Real estate companies must adopt a strategic transformation to navigate the current cycle, emphasizing a shift from high-leverage development to high-efficiency operations [9][10] - Companies are encouraged to refine their business models, focusing on becoming stable suppliers in the affordable housing sector or premium developers in the market [9][10] - Emphasizing product and service value is crucial, with a focus on green, healthy, and smart housing solutions to enhance brand loyalty and customer engagement [9][14] REITs and Financing Models - The acceleration of REITs issuance is providing diversified financing channels, reducing reliance on traditional bank credit and promoting asset securitization [10][12] - REITs have enhanced investor participation and market stability, contributing to the overall confidence in the real estate sector [13][14] - The shift towards REITs is facilitating the recycling of existing assets and improving asset turnover efficiency, creating a positive feedback loop for investment [12][13]

Key Points Summary Hot News - China's real estate market is moving towards stabilization with narrowing year-on-year declines in commercial housing sales and residential prices, but more efforts are needed [2] - Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [2] - China opposes the US's intention to impose "secondary tariffs" on China over the purchase of Russian oil, threatening to take necessary measures to safeguard its interests [2] - The US has opened a "window" to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives under Section 232 [2] - China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain, and had candid, in - depth, and constructive communication on economic and trade issues such as TikTok [3] Key Commodities - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, LPG, rapeseed meal, and Shanghai gold [4] Plate Performance - In terms of plate price changes, the non - metallic building materials plate rose 2.66% [6] - Regarding plate capital ratios, precious metals accounted for 30.14%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 21.15%, coal - coking - steel - ore at 14.41%, etc [7] Asset Performance - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% daily, rose 0.07% monthly, and 15.18% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.22% daily, 5.46% monthly, and 31.84% annually [8] - In the fixed - income market, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12% daily, 0.00% monthly, and fell 1.03% annually [9] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index rose 1.24% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 2.95% annually; London spot gold rose 1.00% daily, 6.73% monthly, and 40.19% annually [9] - Other assets: the US dollar index fell 0.27% daily, 0.50% monthly, and 10.25% annually; the CBOE volatility remained unchanged daily, fell 3.91% monthly, and 14.93% annually [9]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a differentiated adjustment, with a continued decline in housing prices but signs of recovery in market confidence due to favorable policies [1][5]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In August, the sales prices of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing [1]. - Shanghai's new housing prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year, leading the 70 cities [2]. - The average transaction price of new residential properties in Shanghai reached 82,653 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 2.38% and a year-on-year increase of 5.37% [2]. Group 2: Market Activity and Supply - The introduction of the "8.25 New Policy" has led to increased activity on both the supply and demand sides in Shanghai's real estate market [3]. - In the week of August 25-31, 14 projects were launched, accounting for 68% of the total new housing supply for August [3]. - The number of "sunshine listings" has increased, indicating a shift in buyer sentiment and a reduction in the wait-and-see attitude [3]. Group 3: Second-Hand Housing Market - In August, the second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, while second and third-tier cities saw declines of 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively [4]. - The number of second-hand housing listings nationwide increased by 9.69% year-on-year, reaching 2.5464 million units [4]. - Only one city, Changchun, saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, rising by 0.1% [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Conditions - From January to August, national real estate development investment totaled 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [5]. - The sales area of new residential properties decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3% [6]. - The market is expected to enter a traditional peak season, with real estate companies likely to accelerate project launches in core cities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China shows signs of stabilization with a narrowing decline in sales and an increase in new home prices in several cities, indicating potential recovery in the sector [1][18][24]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first eight months of 2023, the total sales area of new commercial housing reached 573.04 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, but this decline is 13.3 percentage points narrower than the same period last year [18]. - The sales revenue from new commercial housing was 550.15 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 16.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [18]. - As of the end of August, the inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased for six consecutive months, with a total of 76.169 million square meters, down 3.17 million square meters from July [21]. Group 2: Price Trends - In August, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, new home prices increased month-on-month in nine cities, including Shanghai and Hangzhou, with the number of cities experiencing price increases rising by three compared to July [1][17]. - The year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities was 0.9%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [8][17]. - The year-on-year decline in second and third-tier cities was 2.4% and 3.7%, respectively, with declines narrowing by 0.4 percentage points [8][16]. Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The government has implemented various policies to stabilize the real estate market, including adjustments to housing policies and financial incentives, which have shown some positive effects [24][25]. - Analysts suggest that the market is transitioning from a phase of rapid decline to one of stabilization, with expectations for improved market conditions in the coming months [22][26]. - The upcoming "Golden September" marketing season is anticipated to boost market activity, particularly in core cities, as developers increase their sales efforts [26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Viewpoints - The financing environment remains loose, and the effects of destocking are becoming increasingly evident, with a continued trend towards stabilization in the real estate market [1][4]. - The report highlights that the sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continued policy support and the need for further interest rate cuts to enhance rental yield attractiveness and accelerate land acquisition [6][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In August, the sales amount of commercial housing was 544.9 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to July [6]. - The total area of unsold commercial housing at the end of August was 760 million square meters, marking a continuous reduction for six months, indicating effective destocking [6]. Financial Trends - Real estate investment in August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with new construction down 20.6% and completion down 21.4% [6]. - Domestic loans showed a positive growth of 1.1% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in the financing environment for the industry [6][5]. Company Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product quality, specifically mentioning companies like Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others as potential investment opportunities [5].