房地产止跌回稳
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股指周报:短期股指或有震荡,但趋势不变-20251228
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-12-28 11:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term stock index may fluctuate, but the trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to attack the previous high. The shock digestion since November has entered the end, and from December to January of the next year, it is likely to enter the window period of cross - year layout. The market is expected to show a shock climb again. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended to layout and go long on the spring market of the stock index. In terms of operation, hold mid - term long positions and continue to add positions opportunistically; hold call options. [13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Last week, the broader market continued to rebound and continuously stood above the 60 - day moving average. The four major indexes all rose, with the small - and medium - cap indexes leading the gains. Most of the style indexes rose, with the growth and cyclical style indexes leading the gains, and only the consumer style index falling. Most of the Shenwan industries rose, with the non - ferrous metals, military, electrical equipment, and electronics sectors leading the gains, while the tourism, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. [8][18][21] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with the new export orders rebounding by a relatively large 1.7%, which is related to the mitigation of Sino - US tariffs; the ex - factory price and the purchase price of raw materials rebounded again after two months of decline. [8][36] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously for 30 months to 5.89% as of November 2025, and continues to decline. [8][47] - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market; the State Council issued the new Nine - Article Guidelines to strongly support investor returns; the central bank created two new types of monetary policy tools; the implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually. [8][55] - The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. The performance of the four major indexes rebounded again in the third quarter of 2025. [8][73][77] - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.5341, with an upper - limit value of 15.66, and it is at the 87.09th percentile since 2010, at a relatively high level since 2010. However, as performance rises, the valuation will decline. The ChiNext valuation is at a relatively low level. [10][90][92] - In terms of margin trading, the net inflow in 2024 was 274.8 billion yuan; as of December 25, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 674.3 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the first five trading days was 45.9 billion yuan. The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.7946 trillion yuan this year, and the total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale this year is 386 billion yuan. The market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 18.00%. As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion. The net inflow of index funds in 2025 was 104.9 billion yuan, while the net outflow of active equity funds was 444.9 billion yuan. From April 7 to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 176.3 billion yuan, and last week it increased by 47.3 billion yuan. As of December 19, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 79.3 billion yuan. [11][97][101] Strategy Views and Outlook - The broader market fluctuated and rose for eight consecutive days last Friday, with a dive during the session and the trading volume increased to more than 2 trillion yuan, remaining above the 60 - day moving average. The market sentiment declined, and there may be short - term fluctuations, but the trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to attack the previous high. It is recommended to layout and go long on the spring market of the stock index. In terms of operation, hold mid - term long positions and continue to add positions opportunistically; hold call options. [13] 2. Index Industry Trend Review - Last week, the broader market continued to rebound and continuously stood above the 60 - day moving average. The four major indexes all rose, with the small - and medium - cap indexes leading the gains. Most of the style indexes rose, with the growth and cyclical style indexes leading the gains, and only the consumer style index falling. Most of the Shenwan industries rose, with the non - ferrous metals, military, electrical equipment, and electronics sectors leading the gains, while the tourism, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. [8][18][21] 3. Main Contract and Basis Trend - The four major indexes continued to rebound. In terms of the basis, it started from the quarterly main contract and is at a relatively high level. In terms of the arbitrage of each main contract, IC/IF and IC/IH fluctuated and stabilized, IH/IF stabilized; IM/IF and IM/IH fluctuated weakly; IM/IC fluctuated and declined. [25][30] 4. Policy and Economy Economy - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with the new export orders rebounding by a relatively large 1.7%, which is related to the mitigation of Sino - US tariffs; the ex - factory price and the purchase price of raw materials rebounded again after two months of decline. [36] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle. PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and the decline has been narrowing continuously since March 2024. The decline of PPI has been narrowing again since November 2025. In October, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises fell to 1.8%, the inventory continued to rise to 3.7%, demand declined, and there was passive inventory replenishment. [39] - China's social financing scale in November was 2488.5 billion yuan, an increase of 152.8 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Among them, new RMB loans were 405.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 117 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a decrease of 206.3 billion yuan in household loans. Government bonds were 1204.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 106 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. [42] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously for 30 months to 5.89% as of November 2025, and continues to decline. [47] Policy - New Nine - Article Guidelines: It aims to improve the overall quality of listed companies from the source and promote listed companies to pay more attention to rewarding shareholders. [51] - Implementation Plan for Promoting the Entry of Medium - and Long - Term Funds into the Market: It includes measures such as increasing the actual investment ratio, extending the assessment period, and forming a joint force to implement incremental policies, which is expected to bring a large amount of long - term funds into the A - share market. [54] - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market, including measures to boost the capital market, promote the entry of medium - and long - term funds, support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and promote the stable development of the real estate market. [55] - The central bank created new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies and a stock repurchase and increase re - loan, and carried out MLF operations and reverse repurchase operations, and adjusted relevant interest rates. [58] - A large - scale debt - resolution measure was announced, which will directly increase 10 trillion yuan of local debt - resolution funds and significantly reduce the local debt - resolution pressure. [59] - Accelerate the construction of first - class investment banks and investment institutions to better promote the high - quality development of the capital market, including implementing differentiated supervision for different types of securities companies. [60] - The 14th Five - Year Plan: It is a crucial five - year period with multiple strategic goals to be achieved. It involves aspects such as the international trade pattern, Sino - US relations, supply - chain reconstruction, and domestic economic development. [63] - The US mid - term elections: The policy environment in the next year will be more favorable for risk assets. The mid - term election schedule and expected fiscal support are also mentioned. [64][66] 5. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. The performance of the four major indexes rebounded again in the third quarter of 2025. [73][77] 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.5341, with an upper - limit value of 15.66, and it is at the 87.09th percentile since 2010, at a relatively high level since 2010. However, as performance rises, the valuation will decline. The ChiNext valuation is at a relatively low level. [10][90][92] 7. Federal Reserve Interest Rate - Not provided in the given content 8. Capital Flow - In terms of margin trading, the net inflow in 2024 was 274.8 billion yuan; as of December 25, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 674.3 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the first five trading days was 45.9 billion yuan. [97] - The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.7946 trillion yuan this year, and the total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale this year is 386 billion yuan. [101] - The market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 18.00%, and the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with an increase of 758.4 billion yuan after deducting the scale growth. [103][104] - The market value of the national team increased by 4 billion in the third quarter, with little change, while the CSI 300 index rose by 17.9%. The mid - and long - term A - share market value increased by nearly 90 billion in the third quarter, and the market value of A - shares held by mid - and long - term A - share investment entities increased by 1.8145 trillion in the first three quarters of 2025. [106][108] - From April 7 to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 204 billion yuan; last week, the ETF scale continued to increase by 27.7 billion yuan. As of December 26, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 107 billion yuan. [111] - As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion. [117] - In October 2025, the deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 1.8574 trillion yuan again, and the total deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 6.6688 trillion yuan this year. Overall, funds are flowing from the banking system to non - bank channels such as the capital market and wealth management products. [121] - As of last weekend, the IPO financing in 2023 was 356.5 billion yuan; in 2024, it was 67.3 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 125.3 billion yuan. [129] - Last week, the net reduction of major shareholders in the secondary market was 14.2 billion yuan, at a relatively high level. [134] - The unlocking volume in the first half of 2026 is relatively small. [138] 9. Technical Analysis - The daily - line trend charts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are provided, showing the price trends of these indexes from December 26, 2024, to December 23, 2025. [142][144][146][148]
深圳住房公积金提取新规来了,12月15日起施行
证券时报· 2025-12-05 14:21
12 月 5 日,深圳市住房公积金管理委员会发布新版《深圳市住房公积金提取管理规定》 ( 以下 简称 " 提取新 规 " ) ,提取新规聚焦职工多元化住房消费需求,增设多项住房消费类提取情形,放宽提取条件,更好满足 职工刚性和改善性住房需求,新规将于 2025 年 12 月 15 日起施行。 深圳市住房公积金提取新规出台。 提取新规提出新增购房首付款提取,职工及家庭成员在深圳市购买住房,在未支付或未全额支付购房首付款 前,可以提取住房公积金用于筹集首付款。家庭名下有1套住房的,可全额提取住房公积金账户余额;家庭名 下有2套住房的,可提取账户余额的60%;上述提取额度均不超过尚未支付或未足额支付的购房首付款。提取 新规明确,职工如同时满足购房提取和购房首付款提取条件,仅能选择其中一种方式申请提取。 与此同时,职工为筹集购房首付款提取的住房公积金,可计入其住房公积金账户余额,用于计算本套住房申请 普通住房公积金贷款(不含商转公贷款)的可贷额度,真正实现"既提又贷"。例如,职工家庭住房公积金账户 余额为10万元,全额提取用于筹集购房首付款后,还可申请普通住房公积金贷款,这10万元仍能用于可贷额度 计算。 版权声明 ...
2026年中国经济展望:风鹏正举
Ping An Securities· 2025-12-02 01:15
Economic Growth Outlook - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%[4] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is projected to be 53.5% in 2025, up from 44.5% in 2024[26] - The anticipated growth rate of social retail sales is around 4% in 2026, with final consumption expenditure growth expected to exceed 5%[51] Export Performance - China's export share is projected to continue its upward trend, with an expected growth rate of 4-5% in 2026[21] - As of July 2025, China's export share reached 15.1%, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating strong global competitiveness[14] Investment Stability - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline of around 10.2% in 2026, a significant improvement from previous years[55] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly in 2026, supported by new policy tools and long-term special bonds[74] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% in 2026, driven by food prices, while PPI is projected to recover from a decline of -2.8% in 2025[95][116] - The core CPI is expected to maintain a higher level of around 0.8-1% in 2026, reflecting improved consumer confidence and spending[110] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The narrow deficit ratio is projected to increase to 4-4.3% in 2026, with a special bond issuance of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[127] - New local special bonds are expected to be in the range of 5-5.5 trillion yuan, marking an increase from 2025[128]
“利好”持续释放 多城继续优化公积金政策
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-11-13 13:42
Group 1 - Recent adjustments in housing provident fund policies across multiple cities are seen as a continuous release of favorable policies for the real estate market [1][2] - Zhengzhou has launched an online application channel for housing provident fund personal housing loans, significantly shortening the loan application cycle [1] - In Henan Province, cities like Luoyang and Zhumadian have increased the maximum loan limits for housing provident fund personal loans by 10%, with Luoyang's maximum loan for single-income families rising to 770,000 yuan and dual-income families to 935,000 yuan [1] Group 2 - Since October, over 30 policies have been introduced across various regions, with more than 16 related to housing provident funds, focusing on increasing loan limits, optimizing withdrawals, and extending repayment periods [2] - In Chongqing, new measures have been implemented to optimize the withdrawal of provident funds for purchasing existing homes, including relaxing conditions for full payment purchases [2] - Interviews with homebuyers in Shenzhen indicate a preference for combining provident fund and commercial loans, with hopes for increased loan limits and direct withdrawals for down payments [2] Group 3 - Experts suggest that the strong local attributes of the housing provident fund and its low-interest rates cater well to local demand, particularly from first-time buyers and those upgrading their homes [3] - The real estate market is expected to see new policies aimed at adjusting the use of provident funds, particularly for urban renewal and new real estate models, as part of long-term stabilization efforts [3] - The current market situation requires a multi-faceted approach to break the negative cycle in the real estate market, with gradual policy relaxations being insufficient on their own [3]
中金2026年展望 | 房地产:“止跌回稳”,徐徐图之(要点版)
中金点睛· 2025-11-04 23:48
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to be in the early stage of "stabilization" with a "narrowing decline" in transaction volume and prices, transitioning through a three-step process: transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3][8][9]. Market Performance - The overall performance of the real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline in total transaction volume for both new and second-hand homes, with estimates showing a decline of 6.8% compared to 8.0% in 2024 [3][7]. - The cumulative price decline for second-hand homes remains consistent, while the average price decline for new homes is influenced by structural factors related to "good properties" [3][7]. Future Projections - In a neutral scenario for 2026, total housing transaction volume is projected to decline by 5.0%, with new homes and second-hand homes expected to decrease by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [4][10]. - The real estate investment decline is anticipated to stabilize at -14.9% in 2026, with a focus on land acquisition and construction as leading indicators [5][10]. Policy and Structural Adjustments - The pace of policy implementation in 2025 is expected to be slow, with challenges in the effective execution of supply-demand adjustment policies, such as land storage and urban village renovations [9][10]. - The need for proactive risk prevention measures is emphasized, particularly regarding credit risks for real estate companies and pressures from mortgage defaults [9][10]. Investment Indicators - The willingness of real estate companies to acquire land and start new projects is likely to remain under pressure, with new construction area expected to decline by 16.1% in a neutral scenario for 2026 [5][12]. - The construction area and physical completion area are projected to decrease by 9.3% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting a slow construction pace and reduced project intensity [5][12].
10月销售降幅扩大,政策亟待进一步呵护:——2025年10月房企销售数据点评
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-02 06:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expectation of better performance compared to the overall market [5]. Core Insights - In October 2025, the sales of real estate companies saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 42% and a cumulative decrease of 20% for the year [5]. - The report highlights that the sales amount for 50 real estate companies in October 2025 was 196.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [5]. - The report emphasizes the need for further supportive policies to stabilize the market, as the current situation remains weak despite previous policy interventions [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October 2025, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments (21 billion yuan, YOY -50%), China Overseas (18.6 billion yuan, YOY -55%), and China Merchants Shekou (15.4 billion yuan, YOY -31%) [5]. - The cumulative sales from January to October 2025 for Poly Developments reached 222.7 billion yuan (YOY +22%), China Overseas at 189.1 billion yuan (YOY +21%), and China Resources at 169.6 billion yuan (YOY +17%) [5]. Policy Implications - The report notes that the government has been urged to implement stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, with recent policies including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in major cities [5]. - The report suggests that the "good housing" policy could lead to a breakthrough in the market, promoting a recovery in core cities and shifting the operational model of real estate companies from finance to manufacturing [5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [5]. 2. Commercial real estate companies: New City Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Development, Huafa [5]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, I Love My Home [5]. 4. Property management: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [5].
国家统计局公布2025年1-9月全国房地产开发投资及销售数据:单月销售降幅收窄,开竣工增速反弹
Ping An Securities· 2025-10-20 09:34
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales decline in September has narrowed, with the total sales area of commercial housing reaching 85.31 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, which is a slight improvement from August [5]. - The total sales amount in September was 802.5 billion yuan, down 11.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 2.2 percentage points compared to August [5]. - The report indicates that the inventory of unsold commercial housing has continued to decrease, with a total of 760 million square meters at the end of September, marking seven consecutive months of reduction [5]. - Overall, the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, but the recovery process will take time, with key measures including interest rate cuts and cost reductions to enhance rental returns [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, the sales area and amount showed a year-to-date decline of 5.5% and 7.9%, respectively, but these figures are less severe compared to the full year of 2024 [5]. - The sales area in September was 85.31 million square meters, and the sales amount was 802.5 billion yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline compared to previous months [5]. Investment and Construction - New construction starts in September decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 5.9 percentage points from August [5]. - The completion of projects increased by 1.5% year-on-year, showing a significant improvement of 22.9 percentage points compared to August [5]. - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 21.3%, with the decline expanding by 1.7 percentage points from August [5]. Financial Aspects - The report notes that funding for real estate development has decreased by 11% year-on-year, with domestic loans down by 14.5%, indicating a tightening financial environment [5]. - The report emphasizes that the stability of the investment sector is still dependent on improvements in sales and funding [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality real estate companies such as China Overseas Development, China Merchants Shekou, and others, which are expected to benefit from market rotation and recovery [5].
城楼网|四季度房地产政策有望加力 市场延续分化复苏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 14:19
Market Supply and Demand - The new housing market has been operating steadily since 2025, but sales have weakened since the second quarter, with a slight recovery in September due to improved supply [1] - The second-hand housing market continues to "exchange price for volume," with a year-on-year increase in transaction volume for key cities in the first three quarters, showing a rebound in September after a temporary cooling period from June to August [1] Housing Prices - From January to August, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 5.08%, with an expanding month-on-month decline in the second quarter, while the third quarter maintained a low decline, indicating that "exchange price for volume" remains the market trend [1] - In contrast, the new housing market saw a cumulative price increase of 1.54% in 100 cities from January to August, driven by the entry of quality improvement projects, although there is significant differentiation among cities, with third and fourth-tier cities still experiencing price declines [1] Land Market - Real estate companies have focused on acquiring land in core cities this year, leading to a 13% year-on-year increase in land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities, although the transaction area decreased by about 9% [2] - The land market has cooled since the third quarter, with preliminary statistics showing a year-on-year decline of approximately 14% in the area and 9% in transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities [2] Policy Outlook - With increasing economic pressure in the third quarter, there is a growing necessity for stronger macro policies in the fourth quarter, especially following the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, which provides more room for domestic monetary policy [2] - The government has reiterated the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for continued focus on "stabilizing and stopping the decline" in real estate policies in the fourth quarter [2] Market Outlook - The acquisition of quality land by leading real estate companies in core cities is expected to support new housing sales in the fourth quarter, while cities with limited new project supply will continue to focus on inventory reduction, indicating a continuation of market differentiation [3] - The transaction activity in the second-hand housing market is expected to moderately rebound in the fourth quarter, although the "exchange price for volume" trend is likely to persist in the short term [3]
范为:房地产“止跌回稳”是渐进式复苏
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-09-30 11:02
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is at a critical juncture of deep adjustment and policy easing, indicating a gradual soft landing rather than a rapid reversal [1][2][3] Policy Signals and Market Response - Recent policy adjustments, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in multiple cities, signal a strong commitment to stabilize the real estate market [1][4] - The current phase is characterized by a transition from "policy bottom" to "market bottom," with a solid foundation being built for market recovery through ongoing policy support [3][4] - Core cities are showing early signs of stabilization in transaction volumes, while lower-tier cities are still in the process of bottoming out, reflecting a gradient recovery [3][4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The policy focus is on demand-side recovery, aiming to stimulate reasonable housing demand and improve market expectations [2][5] - The current policy measures are designed to activate demand, optimize inventory, and guide expectations, thereby providing strong support for price stabilization [5][6] - Challenges remain on both supply and demand fronts, with lingering liquidity pressures on some real estate companies and cautious income expectations among residents [6][8] Strategic Transformation for Real Estate Companies - Real estate companies must adopt a strategic transformation to navigate the current cycle, emphasizing a shift from high-leverage development to high-efficiency operations [9][10] - Companies are encouraged to refine their business models, focusing on becoming stable suppliers in the affordable housing sector or premium developers in the market [9][10] - Emphasizing product and service value is crucial, with a focus on green, healthy, and smart housing solutions to enhance brand loyalty and customer engagement [9][14] REITs and Financing Models - The acceleration of REITs issuance is providing diversified financing channels, reducing reliance on traditional bank credit and promoting asset securitization [10][12] - REITs have enhanced investor participation and market stability, contributing to the overall confidence in the real estate sector [13][14] - The shift towards REITs is facilitating the recycling of existing assets and improving asset turnover efficiency, creating a positive feedback loop for investment [12][13]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250916
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:18
Key Points Summary Hot News - China's real estate market is moving towards stabilization with narrowing year-on-year declines in commercial housing sales and residential prices, but more efforts are needed [2] - Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [2] - China opposes the US's intention to impose "secondary tariffs" on China over the purchase of Russian oil, threatening to take necessary measures to safeguard its interests [2] - The US has opened a "window" to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives under Section 232 [2] - China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain, and had candid, in - depth, and constructive communication on economic and trade issues such as TikTok [3] Key Commodities - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, LPG, rapeseed meal, and Shanghai gold [4] Plate Performance - In terms of plate price changes, the non - metallic building materials plate rose 2.66% [6] - Regarding plate capital ratios, precious metals accounted for 30.14%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 21.15%, coal - coking - steel - ore at 14.41%, etc [7] Asset Performance - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% daily, rose 0.07% monthly, and 15.18% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.22% daily, 5.46% monthly, and 31.84% annually [8] - In the fixed - income market, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12% daily, 0.00% monthly, and fell 1.03% annually [9] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index rose 1.24% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 2.95% annually; London spot gold rose 1.00% daily, 6.73% monthly, and 40.19% annually [9] - Other assets: the US dollar index fell 0.27% daily, 0.50% monthly, and 10.25% annually; the CBOE volatility remained unchanged daily, fell 3.91% monthly, and 14.93% annually [9]