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城楼网|四季度房地产政策有望加力 市场延续分化复苏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 14:19
9月30日,中指研究院最新发布《2025年三季度中国房地产市场总结与趋势展望》。 编审:莫 非 监制:张立果 出品:城楼网/城楼财经 (4)政策展望:随着三季度经济运行压力有所加大,四季度宏观政策加力必要性有所提升,而9月美联储开启降 息周期也为国内货币政策释放了更多空间。为实现全年5%左右的经济增长目标,并推动"十四五"圆满收官,预计 四季度宏观政策将进一步加力。8月国务院会议重申"采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势",释放积极信 号。预计四季度房地产政策将继续聚焦"止跌回稳"目标,推动已出台各项政策加快落实,同时增量政策也存在一 定预期。此外,10月下旬召开的二十届四中全会,将研究关于制定"十五五"规划的建议,有望为房地产未来五年 发展指明方向。 (5)市场展望:考虑到上半年多家头部房企在核心城市获取了较多优质地块,这些地块有望在四季度逐步入市, 新增供应增加有望对核心城市新房销售形成一定支撑,"好城市+好房子"仍具市场机会;而近两年新项目供应偏少 的城市,则仍将以去库存为主,市场分化趋势或将延续。二手房方面,重点城市挂牌量维持高位,预计四季度交 易活跃度将温和回升,但"以价换量"态势短期难改。供给端 ...
范为:房地产“止跌回稳”是渐进式复苏
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-09-30 11:02
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is at a critical juncture of deep adjustment and policy easing, indicating a gradual soft landing rather than a rapid reversal [1][2][3] Policy Signals and Market Response - Recent policy adjustments, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in multiple cities, signal a strong commitment to stabilize the real estate market [1][4] - The current phase is characterized by a transition from "policy bottom" to "market bottom," with a solid foundation being built for market recovery through ongoing policy support [3][4] - Core cities are showing early signs of stabilization in transaction volumes, while lower-tier cities are still in the process of bottoming out, reflecting a gradient recovery [3][4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The policy focus is on demand-side recovery, aiming to stimulate reasonable housing demand and improve market expectations [2][5] - The current policy measures are designed to activate demand, optimize inventory, and guide expectations, thereby providing strong support for price stabilization [5][6] - Challenges remain on both supply and demand fronts, with lingering liquidity pressures on some real estate companies and cautious income expectations among residents [6][8] Strategic Transformation for Real Estate Companies - Real estate companies must adopt a strategic transformation to navigate the current cycle, emphasizing a shift from high-leverage development to high-efficiency operations [9][10] - Companies are encouraged to refine their business models, focusing on becoming stable suppliers in the affordable housing sector or premium developers in the market [9][10] - Emphasizing product and service value is crucial, with a focus on green, healthy, and smart housing solutions to enhance brand loyalty and customer engagement [9][14] REITs and Financing Models - The acceleration of REITs issuance is providing diversified financing channels, reducing reliance on traditional bank credit and promoting asset securitization [10][12] - REITs have enhanced investor participation and market stability, contributing to the overall confidence in the real estate sector [13][14] - The shift towards REITs is facilitating the recycling of existing assets and improving asset turnover efficiency, creating a positive feedback loop for investment [12][13]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250916
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:18
Key Points Summary Hot News - China's real estate market is moving towards stabilization with narrowing year-on-year declines in commercial housing sales and residential prices, but more efforts are needed [2] - Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [2] - China opposes the US's intention to impose "secondary tariffs" on China over the purchase of Russian oil, threatening to take necessary measures to safeguard its interests [2] - The US has opened a "window" to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives under Section 232 [2] - China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain, and had candid, in - depth, and constructive communication on economic and trade issues such as TikTok [3] Key Commodities - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, LPG, rapeseed meal, and Shanghai gold [4] Plate Performance - In terms of plate price changes, the non - metallic building materials plate rose 2.66% [6] - Regarding plate capital ratios, precious metals accounted for 30.14%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 21.15%, coal - coking - steel - ore at 14.41%, etc [7] Asset Performance - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% daily, rose 0.07% monthly, and 15.18% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.22% daily, 5.46% monthly, and 31.84% annually [8] - In the fixed - income market, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12% daily, 0.00% monthly, and fell 1.03% annually [9] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index rose 1.24% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 2.95% annually; London spot gold rose 1.00% daily, 6.73% monthly, and 40.19% annually [9] - Other assets: the US dollar index fell 0.27% daily, 0.50% monthly, and 10.25% annually; the CBOE volatility remained unchanged daily, fell 3.91% monthly, and 14.93% annually [9]
8月70城房价同比降幅总体收窄
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-15 14:19
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a differentiated adjustment, with a continued decline in housing prices but signs of recovery in market confidence due to favorable policies [1][5]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In August, the sales prices of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing [1]. - Shanghai's new housing prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year, leading the 70 cities [2]. - The average transaction price of new residential properties in Shanghai reached 82,653 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 2.38% and a year-on-year increase of 5.37% [2]. Group 2: Market Activity and Supply - The introduction of the "8.25 New Policy" has led to increased activity on both the supply and demand sides in Shanghai's real estate market [3]. - In the week of August 25-31, 14 projects were launched, accounting for 68% of the total new housing supply for August [3]. - The number of "sunshine listings" has increased, indicating a shift in buyer sentiment and a reduction in the wait-and-see attitude [3]. Group 3: Second-Hand Housing Market - In August, the second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, while second and third-tier cities saw declines of 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively [4]. - The number of second-hand housing listings nationwide increased by 9.69% year-on-year, reaching 2.5464 million units [4]. - Only one city, Changchun, saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, rising by 0.1% [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Conditions - From January to August, national real estate development investment totaled 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [5]. - The sales area of new residential properties decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3% [6]. - The market is expected to enter a traditional peak season, with real estate companies likely to accelerate project launches in core cities [6].
8月70城房价出炉,新房上涨城市增加
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China shows signs of stabilization with a narrowing decline in sales and an increase in new home prices in several cities, indicating potential recovery in the sector [1][18][24]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first eight months of 2023, the total sales area of new commercial housing reached 573.04 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, but this decline is 13.3 percentage points narrower than the same period last year [18]. - The sales revenue from new commercial housing was 550.15 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 16.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [18]. - As of the end of August, the inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased for six consecutive months, with a total of 76.169 million square meters, down 3.17 million square meters from July [21]. Group 2: Price Trends - In August, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, new home prices increased month-on-month in nine cities, including Shanghai and Hangzhou, with the number of cities experiencing price increases rising by three compared to July [1][17]. - The year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities was 0.9%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [8][17]. - The year-on-year decline in second and third-tier cities was 2.4% and 3.7%, respectively, with declines narrowing by 0.4 percentage points [8][16]. Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The government has implemented various policies to stabilize the real estate market, including adjustments to housing policies and financial incentives, which have shown some positive effects [24][25]. - Analysts suggest that the market is transitioning from a phase of rapid decline to one of stabilization, with expectations for improved market conditions in the coming months [22][26]. - The upcoming "Golden September" marketing season is anticipated to boost market activity, particularly in core cities, as developers increase their sales efforts [26].
国家统计局公布2025年1-8月全国房地产开发投资及销售数据:融资环境延续宽松,去库存成效持续显现
Ping An Securities· 2025-09-15 09:07
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Viewpoints - The financing environment remains loose, and the effects of destocking are becoming increasingly evident, with a continued trend towards stabilization in the real estate market [1][4]. - The report highlights that the sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continued policy support and the need for further interest rate cuts to enhance rental yield attractiveness and accelerate land acquisition [6][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In August, the sales amount of commercial housing was 544.9 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to July [6]. - The total area of unsold commercial housing at the end of August was 760 million square meters, marking a continuous reduction for six months, indicating effective destocking [6]. Financial Trends - Real estate investment in August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with new construction down 20.6% and completion down 21.4% [6]. - Domestic loans showed a positive growth of 1.1% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in the financing environment for the industry [6][5]. Company Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product quality, specifically mentioning companies like Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others as potential investment opportunities [5].
8月新房上涨城市增加,商品房库存连续6个月减少
21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道 前8月房地产市场呈现市场销售降幅收窄,新房价格环比上涨城市增加、同比降幅收窄等积 极信号。 9月15日,国家统计局公布前8月房地产数据。1-8月,全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降4.7%,降幅比去年同期收窄13.3个百分 点,比去年全年收窄8.2个百分点。商品房销售额下降7.3%,降幅比去年同期收窄16.3个百分点,比去年全年收窄9.8个百分点。 在房价方面,8月70个大中城市中,上海、杭州、沈阳、合肥、南宁、西宁、乌鲁木齐、吉林、宜昌这9个城市新房价格环比上 涨,上涨城市数量较7月增加3个。同时,70城中多数城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅有所收窄。 9月15日,国新办召开新闻发布会,国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在会上表示,受国内外 形势变化影响,前8个月房地产市场虽有所波动,但商品房销售和住宅价格同比降幅在收窄,去库存成效继续显现,房地产市场 仍朝着止跌回稳方向迈进。 商品房待售面积连续6个月减少 比如在新房市场,8月一线城市新房价格环比下降0.1%,降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点,其中,上海上涨0.4%,北京、广州和深 圳分别下降0.4%、0. ...
申万宏源:8月房企销售降幅收窄 优质企业逆势增长
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 07:51
Core Viewpoint - The sales decline of real estate companies has narrowed, with August showing a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a cumulative decrease of 18%, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][2]. Sales Performance - In August 2025, the sales amount for 50 real estate companies was 170.8 billion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year, while the sales area was 9.47 million square meters, down 14.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the sales amount reached 1557.8 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year, with a sales area of 80.5 million square meters, down 24.3% year-on-year [2][4]. Policy Environment - The State Council has emphasized the need for stronger measures to stabilize the market, with recent policies in Beijing and Shanghai aimed at relaxing purchase restrictions [2][5]. - The market shows a structural differentiation, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities, leading to a forecast of a "structurally strong + overall weak" real estate market [1][2]. Company Rankings - In August, the top three companies by sales were 招蛇 (Zhaosheng) with 19.5 billion yuan (up 39% year-on-year), 中海 (China Overseas) with 18.3 billion yuan (down 1%), and 保利 (Poly) with 18 billion yuan (down 19%) [3]. - Cumulatively, the top three companies from January to August were 保利 (Poly) with 181.2 billion yuan (down 18%), 中海 (China Overseas) with 150.3 billion yuan (down 17%), and 华润 (China Resources) with 136.8 billion yuan (down 12%) [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a "positive" outlook on the real estate sector, suggesting that quality companies in core cities will perform well despite overall market challenges [5][6]. - Recommended companies include 建发国际 (Jianfa International), 滨江集团 (Binjiang Group), and 华润置地 (China Resources Land) for their product strength, as well as companies like 新城控股 (New Town Holdings) and 越秀地产 (Yuexiu Property) for their undervalued recovery potential [5][6].
825上海楼市新政点评:京沪接连放松限购政策,止跌回稳仍是核心目标
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing and Shanghai signal a shift away from pessimistic expectations in the real estate market, with a focus on stabilizing prices and promoting recovery [5]. - The Shanghai policy changes are more significant than those in Beijing, aimed at improving the housing market structure and facilitating the housing replacement chain [5]. - The report anticipates further policy relaxations in other cities like Shenzhen, following the trend set by Beijing and Shanghai [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - On August 25, 2025, Shanghai announced the relaxation of housing purchase limits, allowing families to buy unlimited properties outside the outer ring, and increasing the maximum housing provident fund loan amount to 2.16 million yuan from 1.92 million yuan [5][6]. - The new policies also include a reduction in commercial loan interest rates for second homes and the removal of the interest rate floor [5][6]. Market Analysis - The report notes a "dumbbell" structure in the Shanghai housing market, with improving prices for new homes and a rebound in second-hand homes priced below 3 million yuan [5]. - It predicts that the core cities' real estate markets are at a bottoming point and will lead the recovery [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong product capabilities such as China Resources Land, Longfor Group, and China Jinmao, as well as undervalued firms like New Town Holdings and China Overseas Development [5][7]. - It also highlights opportunities in the second-hand housing brokerage sector and property management companies [5][8].
全面失守!楼市危险信号已经很明显了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 10:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the repeated mention of the real estate market needing to "stop falling and stabilize" indicates that the decline has not yet ceased and stability has not been achieved [1][2] - The term "stop falling and stabilize" is not a reality but rather a goal, highlighting the ongoing challenges in the market [2][4] - The overall situation of the housing market is grim, with significant declines in housing prices across major cities [4][6] Group 2 - Data shows that in July, second-hand housing prices fell across all major cities, with Beijing leading the decline at 1.1% [4][5] - New housing sales have also seen a substantial drop, with a 4.0% decrease in sales area and a 6.5% decrease in sales amount year-on-year for the first seven months [6][7] - The new construction area in July was 4,842 million square meters, down 32.6% month-on-month, indicating a lack of confidence from developers [8] Group 3 - The transaction volume for second-hand homes in Beijing dropped by 15.6% month-on-month in July, with a total of 12,784 units sold [15] - New home transactions also fell significantly, with a 27.6% decrease month-on-month in July [16] - The overall market is characterized by a high number of listings, with total listings exceeding 162,700 units, indicating a shift to a buyer's market [17] Group 4 - In response to the declining market, Beijing introduced new policies aimed at stimulating demand and stabilizing the market [18][20] - Other cities, including Shanghai, are expected to follow suit with their own measures, although many have already relaxed restrictions [21][22] - The emphasis on "stop falling and stabilize" signals a potential new round of policies aimed at market stabilization [25][26]