行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 京沪接连放松限购政策，止跌回稳 仍是核心目标 看好 ——825 上海楼市新政点评 事件： ⚫ 2025 年 8 月 25 日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务 局、人民银行上海市分行、市公积金管理中心等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房 地产政策措施的通知》，包括调减住房限购、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完 善个人住房房产税等政策。该《通知》自 2025 年 8 月 26 日起施行。 顾铮 (8621)23297818× guzheng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 点评： 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 - ⚫ 8 月京沪连续放松限购政策，打破行业政策悲观预期，预示后续进一步放松可能。8 月 8 月， ...

（原标题：多地调整公积金政策 楼市各项配套政策有望加速落地） 而在深圳，记者也对多位购房者进行了采访，在目前房价有所下跌的背景下，受访者均表示会优先考虑 公积金和商业的"组合贷"，希望公积金的贷款额度能进一步提高。 近段时间以来，多地继续调整住房公积金有关政策。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉表示，公积金属地属性很强，地方自主权很高，加上低利率 的特点，满足本地刚需改善的特征明显。楼市的需求主体是刚需刚改群体，他们对房价、成本比较敏 感。他预计，各地正在储备新的政策，包括继续调整公积金使用范围，对于城市更新、房地产新模式也 将有更大力度的政策，这是房地产止跌回稳的长效举措。 8月15日，海南省住房和城乡建设厅等部门发布关于进一步优化调整有关调控政策的通知，其中提出结 合本地区实际需求，稳妥有序推进收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、城中村和危旧房改造安置房。继续 利用住房公积金增值收益收购适量存量商品住房房源用作公共租赁住房。 近日，苏州发布《关于进一步扩大住房公积金使用范围的通知》，自9月1日起正式施行。新政策支持提 取住房公积金支付物业费，缴存人本人及配偶支付自住住房物业管理费可申请提取住房公积金，一年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][30]. Core Insights - The real estate market is currently experiencing a trend of destocking, with new housing market conditions still under pressure. The central government's recent statements indicate a shift towards more robust measures to stabilize the market [4][30]. - The report highlights the importance of product strength and inventory management capabilities in identifying quality real estate companies for investment [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New housing transaction volume in 34 key cities increased by 19.9% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 24.5% increase, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 24.7% decrease [5][8]. - In July, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 687.5 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6% [8][9]. - The inventory of residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with a corresponding average monthly de-stocking period of 20 months [21][22]. 2. Industry Policies and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3% for one year and 3.5% for five years in July [30][31]. - Various local governments have introduced policies to stimulate the housing market, including the cancellation of housing sales restrictions and adjustments to housing provident fund loan rules [30][31]. - The report notes that the fiscal revenue from property taxes increased by 12% year-on-year, while land appreciation tax revenue decreased by 17.6% [30][31]. 3. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing activities, with notable issuances including China Merchants Shekou's bond issuance of 800 million yuan at a 1.70% interest rate [36][37]. - The report mentions that Beike-W repurchased approximately 2.49 million shares for about 16 million USD during the week [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued downward trend in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with a significant decrease in new home sales in major cities [4][5]. - The central government emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards more robust policy support [4][32]. - The report suggests that while transaction volumes have stabilized, they have not yet entered a positive cycle, and further supportive measures are anticipated [4][32]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of July 12-18, 2025, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.591 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 20.1% [4][5]. - Year-to-date, new home sales are down 11% compared to the previous year, with first and second-tier cities experiencing a 17.3% year-on-year decline [6][32]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 1.031 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.4% [4][13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand home sales are down 11.4% year-on-year as of July [4][13]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 730,000 square meters of new homes launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.87, indicating ongoing inventory challenges [4][23]. - The average months of inventory for new homes in these cities has increased to 19.8 months [4][23]. Policy and News Tracking - The central government has called for a focus on urban renewal, with various local governments implementing "old-for-new" subsidy policies to stimulate the market [4][32]. - Recent statistics show a 11.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for the first half of 2025 [4][32]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies have reported their half-year performance, with notable declines in sales for major players like China Resources Land and Longfor Group [4][32]. - Companies such as Zhonghua Enterprises and Nanshan Holdings have reported significant profit increases, while others like Vanke and JinDi Group have faced substantial losses [4][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the future policy direction for the real estate sector will focus on achieving the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the market, with a shift in housing policy from quantity to quality and exploring stock opportunities on the supply side to stabilize quality blue-chip companies and maintain the industry's fundamentals [1][2]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The central urban work conference highlighted that urbanization in China is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with urban development shifting from large-scale expansion to improving the quality and efficiency of existing stock [2]. - The meeting outlined seven key tasks for urban work, which align with the top-level design addressing "urban diseases" discussed in the 2015 urban work conference [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, anticipating that the fourth quarter of this year will face high baseline challenges. It is expected that policies will focus on storage and urban renewal in the third quarter to alleviate fundamental pressures and strive to achieve the goal of stabilization [1]. - A significant gap of 236 million square meters exists between sales and completions in 2024, indicating a potential recovery in completions in the second half of the year [1]. Focus Areas - The conference emphasized the need for high-quality urban renewal and the establishment of a new model for real estate development, which includes enhancing quality in new projects and updating existing stock [3]. - The topic of urban village and dilapidated housing renovation was reiterated, with expectations for increased project volume by 2025 and a focus on the pace of issuing policy-supported loans (PSL) [3]. - National land storage plans for the first half of 2025 are projected to reach 475.9 billion yuan, while special bond issuance is only 96.1 billion yuan, indicating a need for accelerated issuance by local governments [3].

Group 1: Price Trends - In the first half of the year, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year, with food prices down 0.9% and energy prices down 3.2%, contributing to a 0.4 percentage point drop in CPI [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the low price levels are characterized by structural and transitional features, influenced by both domestic and international macroeconomic changes [1] - For the second half of the year, prices are expected to recover moderately due to stable economic conditions, expanding total demand, and the effects of holiday seasons on service prices [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market - In the first half of the year, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5%, a reduction that is 15.5 percentage points smaller than the same period last year, while sales revenue fell by 5.5%, narrowing by 19.5 percentage points [2] - The real estate market has seen improvements in transaction volume, leading to effective inventory reduction, with the unsold housing area decreasing by 4.79 million square meters from May to June [3] - The funding situation for real estate companies has improved, with the decline in funds received by developers narrowing by 16.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with policies implemented to promote recovery and prevent further decline [1][2][3] - The sales prices of new residential properties in first, second, and third-tier cities have seen a year-on-year decline, but the rate of decline is narrowing compared to previous months [1][2] - The overall sales area and sales amount of new residential properties have decreased, but the rate of decline has lessened significantly compared to last year [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In June, new residential property prices in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 1.4%, 3.0%, and 4.6% year-on-year, with declines narrowing by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to May [1] - The second-hand housing market also saw price declines, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing drops of 3.0%, 5.8%, and 6.7% year-on-year, again with narrowing declines compared to May [1][2] Group 2: Sales and Investment Trends - Nationally, the sales area of new residential properties decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The total sales amount of residential properties fell by 5.5% year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of 19.5 percentage points compared to last year [2] - Real estate investment dropped by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline rate widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first five months [3] Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to enhance policy measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on increasing support for affordable housing and expediting loan approvals for key projects [3] - Experts predict that the real estate market will see a recovery in the second half of the year, particularly after July, driven by improved policy measures and market conditions [2][3] - The need for tailored policies that match the development stages and market demands of different cities is emphasized to avoid blanket regulations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various measures implemented by local governments leading to a noticeable improvement in market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] - Although there have been fluctuations in housing prices across first, second, and third-tier cities, the overall decline in prices has also lessened [1] - Real estate market funding sources have improved, and the debt resolution efforts of real estate companies are progressing in an orderly manner [1] - Real estate inventory has decreased for four consecutive months, suggesting a tightening supply [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Despite the positive signs, it is important to note that the year-on-year sales area and prices are still declining, indicating that the bottoming out and transformation of the real estate sector is a process [1] - There is a call for greater efforts to promote the stabilization of the real estate market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various measures implemented by local governments leading to a noticeable improvement in market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] - Although there have been fluctuations in housing prices across first, second, and third-tier cities, the overall decline in prices has also lessened [1] - Real estate market funding sources have improved, and the debt resolution efforts of real estate companies are progressing in an orderly manner [1] - Real estate inventory has decreased for four consecutive months, suggesting a tightening supply [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Despite the positive signs, it is important to note that the year-on-year sales area and prices are still declining, indicating that the bottoming out and transformation of the real estate sector is a process [1] - There is a call for greater efforts to promote the stabilization of the real estate market [1]

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The first industry added value was 31.17 billion yuan (3.7% growth), the second industry 239.05 billion yuan (5.3% growth), and the third industry 390.31 billion yuan (5.5% growth) [1] Stability in Economic Performance - The economic performance in the first half of the year showed stability, with GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable, fluctuating between 5.0% and 5.4% throughout the year [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline in several months, with June seeing a return to positive growth at 0.1% [2] - International trade reached new highs, with foreign exchange reserves maintained above 3.2 trillion USD [2] Consumer Market Dynamics - Consumption contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with Q2 growth accelerating to 5.4% [3] - Key trends in consumption included a rise in service sector consumption (5.3% growth), increased holiday spending, and a surge in demand for upgraded products such as sports goods (22.2% growth) and jewelry (11.3% growth) [3] - Green consumption is becoming a trend, with significant growth in electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances [3] - The tourism sector is also seeing a boost, particularly with the expansion of visa-free travel [3] Real Estate Market Recovery - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in new housing sales [4] - New housing sales area decreased by 3.5%, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, while sales value fell by 5.5%, narrowing by 19.5 percentage points [4] - The decline in housing prices is also slowing, with some cities experiencing price increases [4] - Funding for real estate development has improved, with a 16.4 percentage point reduction in funding decline compared to the previous year [5] - The market is in a transitional phase, requiring further efforts to stabilize and recover [5]