文丨肯·费雪 编辑丨林伟萍 编者按： 投资需以常识为基础，而非依赖复杂模型或短期投机，这个观点因被投资大师查理·芒格先生经常挂在嘴边，而被很多国内外的投资者追捧。 但这句话的后面，芒格还加了一句，即投资需理解企业的基本逻辑。他主张通过多元思维模型（如经济学、心理学、生物学等）过滤信息，避免被市场噪音 干扰。 有意思的是，很多投资者只记住了前半句，而忽略了后半句。 在全新修订的第2版《反"常识"投资》中，著名投资者、费雪投资公司联合首席投资官肯·费雪（Ken Fisher）再次以深入浅出的方式，剖析了那些每年让投 资者损失数十亿美元的最常见投资"常识"。 肯·费雪是菲利普·费雪的儿子，菲利普·费雪的核心的投资思想是"以合理价格买入伟大公司"，这备受巴菲特和芒格推崇。 肯·费雪指出，父亲的投资理论"简单到只需两三页纸就能说清楚"，但掌握它们却像"演奏与编曲的区别"。通俗的说法是，"投资的道理都懂，却赚不到 钱"。 他在书中详细解释了散户和专业投资者最常犯的错误，并指导读者如何通过避开这些误区，实现更佳的长期和短期收益。 用他的话说，《反"常识"投资》是一本"揭穿'常识'的操作手册"。 我们经授权摘录本书前言文字， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3700 points, with a potential to break the 3731.69 points high from February 18, 2021, marking a new 10-year high [1] Market Performance - Just over four months ago, on April 7, the index had dropped by 7.34%, with intraday losses exceeding 9%, which was an unexpected "golden opportunity" for investors [1] - In early 2024, the index fell below 2700 points, leading to a state of panic in the market, but after significant buying from the Central Huijin Investment, the market saw a recovery [1] Historical Context - The A-share market has experienced multiple cycles over its 34-year history, with investors often acting contrary to market trends—selling at lows and buying at highs [2] - Historical patterns show that many investors are hesitant at market bottoms and overly aggressive at tops, leading to significant losses [2] Investor Behavior - The market is influenced by human emotions, which can lead to irrational behavior, deviating from rational decision-making [3] - Successful investors often capitalize on market cycles by acting contrary to prevailing sentiments—being greedy when others are fearful and vice versa [3] Recent Trends - Investors who were willing to buy in the past few months have seen returns, highlighting the importance of understanding market cycles and maintaining an optimistic outlook for future gains [4]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that avoiding five common investment mistakes can help individuals outperform 90% of retail investors [4][28] - It highlights the importance of relying on common sense rather than expert opinions, noting that 75% of fund managers fail to beat the market [7][8] - The article suggests that familiar companies are often the best investment opportunities, as they are well-known and trusted by the public [10] Group 2 - It warns against using leverage for investments, citing a case where a leveraged investment led to a massive loss of $20 billion in just two days [12][13][14] - The article advises against chasing popular stocks, as this often leads to significant losses when the market corrects [15][16][18] - It criticizes frequent trading, stating that each transaction benefits brokers more than the investor, and encourages a more patient investment approach [19][21][22] Group 3 - The article argues that attempting to predict market movements is futile, as even the most powerful financial figures have failed to do so [23][25][27] - It concludes that successful investing is about making informed decisions and holding onto quality investments rather than trying to time the market [28][30]