逆向思维，一位智者的逆向人生与永恒投资哲学。 01 一位来自奥马哈的普通青年人 1924 年，查理·芒格出生在美国内布拉斯加州奥马哈市一个普通家庭。17 岁考入密歇根大学读数学，二战爆发后应征入伍，服役期间被派往气象学校，系统学习理 工科思维。战争结束，他靠 GI 法案进入加州理工学院，随后又以无大学文凭之身份破格被哈佛法学院录取，1948 年以优异成绩毕业，成为一名律师。 芒格早年在洛杉矶执业，却深感"用时间换钱"的天花板太低。于是，他在 30 岁出头开始同步涉足地产开发，以 10 万美元本金撬动百万利润，完成原始积累。35 岁那年，一场失败的婚姻与长子白血病的双重打击几乎将他拖入深渊，但他用理性与阅读自我疗愈，并坚定转向投资赛道，成立惠勒·芒格合伙公司，十年年化收 益跑赢道指 18 个百分点，为日后与巴菲特并肩作战奠定基石。 02 查理芒格与巴菲特相遇 1959 年 5 月，35 岁的芒格返回家乡奥马哈料理父亲后事，被共同好友安排与 29 岁的沃伦·巴菲特共进晚餐。两人从股票聊到商业、从阅读到人生，惊觉"灵魂频 率"完全一致，遂成莫逆。巴菲特戏称那晚"找到了失联多年的兄长"，芒格则说"沃伦让我笑到肚子疼" ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the life and investment philosophy of Charlie Munger, emphasizing his journey from a modest background to becoming a prominent investor alongside Warren Buffett [2][3] - Munger's early career included law practice and real estate development, which laid the foundation for his later success in investment [4] - The partnership between Munger and Buffett transformed Berkshire Hathaway from a struggling textile company into a multi-trillion dollar conglomerate, achieving an annualized return of approximately 20% over 45 years [6] Group 2 - Munger's investment philosophy includes the concept of "thinking backward," which focuses on identifying potential failures rather than just successes, leading to a clearer understanding of risks [7] - He emphasizes the importance of knowing one's limitations and only investing in areas where one has expertise, thereby expanding one's circle of competence [7] - Munger advocates for buying great companies at fair prices, as demonstrated by the acquisition of See's Candies, which significantly contributed to Berkshire's cash flow over decades [8] Group 3 - The concept of a "moat" is central to Munger's investment strategy, where he seeks companies with strong competitive advantages that can withstand market pressures over time [9] - Munger employs a multi-disciplinary approach to investing, utilizing various fields of knowledge to avoid narrow thinking and enhance decision-making [10] - He promotes concentrated investing, arguing that good opportunities are rare and should be capitalized on heavily, as evidenced by Berkshire's top holdings consistently representing a large portion of its equity value [11] Group 4 - Munger's lifestyle choices reflect his investment philosophy, emphasizing delayed gratification and disciplined living to maximize long-term benefits [12] - The article concludes with Munger's formula for a remarkable life, which combines backward thinking, a defined circle of competence, a strong moat, and the power of compound interest [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a structured knowledge system to enhance understanding and decision-making in various fields, particularly in investment and industry analysis [8][12][18]. Group 1: Knowledge System Structure - A knowledge system consists of a large number of knowledge points organized in an orderly structure, which helps in identifying patterns and insights [12][18]. - The knowledge pyramid illustrates the hierarchical organization of knowledge, from basic concepts to complex theories [13][15]. Group 2: Steps to Form a Knowledge System - The formation of a knowledge system involves accumulating heuristic knowledge, establishing a knowledge framework, and creating a structured approach to thinking [19][20]. - Key steps include broadening knowledge through diverse sources, deepening understanding by establishing frameworks, and applying structured thinking methods [42][45]. Group 3: Analytical Frameworks - Various analytical frameworks are essential for industry research, including PESTEL analysis, SWOT analysis, and Porter's Five Forces model, which help in understanding external and internal factors affecting industries [57][70][63]. - The industry lifecycle model categorizes industries into stages such as introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, providing insights into market dynamics and investment opportunities [61][62]. Group 4: Practical Applications - The article suggests practical methods for gathering information, such as attending industry conferences, engaging with practitioners, and utilizing reports from financial institutions and consulting firms [46][49]. - It highlights the importance of understanding industry pain points and aligning professional skills to address these challenges effectively [75].

探索市场脉动，洞悉行业趋势。申万宏源研究特别推出系列访谈—— "走近申万宏源研究 人" ，我们将聚焦所内的杰出分析师，深刻探索他们的从业经历、研究见解，向您展现分析师 的多面性，带您走进Ta背后的成长故事。 本期"走近申万宏源研究人"带您了解 机械行业首席分析师—王珂。 王珂，申万宏源研究 机械行业首席分析师、机器人产业链 链长。 厦门大学核科学与工程专业硕 士，在校期间荣获厦门市科技进步二等奖、国家发明专利2项。 具有10年机械行业研究经验，2015-2020年作为核心成员荣获 新财富最佳分析师、金牛奖最佳分析 师 等。 Q&A 对话王珂 01 【专业领域知识】 您如何看待机械行业的研究价值、产业定位？ 装备制造业是典型的中游行业，几乎所有的工业部门都有对应的生产装备，甚至生产机械的机械也 是一个独立行当，也就是我们说的"工业母机"， 因此机械行业是研究各类下游行业乃至景气周期的重要 参考系， 观察机械细分行业的需求变化往往能起到见微知著的中观效果。 同时，作为生产工具， 机械是衡量 生产力发展水平的客观尺度，是划分经济时代的客观依据 ，我 们国家工业经济的每个阶段都有对应的机械品类大发展，并涌现出一批时代 ...