1. 今天回到3.9星后，主动优选组合也回到了正常估值，暂停发车。 月薪宝 （点击查看）还在低估，但距离正常估值很接近。 月薪宝底层股票部分，偏红利低波等价值风格，还有一些在低估，距离正常估值比较近。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，大盘回到3.9星。 这也是2023年以来，大盘首次回到3点几星。 也是咱们估值表日更以来，经历的第4轮3点几星（2015年的1星，2017年底、2021年初）。 2017年底、2021年初的3点几星，都是持续了几个月到大半年时间。 其实在2025年3季度，港股就率先进入到3点几星了。 A股4季度回调了一些，但最近两周连续上涨，非常强势，也回到了3.9星。 大中小盘股都上涨。 今天价值风格也出现上涨，自由现金流周一回到正常估值，周二继续上涨。 成长风格也上涨，其中科创板比较强势，创业板微涨。 港股也整体上涨。 恒生科技等领涨，也回到了正常估值。 其中，指数增强组合可能会先到高估（参考中证800市盈率，大约19倍到高估）。 出现类似机会，也会有止盈发车。 另外之前定投的单个指数基金，也陆续有一些接近高估。例如中证1000等。 如果再涨涨也会回到正 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微涨，截止到收盘，还在4.1星。 大中小盘股都上涨，波动不大。 现金流等价值风格整体上涨，今天上涨后，现金流指数距离正常估值也很近了。 成长风格也整体上涨。 港股今天比较强势，比A股涨的略多一些。 港股科技股领涨。 马上就是元旦假期了。 明天周三，也是2025年最后一个交易日了。 A股周三正常交易，但港股通周三就暂停了。 部分含有港股的基金，周三也暂停申购赎回交易。 周四到周五是元旦假期，A股港股也放假。 下周假期回来后，恢复正常交易。 1. [大吉大利，今天吃基] 第396期的螺丝钉 定投 实盘来啦。 时间： 2025年12月30日 方案： 定投买入 品种： ▶指数增强投顾组合： 回到正常估值，暂停定投，继续持有。后面回到低估后继续。 ▶主动优选投顾组合： 9456元， 点这里跟车买入 ▶月薪宝投顾组合： 10000元， 点这里跟车买入 开启后，当主动优选、指数增强组合发车止盈时，会自动转换到365天等稳健类组合，避免错过止盈机会。 想了解功能详情可以查看：《 自动止盈功能来啦，一键开启，不错过止盈机会 》。 想要开启功能的朋友，可以长按识别二维码，添加课 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced slight fluctuations, closing at a rating of 4.2 stars [1] - A market correction of a certain percentage occurred between October and November, followed by a rebound that recovered most of the previous losses [2] - Large-cap stocks saw a slight increase, while small-cap stocks experienced a minor decline [3] - Both value and growth styles showed upward movement [4] - A-shares reflecting dividend and value styles, as well as the ChiNext reflecting growth styles, experienced slight gains [5] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher but closed lower by the end of the trading day [6] - Dividend indices in the Hong Kong market rose, while technology stocks faced declines [7] Investment Strategies - The investment strategy includes a regular investment plan with a focus on suitable investment products based on market valuation [10] - The strategy allows for pausing regular investments when products reach normal valuation and holding them until they become undervalued again [10] - An automatic stop-loss feature has been introduced for certain investment combinations, which will automatically switch to stable products after reaching profit targets [14] Pension Fund Investment - The current investment plan for personal pension funds includes regular investments in specific funds, such as the CSI A50 and the 300 Dividend Low Volatility fund [16][17] - The pension index fund is a new product introduced in personal pension accounts, with a maximum annual investment limit of 12,000 yuan [17] - The investment strategy combines growth and value styles, with notable performance from both categories this year [17] Valuation Metrics - A detailed valuation table for various indices is provided, including metrics such as price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, dividend yield, and return on equity [21] - The table categorizes indices into undervalued (green), normal (yellow), and overvalued (red) based on their current valuation status [24]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） \ / 十九 班 功 次 六 级-5星级便宜阶段来投入，到了3星级及 以上阶段，则是可以定投债券资产。 那么,上班族每个月要拿出多少钱来定 投呢?有调研报告显示,对一般投资者 来说,新增收入的20%用来定投,是比 较正常的比例。 如果想更加省心省力地做好资产配置, 可以考虑螺丝钉的投顾组合。 螺丝钉投顾组合， •有以股票资产为主的，如主动优选投顾 组合、指数增强投顾组合、月薪宝投顾 组员; 如果是一笔3-5年以上长期不用的闲钱, 就可以趁市场便宜的阶段，来做好分散 配置。 通常来说，在做资产配置的时候，可以 根据「100-年龄」，来分配资产。 ·配置「100-年龄」%的比例，到股票资 产里; ·配置「年龄」%的比例，到债券资产。 其中,股票资产部分，可以在市场4星 级-5星级阶段，配置好。5星级的时候， 投入资金最多;随着市场反弹,投资金 额可以适当减少一些。 (2) 增量资金:用定投的方式积攒资产 如果是每月工资、年终奖等新增收入, 可以将其中长期不用的部分，用「定 投」的方式来打理。 不同的投顾组合相互搭配，可以比较好 地满足我们家庭资产配置的需求。 ▼点击阅读原 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 安用吖饿, 机个迫百仅贝胶示页厂」。 从进入4星级，股票资产仍然可能出现 30%-40%级别的下跌。 (2) 第二步:确定股债配置比例 如果之后市场上涨，那股票资产这部分 仍然会带来不错回报;如果之后市场下 跌，再遇到5点几星，也有子弹加仓。 「100-年龄」是全球养老金投资中常用 的目标生命周期策略。 原理是年龄越大抗风险能力越弱，配置 风险资产的比例也可以适当降低,但通 常最低也会保持30%以上的股票比例。 /^\ 位一止。 叶小工人机 尔伯尔卡 (3) 勇二灭,屯掉道宣反贫的负广 股票资产中,在4点几星通常还有一些低 估的品种，例如指数基金中的部分价值 风格指数。 截至2025年12月，市场在4.2星上下， 主动优选投顾组合还可以投资,但金额 相比5星级时大幅减少。 此外,也可以考虑一些「固收+」类的品 种,比如月薪宝和360天投顾组合。 对这些组合感兴趣的朋友，在公众号底 部对话框回复「 投顾组合」，即可查看 组合详细介绍~ 4点几星,长期不用的资金,配置股票基 金的比例，最好不超过「100-年龄」的 比例。例如40岁，那大约是60%的股票 资产,40%的债券类 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体下跌，截止到收盘，回到4.3星。 大中小盘股都下跌，中小盘股下跌略多。 价值风格波动相对小一些，银行、红利等指数略微下跌。 成长风格波动比较大，创业板、科创板下跌超2%。 港股特点跟A股类似。 港股红利类品种波动相对小一些，港股科技等成长风格下跌较多。 最近港股回调后，港股科技等指数也刚回到低估。 临近年底，市场担心美元降息节奏放缓，叠加日元加息，市场流动性收紧。 亚太地区股票市场，以及长期纯债等资产都出现了波动。 A股大盘点数又接近11月时的位置了。 从10月份年内高点，到今天收盘，中证全指回调了大约5.1%。 在牛市里，市场上涨也不是一帆风顺的，中间也经常会有波动。 最近1年多，A股有三次回调超过10%，分别在去年10月、今年1月和今年4月。 并且牛市里，上涨与上涨之间，也经常间隔数月。 例如24年9月份，A股大幅上涨，下一轮大幅上涨，就到25年三季度了。 试想下，如果要等到26年三季度再迎来下一波上涨，有多少人能坚持呢？ 要有足够的耐心，才能等到市场下一轮上涨的到来。 投资，是一个资产从没有耐心者，向有耐心者转移的游戏。 1. [大吉大利，今天吃基] ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大中小盘股下跌，中小盘股下跌稍多。 价值风格整体下跌； 成长风格中，创业板指略微上涨。 市场还是风格轮动的。 10-11月，成长风格下跌超15%，价值风格下跌约5%上下。 到了12月，成长风格这几天比较强势，价值风格低迷。 风水轮流转。 港股今天也下跌。 波动比A股还大一些。 今天下跌后，港股科技、恒生科技也重新回到低估。 今天大盘整体下跌，截止到收盘，还在4.2星。 目前处在刚进入低估的位置。 1. [大吉大利，今天吃基] 第393期的螺丝钉定投实盘来啦。 时间：2025年12月9日 方案：定投买入 品种： 指数增强投顾组合： 回到正常估值，暂停定投，继续持有。后面回到低估后继续。 主动优选投顾组合：9553元 月薪宝投顾组合：10000元 最近市场上涨，本周发车金额有所降低 。 本周： · 指数增强组合回到正常估值，暂停定投，继续持有。后面回到低估后继续。 · 主动优选组合正常定投。不过主动优选距离正常估值也不远。 · 增加月薪宝组合投资，月薪宝底层是40%的股票+60%的债券。 月薪宝本身自带「低买高卖」的股债再平衡策略，自带止盈。本身波动风险小，比较稳健的参与市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting a general decline in the A-share market while the Hong Kong market remains relatively stable. It emphasizes the importance of investment strategies in the current market conditions, particularly focusing on value and growth styles. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - After several days of increase, the A-share market experienced an overall decline, with the drop narrowing by the close, maintaining a rating of 4.2 stars [1] - Large, medium, and small-cap stocks all saw declines, with small-cap stocks experiencing a slightly larger drop [2] - Value styles, such as dividend stocks, showed slight increases, while growth styles declined more significantly [3] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed relative strength, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a slight increase [4] - Dividend-related indices in the Hong Kong market performed strongly today [5] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility Index and other similar indices saw significant increases, approaching normal valuation levels [6] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article outlines investment strategies for various portfolios, suggesting a pause in regular investments for the index-enhanced portfolio as it returns to normal valuation, while continuing regular investments in the actively selected portfolio [11] - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation due to its built-in rebalancing strategy [11] - The article emphasizes the importance of patience in investment, noting that opportunities for low valuations are less frequent than in previous years, but long-term investment remains promising [31][33]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and gold have been observed, indicating a liquidity crisis that is relatively rare when all asset classes decline simultaneously [4][7][18] - The liquidity crisis is primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the potential for a rate cut in December [8][9][14] - The U.S. national debt has reached $38.33 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed $870 billion in 2024, raising concerns about the dollar's stability and the high yield on 10-year Treasury bonds [11][12] Group 2 - The uncertainty regarding the timing of future rate cuts may lead to prolonged periods of market volatility, with potential intervals of several months between cuts [13][14] - Historically, liquidity crises occur every 3-5 years, with notable instances during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and significant rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [17][21] - During periods of liquidity tightness, investors tend to sell long-term risk assets, leading to increased correlation among different asset classes [18][22] Group 3 - To navigate the current market volatility, investors should assess their holdings for undervalued assets and ensure that the underlying companies are still profitable [24][25] - Short-term fluctuations may present opportunities to invest in undervalued assets, as seen during previous market downturns [27][29] - Suitable investment options currently include undervalued index funds, actively managed portfolios, and fixed-income plus products that incorporate a small amount of equities [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in stocks, bonds, and gold, attributing it to a liquidity crisis and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. It emphasizes the need for investors to adapt to these market conditions and identifies potential investment opportunities amidst the fluctuations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Volatility - Recent fluctuations have been observed across global stock markets, with notable declines in gold and bonds as well [3][4]. - The simultaneous volatility in stocks, bonds, and gold is typically indicative of a liquidity crisis, a situation that is relatively rare [4][5]. - The current liquidity crunch is primarily driven by uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, particularly the potential for a rate cut in December [7][14]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a phase of interest rate cuts, with the U.S. national debt projected to reach $38.33 trillion by November 2025 [8]. - Interest payments on federal debt are anticipated to exceed $870 billion in 2024, surpassing military spending for the first time, and are expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2025 [9][10]. - The timing of interest rate cuts remains uncertain, with potential gaps of several months to over half a year between cuts [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In response to market volatility, investors are advised to assess their holdings for undervalued assets and ensure that the underlying companies are still profitable [26]. - Short-term fluctuations may present opportunities to acquire undervalued assets, as seen during previous market downturns [28]. - Suitable investment options include undervalued index funds, actively managed portfolios, and "fixed income plus" products that incorporate a small amount of equities [32][34].