目前来看，美国经济增速放缓已成定局，各项经济指标相较于前两年将呈现参差不齐的表现，整体呈现 收缩趋势。 在美国特朗普政府关税政策带来持续不确定性的背景下，美国经济怎么样了？ 根据美国劳工统计局7月15日公布的最新数据，6月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，为今年2月 以来的最高水平。消费端也显现疲软迹象，实际个人消费支出出现下滑，住房市场数据也表现低迷。然 而，就业市场仍然维持稳健，6月失业率小幅下降。 主要国际机构已纷纷下调美国经济增长预期。经合组织（OECD）6月将2025年美国国内生产总值 （GDP）增速预测从2.2%下调至1.6%，2026年进一步调降至1.5%；国际货币基金组织（IMF）4月已将 2025年增长预期下调0.9个百分点至1.8%。 针对当前复杂的经济形势，第一财经专访了上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授、美联储前高级经济学 家胡捷。他表示，市场普遍预期今年美国经济增速将回落至1.4%左右，这主要源于财政刺激效应消退 后，持续三年的高利率政策开始显现效果。"目前来看，美国经济增速放缓已成定局，各项经济指标相 较于前两年将呈现参差不齐的表现，整体呈现收缩趋势。"他称。 就关税政策对通 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-07-16 一、指数走势 07 月 15 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.42%，收于 3505.0 点，成交额 6468.52 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.56%，收于 10744.56 点，成交额 9651.96 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.3%，成交额 3473.78 亿元，其中开盘价 6452.0，收盘价 6442.83，当日最高价 6472.53，最低价 6381.56； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.03%，成交额 2460.77 亿元，其中开盘价 6018.63，收盘价 6018.76，当日最高价 6049.79，最低价 5973.8； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.03%，成交额 3535.25 亿元，其中开盘价 4023.99，收盘价 4019.06，当日最高价 4042.66，最低价 3994.26； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.38%，成交额 798.06 亿元，其中开盘价 2758.72，收盘价 2747.23，当日最高价 2765.5，最低价 2731.32。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-07-15 一、指数走势 07 月 14 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.27%，收于 3519.65 点，成交额 6231.02 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.11%，收于 10684.52 点，成交额 8356.36 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.02%，成交额 3026.37 亿元，其中开盘价 6465.51，收盘价 6462.31，当日最高价 6474.93，最低价 6443.56； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.1%，成交额 2262.91 亿元，其中开盘价 6033.18，收盘价 6020.86，当日最高价 6042.89，最低价 6011.69； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.07%，成交额 3214.16 亿元，其中开盘价 4021.21，收盘价 4017.67，当日最高价 4034.92，最低价 4017.67； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.04%，成交额 900.39 亿元，其中开盘价 2761.48，收盘价 2757.81，当日最高价 2774.23，最低价 2757.81。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant short-term peak, indicated by a long upper shadow on the candlestick chart and high trading volume, suggesting a potential reversal [1] - The upward movement was primarily driven by bank stocks, which also contributed to the market's decline [1] - The market is expected to undergo a small correction, with the possibility of maintaining a strong upward trend in the medium term [2] Group 2 - The adjustment phase is anticipated to occur after reaching a high of 3555, with the potential for strong support around the yellow central zone [2] - If the index breaks below 3490, there is further support from the red central zone, indicating that there is no need for immediate concern [2] - The overall outlook remains positive for the index, with short-term corrections expected but a medium-term upward direction still in place [2]

1. Index Trends - On July 10th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48% to close at 3509.68 points, with a trading volume of 613.161 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.47% to close at 10631.13 points, with a trading volume of 880.987 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.25%, with a trading volume of 296.726 billion yuan, an opening price of 6385.21, a closing price of 6406.57, a daily high of 6427.74, and a daily low of 6367.66 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 0.5%, with a trading volume of 207.637 billion yuan, an opening price of 5950.97, a closing price of 5983.05, a daily high of 6000.69, and a daily low of 5942.29 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.62%, with a trading volume of 98.729 billion yuan, an opening price of 2739.23, a closing price of 2756.93, a daily high of 2777.42, and a daily low of 2739.23 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 16.1 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Medicine and Biology, Non - ferrous Metals, and Real Estate significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like Machinery and Equipment, and Computer pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 29.56 points from the previous closing price. Non - Banking Finance, Non - ferrous Metals, and Medicine and Biology sectors significantly pulled the index up, while the Electronics sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 18.62 points from the previous closing price. Banking, Non - Banking Finance, and Power Equipment sectors significantly pulled the index up [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 17.01 points from the previous closing price. Banking and Non - Banking Finance sectors significantly pulled the index up [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 27.43, IM01 had - 99.5, IM02 had - 173.59, and IM03 had - 358.9 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 19.8, IC01 had - 75.93, IC02 had - 127.74, and IC03 had - 250.87 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 14.28, IF01 had - 30.93, IF02 had - 39.68, and IF03 had - 72.69 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 13.74, IH01 had - 18.62, IH02 had - 19.15, and IH03 had - 19.03 [14]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, including values such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc. [24]. - For IC contracts, similar data on roll - over point differences and annualized costs at different time points are presented, like IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, etc. [26]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and annualized costs at various time points are given, such as IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, etc. [26]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and annualized costs at different time points are shown, including IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, etc. [28].

周四，沪深A股主要的大盘指数涨跌互现，上证50指数、上证指数表现比较强，科创50指数跌幅明显。盘面上看，个股上涨家数略多于下跌家数，银行股 大涨，人气并不高。银行股狂欢，A股站上3500点，强到不调整了？ 一、大盘指数分析 中午，重点分析了上证50指数和创业指数，接下来重点分析上证指数和科创50指数。 先分析上证指数。 上证指数，午后两点一波拉升，估计很多散户朋友沸腾了，最终又跳水一波，今天涨幅明显，但谈不上大。最近几个交易日，个人认为大盘指数需要调 整，再拉升。但是，大盘指数只是略微震荡，就再度拉起。这种走势，除了让人感觉赚钱效应极差之外，就是让人感觉到费解。今天，我来谈谈个人看 法。 再来看科创50指数。 科创50指数，今天低开，午后冲高回落，日K线上影线比较长，走出了比较明显的企稳信号。所以，周五科创50指数企稳回升是大概率事件。 但是，从六十分钟级别的走势来看，在今天早盘第二个小时的时候，有效的调整周期到了5，是变盘节点，才导致了今天午后两个小时的反弹。也正是因 为反弹级别比较小，所以冲击了十单位均线后回落，最终收在五单位均线下方。按照这个思路考虑的话，明天多少时间，科创50指数还是调整为主，午后 尤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently testing the 3500-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index, with the potential for a breakout depending on the conditions met for a sustained upward trend [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a 0.7% gain, approaching the 3500-point mark again [1] - After a previous high and subsequent pullback, the market has shown resilience, maintaining a small upward trend above the 5-day moving average [1] Conditions for Breakout - A successful breakout above 3500 points requires not just a brief surge but an accelerated rally followed by a confirmation pullback [1] - If the index fails to show an accelerated trend and instead retraces below the 5-day line, it may indicate a return to previous trading ranges, leading to potential minor corrections or fluctuations [1] Comparison with Other Indices - The Shenzhen Component Index has shown different behavior, having previously dipped below the 5-day line but rebounding strongly, indicating a need for confirmation of its upward movement [1] - The Shenzhen index is currently in a central trading range and requires a pullback confirmation to validate its upward trajectory [1] Trading Strategy - Caution is advised in trading; during upward movements, it is recommended not to chase prices aggressively until a confirmation of the upward trend is established [1] - If a pullback occurs at high levels, it may lead to buying at short-term peaks, which should be avoided [1]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-07-08 一、指数走势 图 3：中证 1000 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 图 4：中证 500 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -10 -5 0 5 10 公用事业 非银金融 房地产 基础化工 建筑材料 电力设备 煤炭 交通运输 纺织服饰 建筑装饰 轻工制造 农林牧渔 美容护理 银行 环保 钢铁 商贸零售 石油石化 社会服务 食品饮料 计算机 家用电器 国防军工 传媒 通信 有色金属 汽车 机械设备 电子 医药生物 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 07 月 07 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.02%，收于 3473.13 点，成交额 4761.97 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.7%，收于 10435.51 点，成交额 7324.44 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.24%，成交额 2648.35 亿元，其中开盘价 6305.04，收盘价 6327.14，当日最高价 6333.51，最低价 6303.86； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.19%，成交额 1657.59 亿元，其中开盘价 5901.4，收盘价 5900.41，当日最高价 5910.8 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月06日 基金周报 首只公募 REITs 十年封闭期将满，北交所迈入"双指数"时代 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周A股市场主要宽基指数走势出现分化，中小板指、沪 深 300、创业板指指数收益靠前，收益分别为 1.83%、1.54%、1.50%， 科创 50、中证 1000、中证 500 指数收益靠后，收益分别为-0.35%、 0.56%、0.81%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。行业方面，上周 钢铁、银行、建材收益靠前，收益分别为 5.27%、3.78%、3.63%，综 合金融、计算机、综合收益靠后，收益分别为-4.45%、-0.86%、-0.72%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净回笼资金 13753 亿元，逆回购到期 20275 亿元，净公开市场投放 6522 亿元。除 7 年期外，不同期限的国债利率 均有所下行，利差扩大 0.61BP。 上周共上报 43 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所增加。申报的产品包括 2 只FOF，1 只QDII，南方中证通用航空主题ETF、华泰柏瑞中证通用航 空主题ETF、平安中证通用航空主题ETF等。 7 月 4 日，证监 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-07-02 一、指数走势 07 月 01 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.39%，收于 3457.75 点，成交额 5535.57 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.11%，收于 10476.29 点，成交额 9124.59 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.28%，成交额 3343.02 亿元，其中开盘价 6358.06，收盘价 6373.77，当日最高价 6373.77，最低价 6308.06； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.33%，成交额 2135.96 亿元，其中开盘价 5915.8，收盘价 5934.67，当日最高价 5936.92，最低价 5890.11； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.17%，成交额 2360.7 亿元，其中开盘价 3935.91，收盘价 3942.76，当日最高价 3946.25，最低价 3924.72； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.21%，成交额 661.44 亿元，其中开盘价 2714.97，收盘价 2717.71，当日最高价 2721.4，最低价 2708.19。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（%） 图表 ...